Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the heavy rains moving in and the heavy rains on the way later this weekend. Oh, and the winter weather likely to follow later next week.

Rain continues to develop from southwest to northeast and will become heavy at times. The models continue to point toward a general 1″-2″ of rain across the central part of the state…

NAM

A few spots can exceed the 2″ mark. With a saturated ground and swollen waterways, local flooding issues may develop. That’s something to keep a very close eye on. Watches are overrated.

Here’s regional radar to track the increase in the action…

The weekend system will throw some scattered stuff in here on Saturday as temps spike into the 60s.

The exact track of the big storm is still in question for Sunday and Monday, but the NAM shows this system rolling right across Kentucky…

NAM 3

That’s a very impressive system with heavy rain, high winds and some thunder. Here’s what that run of the NAM is spitting out for rainfall just for rainfall on Sunday through 7pm…

NAM 2

Obviously, if the NAM is correct, we are going to have some flooding issues Sunday and Monday. The GFS continues to be just a bit farther south with the heaviest rains in Tennessee. Given this looks like a winter system, I wonder if the GFS is treating it like one and showing it farther south than it actually will be?

After all this, here comes winter for the second part of next week. The first system arrives from the northwest with some light snow possible…

GFS 2

Additional systems then dive in here on the GFS…

GFS 3

Here’s a true clipper showing up…

GFS 4

And then a super clipper after that…

GFS 5

Back loaded winter ahead.

I will update things later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.