Good Wednesday afternoon, folks. It’s another gloomy day in the bluegrass state, but at least it isn’t raining. Enjoy it because that will change quickly on Thursday. Another push of very heavy rain is likely across the region and this can lead to some flooding problems.
The heaviest rains will fall across the central and western parts of the state. The NAM is now showing a swath of 1″-3″ of rain…
The GFS isn’t quite as heavy, but you can definitely see a similar setup…
With a waterlogged ground and many creeks and rivers running on the high side, it won’t take much to cause some flooding problems. I would expect Flash Flood Watches to be issued for the central and west.
That system moves out of here by midday Friday with a spring surge coming in behind it. The 60s are back in town into Saturday as we await a bigger system to impact the region this weekend and early next week.
The GFS shows this powerhouse…
That’s a colder look for later Sunday into early next week.
The Canadian Model is even colder and has a transition to some snow by later Monday into Tuesday morning…
Where is a cold high to the north when you need one? The track on that system would be perfect for a shutdown storm if we had that high.
As is, we have to watch for a lot of rain, some thunderstorms and high winds.
Winter returns after we get that system out of the way. The end of next week into the following weekend continues to show up very well on the models…
I will have another update later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.
Thanks Chris. Lots of rain and warmth seems to be the theme for the next 7 days or so. In lieu of the last 2 Winters we shouldn’t be sticking a fork in Winter yet, it is only January 18th after all. I bet we get at least 1 or 2 “Winter Storm Alerts” through the next month and a half.
Hoping for some snow for this 2nd half of winter!
Rodger appreciates Mr Bailey’s dedication to this blog even in the face of this un-eventful non-winter weather stretch in the middle of winter – ugh! Rodger in Dodger
As Thelma Lou says…..always the bridesmaid, never the bride!
If you love snow January and February are not going to be snowy at all.deffintly some cold shots but with dry air.this winter is over.
Sounds like a plan, if it’s true, why r u still cheking his site to see what Chris is thinking?
EF5, dont speak of such nonsense haha….I completely agree, as CBs pre-winter predictions look to be right on the money….Ol jim b been stating that for a while, maybe things turn, but I doubt it….YAWN meter still a strong 10 til next winter, put a fork in it.
And the farmer hauled another load away
Jim B since you and EF5 know more about weather than paid mets who have a degree, (don’t say your stating your opinion your both manipulatively defiant) you claim winter is done put a fork in it that means that we shall not hear from the both of you till next winter, right? Buh-Bye!!!
Prelude sensitive haha…doesnt read very well either, apparently. I stated in my last post that CB has pretty much hit his pre-winter forecast on the money. You do entertain me Prelude, thanks for that haha. It will be ok buddy. haha
And apparently you don’t pay attention to CB’s latest comments stating that late January into February is not matching up with his initial thoughts of his winter forecast. P.S definitely not sensitive you both just annoy the fire out of us regulars. Your both like a couple of flies you just can’t squat.
I agree with EF and jim. CB seems to have nailed the outlook and see no reason to deviate. I am fairly (kind of) confident we will see the usual “moisture mainly gone when cold air arrives”. If we do get the cold air, I can see Fencetucky right in the main spot for warm air aloft.
JMO and would prefer to at least be wrong on the WAA.
Hope we have some big snows during the month of February. Every meterologist predicted over a foot of snow in the Ohio Valley. I haven’t given up on our winter at this time. BOTS
There are some real “know-it-alls” on this blog that in reality know absolutely nothing…I won’t mention any names but I’m gonna stick to Chris’s forecast and to what the regulars say on here….seems like this winter has brought out some bad apples on here LOL
Snow or not I just enjoy weather and reading cb’ s blog. For the record I hop somehow we get a snowstorm. But things just don’t look good. I’m sure that some very light coatings will occur. I starting to think this is not a weather blog but rather aa snow cult.jeez
Here you go again with your multiple personalities playing the devils advocate roll.
Patterns change EF….Just have faith that we will have that one big snowstorm and it just may happen. The pattern up until later next weak has been pretty much the same. But, looking at analogs we could be for a cold a snowy backloaded winter. No cult here just love that we even have a winter season and a chance at snow.
Question – about the 2 maps Chris shows of GFS and Euro showing the powerhouse storm.
I noticed that you see deep greens and reds, but I noticed hardly any green or reds are showing up for cent KY on that map – is that like a radar simulation map or something?
Yep. I am not seeing much indication of big snow around here though. Seems more like the little drive-by MSTS events we usually get. More salt than snow.
The 12z Euro has a Big storm to the S/SE with cold temps. A new hope?
Link please?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017011812&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=567
It would have to trend a little NW, but it is 10 days away.
Pick our poison. If the cold air is going dominate, this event would stay to our south, just like the last big snow did.
There will most likely will be some more cold days coming up. But after January our chances decrease daily. I just feel this going to be like last year, if we get anything it will come in one event. I don’t think there will be any extended snowy periods.
I’ll take 1 big event that can last for about a week. Sign me up
Never leave March out as far snow possibilities. We may dread this warm period were having and ole man winter will make us paid for it.
I’m excited about the pattern shift. It sure has been a roller coaster this winter. No reason it can’t muster up another cold wave with some snow chances. Chris has seen these things coming before and done a great job of laying out the possibilities. We’re only about half way through winter.
If we’re a cult, do we get robes?
I have a bunch of winter coats and a gas furnace for sell. The tropics of Florida, I mean Kentucky, is a good winter destination. Without the rain, I bet the snowbirds would of liked to save their money and stay home this winter. I’ve worn short sleeves more days in January than I can ever recall.
Bring on the pattern change with snow or just keep these mild temps going until spring.