Good afternoon, neighbors. Soggy weather rolls on across the bluegrass state with several areas picking up another inch or so of rain last night. Additional showers are out there this afternoon for some, and the pattern is loaded with more heavy rains later this week into the weekend.
This afternoon’s showers will be mainly across the south and east…
We get a chilly break from the rain on Wednesday, but things quickly turn soggy again by Thursday and Friday. Watch how another southern system roars in from the southwest…
That can easily drop another 1″-2″ of rain on top of Kentucky.
This sets the stage for some possible high water issues later this weekend into Monday. That’s when the big daddy system develops and slowly works across our region…
Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be noted, and this will fall on soaked ground with swollen waterways. The potential for high water is real and something we have to keep a very close eye on going forward.
The last 2 runs of the GFS show areas of 4″ rains through Monday…
Believe it or not, there is a good chance the model is underdone with the rain totals.
In addition to the heavy rain, the winds are going to be absolutely cranking. 50mph gusts will be possible at times with such a powerful low on top of us.
There is the chance for some flakes getting into the action by Monday as the upper low passes over us.
From there, winter takes control with another system moving in after the “big daddy”. Looking at the pattern, there’s a good chance to get snow on the ground before the month is over. That’s especially the case with these temps taking control in the final week of January…
I will update things later today. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.
Will the cold stick around or will it be short lived…seems like we get some cold and then right back to spring…lol
I’m hoping it sticks around for a while.
Backloaded winter……IMO is for cold and snow to be the predominant weather over the next two months. We will have our warm spikes, but they are needed to pull in the moisture. If the cold is able to settle in for a few weeks and the Southern Jet stays active we could be in for a few threat level storms.
Thank you…I read some posts and you would think that Spring is here to stay…lol…
Seems it is already being diminished, since now not looking like much snow later this month, based on CB’s update.
If Big Daddy is rain, so what does that mean mom and the kids?
You’re way over thinking this bubba lol
Yep!
The cold probably wont stay long, maybe 3 or 4 days cold/dry until it heats up and rains again. Accuweather says no snow in the east for the next 8 to 10 days. If that happens we will be done with January.
There’s your problem one word Accuweather
LOL…Accuweather is No different from your local 10 day forecast, phone App, or The Weather Channel for that matter.
The snow/cold gets so old very quickly – the 2015/feb/mar had mostly 3 weeks of cold and snow on the ground. Within a week, I was already sick of it. Those events also “reset” the (how long has it been since our last big storm)
I can’t determine by what Chris is saying if he thinks this will be prolonged cold or not. And with much precip or not.
Look at the USA national temp map – A lot of areas way up north are well above freezing right now. I’d say the snow cover in the eastern half of the USA is not that great at all. I mean, Pittsburg right now is in the mid 50s.
Things can change so quickly and it will only take one big storm with a solid week of cold to make us completely forget this non-winter-storm event winter so far. Sort of like March 1993 back in western NC. We had zilch,zero, nada winter up until that point. And it only took that one horrible storm for all of us to forget how boring that winter was up until that point.
That pretty much sums up the three big events we had the past two winters and some folks seeming to have forgotten. I have not! No snow is OK for me 🙂 At least no heavy snows 🙂
Still, CB’s outlook has panned out and I expect the back-loaded stuff to be what he outlooked- cold spikes with ice chances. 2009 was the last one. Seems we are statistically and sadly due.
I know it’s the GFS, but the ensembles for the extended analogs does try to place a higher percentage of snowfall in excess of 2″ by the 29th through the 31st for eastern Kentucky. That same time period shows a likely chance for below normal temperatures for much of the U.S.
Seems that with the saturated ground and several more inches of rain to come that root systems of some trees have been weekend. It there are any wet/heavy snows to come we’ll probably be seeing trees come down around us.
Not advocating for snow, but if getting cold again would mean the rain would stop, then I’m all for cold temps. Enough already with the rain.
Looks like very warm air comming for February. A chilly start but that eastern ridge builds right back in with lots of flooding possibilities. Lucky to see more than two Inc he of snow the rest of winter
Blah blah blah blah….. you jump the fence so many times. Snow no snow wait till February lots of snow now it’s no snow. Wait and see this wait and see that. Your more confused than Mike Tyson in a spelling bee.
I just follow latest model trends. Like it or not
Well if you were following the latest model trends correctly you would realize that your latest statement about February is about as inaccurate as the officiating of a SEC basketball game.
Please tell me why the 18z has the ridge building back feb.first??
Feb 1st? LoL like thats reliable its 2 weeks away nothing has been accurate from 2 weeks out.
Thanks Chris. I figure back loaded means we ain’t seen winter yet. I do have to say I have enjoyed the fact that my electric bill is down just a bit! But I also have to say I like a good snow, too. Guess we will se what happens. ?have a great afternoon and evening everyone.