Good MLK Day to one and all. On this day we honor the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King, we find milder air continuing to surge into the region. This will cause some thunderstorms to blow up later this evening as we have an action packed pattern ahead.
Temps today have been slower to respond than I thought, but the numbers continue to rise as the warm fronts lifts to our north. This allows showers and some thunderstorms to go up across the west. A few of the storms may be strong across that area before weakening as they head northeast…
The showers and thunder will carry us into Tuesday before a one day break in the action on Wednesday. This will lead to slightly chillier air before another surge of mild and storms by Thursday. Locally heavy rains carry us into Friday.
You think we get a break after that? Nope. Here comes the monster upper low this weekend into early next week. The GFS is finally getting on board…
Here’s the surface map from that same model run…
That type of track would give us thunderstorms and heavy rain to start with the possibility of snow under the track of the upper low. High winds would also be a big issue.
As I’ve said, wild things can happen with big upper lows like that.
That’s the system that unleashes the back loaded winter scenario for the 4th straight year. The GFS Ensembles show a very cold look later next week…
It’s one extreme to the other and that seems to be the calling card of this winter.
I will have another update coming your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. Guess its time to buckle up and hang on again! Have a great afternoon everyone.
Kyt has 61 degrees on sunday.
Chris what do mean by the above models can lead to some wild weather? To me it looks like the same old thing, spike temps, rain, turn a little cold on back end. What’s different???
A few weeks back when it did get cold for maybe 5 days, you showed models leading up to that but did you see or think it would only last for a little bit and then go back to rain 50’s and 60’s?
I guess I feel like it may get a little cold again or even maybe a lititle snow, but then go back up to 50 and 60’s right after.
Yes same old boring snow less cold Tenn cut off low bringing warm air aloft heavy rain then backside flurries then cold .rinse and repeat.ohio if anybody stands a low chance at a good snow.boring for kentucky.
This guy is always so super positive. Gotta love him. Winning!
This first storm will come around colder and stronger with rain and snow. We need it to Unleash the cold. Then BAM an Apps runner with a few more lows following that one. Going to me a wild Feb and March.
If this pattern persists through April and May we will really have to watch for several severe storm outbreaks as well. Something we haven’t seen for awhile.
I’ll take 80 and sunny with low humidity
I guess I’m just just tired of seeing extreme and wild in winter time. My mind sees low temps. Snow, wind….but what it has come to mean is temps sore into the 60’s, rain thunderstorms, drop 25 degrees.
Based on the last three winters
It should be :
June – Sept = Summer
Oct – Jan = Fall
Feb – April = Winter
May = Spring
Very true. It’s hard to argue right now jan. 16th, outide sitting on back porch, partly sunny 65 in Central Ky. Looking at 7 day forecast, almost every day now till jan 23rd, temps in the 60’s.
Definitely fit winter. We will see if Feb and March is going to act like winter.
I still think CB’s outlook is legit and we will see the usual 32 degrees and below, mainly dry. If we do see bigger frozen stuff, it would likely be the kind we do not want. Just like CB’s outlook suggests.
Winter is probably back loaded for a bunch of Lucy football spots 🙂
Part of this is willing it away. Shoveling ain’t no fun. Word.
Heck, summer this year went into the first part of November!
18 z shows ridge building back in east by February 1st. Bla bla weather comming.one very well surpressed storm down in Georgia
18z shows ridge building on February the 1st??? Are you kidding me? One model run over two weeks away showing a ridge building in the east are you being serious right now??? That will change 12,000 times between now and then. Your the same person two weeks ago saying wait till February big time snows are coming. Smh
I just don’t know what to take out of these models. December was always one week away from cold and snow and nothing much happened. Models showed the 2nd half of this month turning cold and now we are looking above average until at least the 23rd.
February might be loaded but it will not lay long. Only about four more weeks that normally produce a prolonged periods of cold. Average highs hit the 50s around February 15 here in southern KY.
We may have some cold on the way. When it arrives, it will be dry and overcast, when it leaves it will rain for 5 out of 7 days. Sadly we all know this pattern well.
I told you all a week ago, put a fork in real winter…I stand by it. A backloaded winter around here means a little cold with some snow, then a day later comes a temp spike and it all melts. Just look at last couple of years….YAWN. Come on Spring