Good Thursday, everybody. Rounds of heavy rain continue to take aim at the bluegrass state today, and this may cause some local high water issues. We will track that, a big storm system lurking for the weekend, and winter weather on the way later next week.

Today’s rain will increase from southwest to northeast through this evening. The central and western parts of the state will see the most rain through Friday morning with a general 1″-2″. We have a saturated ground and our waterways are running high, so some local high water issues may develop.

The main shield of rain moves away pretty quickly on Friday, but leftover showers may remain. Temps will then take off with a mix of sun and clouds. Readings by Friday afternoon can reach deeeeep into the 60s and do so again on Saturday. Winds will crank from the southwest during this time.

That’s when all the focus turns to a big storm system rumbling into our region. This has been a well advertised cutoff low and has been yapped about on here for more than a week. Scattered showers and a rumble of thunder will be possible ahead of this system on Saturday.

As the storm comes together and passes west to east just to our south, it can bring very gusty winds to go along with rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday night through early Monday.

Exactly where that low tracks will be the determining factor on whether or not it gives us enough rain to cause problems. The NAM goes out to Sunday morning and has the low in a position to raise high water concerns…

NAM

The GFS is just a smidge farther south…

GFS 4

The Canadian Model is similar to the NAM, but more disjointed with the low pressure…

Canadian

Winter returns later next week as a much colder pattern settles in. This has been well advertised for a long time and the numbers will keep growing colder for the final week of the month. You can see the 5 day average deviations showing the heart of the cold on top of us…

GFS Temps

Snow chances will accompany these cold shots as we head into another back loaded winter.

I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.