Good Wednesday afternoon, folks. It’s another gloomy day in the bluegrass state, but at least it isn’t raining. Enjoy it because that will change quickly on Thursday. Another push of very heavy rain is likely across the region and this can lead to some flooding problems.

The heaviest rains will fall across the central and western parts of the state. The NAM is now showing a swath of 1″-3″ of rain…

NAM

The GFS isn’t quite as heavy, but you can definitely see a similar setup…

GFS Rain

With a waterlogged ground and many creeks and rivers running on the high side, it won’t take much to cause some flooding problems. I would expect Flash Flood Watches to be issued for the central and west.

That system moves out of here by midday Friday with a spring surge coming in behind it. The 60s are back in town into Saturday as we await a bigger system to impact the region this weekend and early next week.

The GFS shows this powerhouse…

GFS

That’s a colder look for later Sunday into early next week.

The Canadian Model is even colder and has a transition to some snow by later Monday into Tuesday morning…

Canadian

Where is a cold high to the north when you need one? The track on that system would be perfect for a shutdown storm if we had that high.

As is, we have to watch for a lot of rain, some thunderstorms and high winds.

Winter returns after we get that system out of the way. The end of next week into the following weekend continues to show up very well on the models…

GFS 2

I will have another update later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.