Good Thursday evening, gang. Our cold front is marching across the state with gusty showers and thunderstorms, and a big time temperature drop. This will set the stage for much colder temps over the next few days and the potential for a little ice in the north.
My thoughts on the next few days have not changed much at all. Ice is possible in the north and west through Saturday with chilly showers elsewhere.
The pattern will then turn back toward a milder one with showers and thunderstorms returning in waves next week. This southwest to northeast flow can put down heavy rains into our region…
European Model
GFS Ensembles
A lot of water can fall across our region over the next week and change.
Once past this week ahead, winter threatens to take over just around the same time it has each of the past 3 winters. That’s something I didn’t think would happen this year, but mother nature does her own thing. This is what I’ve been alluding to over the past few weeks.
Dr. Judah Cohen has a series of tweets explaining how this pattern threatens to go into the tank…
GFS predicting strong poleward heat flux and warm #polar stratosphere first time since December-confidence growing in stratospheric #warming pic.twitter.com/0eYVu92U9p
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 12, 2017
With strong #blocking predicted in northeastern Canada, probability of #snowfall across northern and eastern US increases in late January. pic.twitter.com/zZ6UIUmamL
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 12, 2017
GFS (& ECMWF) consistently predicting #polarvortex displacement towards Eurasia, if verifies no need to wake up any rodents on #GroundhogDay pic.twitter.com/CACfNAYJ2t
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 12, 2017
Right on cue, we are seeing the operational models and the ensembles going in that direction. The latest GFS…
I leave you with your regional radar and temperature map to track the current changes…
Have a great evening and take care.
So winter “may” return in a week or so? My long range weather apps say differently but I’m hoping you are right Chris. The sleds are gathering dust and if it stays this warm in gonna have to dust off my lawn mower! I’ll take warmer temps, but my kids do enjoy a snow day or two!
Just look at europe right now, that will shift here!!
Yep.
Believe “back to winter” when I see it!
Hope folks don’t get too much ice.
I believe!!!!! Snow will come.
Oh well, can’t have a mic drop moment every year.
Glad to see winter makes a return ( or at least has a chance)
Thanks CB for including Dr. Cohen’s comments. He’s my go-to guy when discussing the Arctic Oscillation and it’s effects on our winter weather @ http://www.aer.com