Good Thursday, everybody. Rounds of heavy rain continue to take aim at the bluegrass state today, and this may cause some local high water issues. We will track that, a big storm system lurking for the weekend, and winter weather on the way later next week.
Today’s rain will increase from southwest to northeast through this evening. The central and western parts of the state will see the most rain through Friday morning with a general 1″-2″. We have a saturated ground and our waterways are running high, so some local high water issues may develop.
The main shield of rain moves away pretty quickly on Friday, but leftover showers may remain. Temps will then take off with a mix of sun and clouds. Readings by Friday afternoon can reach deeeeep into the 60s and do so again on Saturday. Winds will crank from the southwest during this time.
That’s when all the focus turns to a big storm system rumbling into our region. This has been a well advertised cutoff low and has been yapped about on here for more than a week. Scattered showers and a rumble of thunder will be possible ahead of this system on Saturday.
As the storm comes together and passes west to east just to our south, it can bring very gusty winds to go along with rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday night through early Monday.
Exactly where that low tracks will be the determining factor on whether or not it gives us enough rain to cause problems. The NAM goes out to Sunday morning and has the low in a position to raise high water concerns…
The GFS is just a smidge farther south…
The Canadian Model is similar to the NAM, but more disjointed with the low pressure…
Winter returns later next week as a much colder pattern settles in. This has been well advertised for a long time and the numbers will keep growing colder for the final week of the month. You can see the 5 day average deviations showing the heart of the cold on top of us…
Snow chances will accompany these cold shots as we head into another back loaded winter.
I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.
Well, this month looks to be a top 10 warmest January contender, at least for SE KY. I am closing in on 10 degrees above average here for Harlan monthly temp departure. Now, can we have the polar opposite for February and up with at least a few good weeks of winter…we will soon see!
I don’t mind the snows in February. But when March gets here, I’m ready for warmer days of spring.
Where is Mr. Know it all EF5? He is not trolling here yet…
He’s probably still asleep and dreaming of his early spring!
19 more saturdays until boating season! Still hoping for a couple decent snows along the way.
Winter is over bring on Summer & skip all of this rain
I wonder how the total snowfall totals will match up with what Chris predicted in his winter forecast…the lack of snow in December and the first of January may put him off some OR February and March will have to get with it….LOL
A couple af models are showing a warm ridge building back in around the 3 of February. The Same old pattern will take over for rest of winter.
As much as I hate to say it, you may be right. Models have overstated the cold this winter. We may get lucky and get a whopper of a snowstorm, but winter skipping December and January lowers the chances.
Don’t entertain his foolishness…he’s a troll
Final warning on the trolling. You will be banned next time.
Him and jim b too. 😉
Ok then since I can not have an opinion and that’s all it is I’ll just stop comming here.very confused d I’m not trolling. I have studied weather for ten years.
Dude, it’s all in how you present your comments. You can disagree, but every post you make is VERY obviously thrown in direct opposition of what Bailey is saying…every time and yes you are obviously trying to stir the pot.
Ive been guilty of opposing some of CBs thoughts myself (primarily because my area usually doesn’t coincide with his primary forecast area of central KY) but I nor no one else here goes against every thing he says as you do.
You had to of known this was coming I’m actually surprised CB let you carry on this long. Everytime CB would post you would completely contradict. I have disagree with CB before and will again but I would not disrespect his blog by completely contradicting everything he says. You need to realize at the end of the day this is CB’s blog he has the degree in meteorology he gets paid to forecast weather and we are all guests on his blog. Show a little curiosity and some respect it will take you a long way.
Haha, really?? I have not really seen any disrespectful remarks on this blog pertaining to the weather or to CB. I see a lot of people take the info that CB works hard to come up with and formulate what they feel may happen, or hope may happen. Hence, the reason to have a blog in the first place.
As a matter of fact Prelude, you have been the instigator of disrespect….I challenge you to find a post of mine that disrespected anyone on here….that wasnt in response to one of your jabs of course.
You are lying.
I’m beginning to think that EF5 and Jim B the same people
Again, Prelude with the rude comments. So, I will take that as a no to asking you to produce a post that I was direspectful….man raining cats and dogs right now, and a spring smell in the air, I could get used to that.
Thanks Chris. As I write this I have already read your midday update so for me this is icing on the cake. The possibility of some snow showing up makes me happy! I hope everyone stays warm and dry this afternoon! Have a great Friday Eve all!
CB doubted his winter outlook, but seems to be spot on. We may see a few small drive-by snows, but that will likely be it.
I said the comment about drive-by snows two winters ago and we got two mega snows instead. Will the cold buddy up with the moisture again and make it three years in a row???
We need at least one Rolocoaster event 🙂