Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another wet day across the bluegrass state as our latest round of showers and thunderstorms slowly pushes to our east. While we may get one dry day after it, don’t let it spoil you, this pattern is loaded with action as we roll ahead.
Old Man Winter is in hiding now, but has his eyes set on another back loaded winter. I’ll get to that in a bit.
Let us start with the conditions out there today. Gusty showers and thunderstorms will be noted this morning, with linger showers across the central and east this afternoon. Temps will spike into the 60s early, then fall behind a cold front late today…
Wednesday continues to look dry… did you heat that? DRY! Highs will be much chillier with readings in the 40s as clouds linger, though some sun tries to break through.
Don’t let Wednesday fool ya, more rain moves in quickly on Thursday and carries us into Friday. The showers and storms will increase from the southwest during this time…
That can easily drop another inch or two of rain.
All of this will be followed up by a massive slow-moving storm system later this weekend into early next week. This will be a monster of a storm bringing heavy rain, thunder and high winds to the region from late Saturday through Monday. Once the core of the upper low passes over us, it’s possible for some wet snows to try and get into the picture. Here’s the GFS…
The European Model is very similar…
Again, that’s a massive storm system taking shape. Any other air mass in front of this but the toasty one we have now, would have made for a serious WOW winter storm. SMH
All of this leads us into a familiar pattern we have seen in many of the past several winters. It’s one where the worst comes during the second half of winter and it has the potential to get downright nasty for much of the country.
The GFS Ensembles are pretty awesome to look at. Watch how the warm anomalies get pushed into Canada as the cold grows underneath into the United States. Then, watch how that warm blob in Canada gets wiped out with an arctic connection aimed right into the cold across the US…
Nothing like going from one extreme to the other in the blink of an eye! For my money, that’s one of the most telling animations I’ve posted on this blog.
I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
Be nice if we get some Rolocoaster action. Need CB to hint at threat though to get the ride going. Do we want to place bets on if the word Threat becomes a key forecast word in CB’s posts this winter?
Chances?
40% No
40% Ice & mix
20% Snow & mix
The $100,000.00 question is: Will there be precipitation when that cold air arrives?
80% Dry
15% Overrunning Warm / Ice
5% Snow
Hopefully I am wrong and CB uses THREAT numerous times before all said and done.
On this date in 2012 was a rather prolific tornado outbreak which included Kentucky.
http://www.weather.gov/lmk/jan17_2012
Even though the strongest twister was “only” an EF-2, still a rather notable outbreak considering it was winter. Indeed, in all of Kentucky’s recorded history, only two EF-4s have happened in the state during January….. and perhaps no big surprise both EF-4s have been in far western Kentucky with its lower elevations among other factors allowing somewhat warmer temperatures and a little more instability.
I was working in Bowling Green in January 2012, just prior to moving to Nashville. A work colleague had an iPhone which was on live radar showing the many Tornado Warnings including what turned out to be the EF-2 just south of us in Simpson and Allen Counties. We were glad to have a nice deep basement available!
Winter is over atleast not much snow, we might get single digits a couple of times but I say less than 3 inches of snow the rest of winter. This rain every day is killing me lets go on to summer if we’re not getting snow.
A very warm February comming to Kentucky. Lots of rain and thunderstorms. Then the quick 2 day seasonal chilly air.Then record warmth.just watch.
Coming from EF5’s mouth I’ll take what you say and go completely opposite. Your the very same person a few weeks back saying wait for February big snows just watch and see. You want some waffles???
Exactly. EF5snowfall says up, then I think down. He, or she, always seems to want to go against Chris Bailey.
Agree %100 EF5…Like Ive said put a for in real winter. Back loaded winter means chance of snow, temp increase and melt within a couple of days….boring….yawn meter at 10 for rest of winter Im afraid
that would be for(k) haha
Jim B here is a suggestion if you want to quit yawning head to Minnesota take EF5 with you. You’ll quit yawning and EF5 will have all the snow one could handle. You both can be content, its a win/win for everyone.
Meh. Snow anywhere gets old after a few days. Most folks in the north do not love the snow. Even kids get tired of it.
The three events we had in the past two winters got old after a few days. Snow is a thing to visit, but wouldn’t want it to stay long.
Your darn skippy, look at the bright side at least you don’t have to shovel rain
Best comment of the day!
Ah, come on Prelude, be nice. People look at things differently, and Mr. Bailey gives us that opportunity with the hard work he does, and info he provides. That is what this blog is for, take his knowledge and expertise and formulate conversations based on it….I realize in 3 days we are entering an era where it will be expected to all think alike, and be of the same opinion about everything, but come on man be nice
That is nice
Not really defending EF5 (because I think he is trying to ruffle feathers), but what he just said does in fact coincide with Chris original winter outlook….which face the facts, it does look as though that might pan out. Sure we may get a shot of cold next week but there are no indications of that lasting more than a few days nor are there any indications of us getting anything snow wise more than an ankle biter depending on location in the next few weeks. After mid Feb, those chances dwindle drastically on a daily basis. Bottom line, it’s not looking good for snow lovers and it’s looking even worse for those of us who are sick to death of rain.
Dont give this person the time of day, move on and don’t respond.
CB nailed it saying if only we had the cold with this we would have a whopper of a snowstorm. That is the story of our winter in a nutshell so far. It’s only January though, don’t believe the naysayers. Always have hope.
CB, you keep mentioning a back loaded winter. I thought I knew what that meant. Everyone knows I love poring over data, but I cannot make the data line up for the past 3 years of back loaded winters for central Kentucky.
Are you referring to cold, snow, both, and what specific time period? Personally, a true back loaded winter occurred during the Feb/Mar 2015 time period with cold and snow for 3 weeks region wide.
Perhaps a better phrase is back loaded events.
The next 10 days look like more of the same. I have hope that after that we turn a corner!! Bring back winter!
Thanks Chris. Appreciate the update.