Good Friday, folks. The latest round of heavy rain is pushing across the region very early today. This is leaving behind another 1″-2″ for some parts of the state. Now we focus on another system that can bring heavy rains to the region again later this weekend. This super active pattern is ushering in a back loaded winter pattern settling in next week.
The steady rain of this morning will exist to the northeast, but some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Winds will be very gusty as temps surge into the 60s. If we get enough sun in the south and southeast, 70 is possible. Wow!
Saturday is another mild day with a scattering of showers and thunderstorms. This action is ahead of the much bigger storm system rolling across the region Sunday into Monday.
The NAM continues to bring this system right on top of Kentucky…
That’s pretty awesome to watch the surface low spin around the upper level low. That actually shows up in the rainfall numbers from Saturday night trough Monday morning…
Notice the void in rain across the southeastern part of the state? That’s likely due to downsloping, where the southeasterly flow comes up and over the mountains, drying as it sinks. You don’t see that too often around here.
The Canadian is close to that…
The GFS Parallel is also very similar to the NAM…
After that system finally goes through, we see a true winter cold front arriving on Wednesday. As that presses through here, we have to watch for a wave of low to try and develop along it on Thursday…
Regardless of that potential low, a strong northwesterly flow sets in with several blasts of cold air diving in here…
That type of a flow is usually decent for snows to fly across our part of the world. Indeed, the GFS is showing several disturbances doing just that from late next week into early the following week…
I will update things later today, so check back. Enjoy your Friday and take care.
Thank you, CB! Happened to catch the end of a forecast last night, and the met said, “and for this weekend–yes, more rain and warmth”. When that met said that, there was a hint of almost being dejected. I think that met must be a snow lover. Then the met said,”true winter weather looks to return next week. It must be hard for snow loving mets to even talk about the warm wet weather, so thanks for giving details other than just saying it will rain.
Everything is relative. We have spring like weather now, so any winter weather will seem dramatic. Looks like any southern feds will be rain and maybe some mix, but clippers are the best shot for several inches.
CB, seems like this winter will be your outlook from the fall. Not much snow, but hopefully the bold chance for ice is a miss 😉
Thanks Chris. We appreciate your diligence. I noticed the other local mets are just now getting on board with the return to winter. Bailey ahead of the curve once more!
Lexington official reporting station at the airport has now registered measurable precipitation of at least 0.01″ for 10 consecutive days
Uh, make that 11 days now. It was raining after midnight too.
If we had cold with all this moisture….
Don’t kid yourself. Big moisture + cold air not a likely combo this winter. Rodger in Dodger
Misinformed birds out in the street making out because they think it’s Spring. Soon, they’ll be trying to build a nest with a ground completely covered in snow. Mama bird not going to be happy about that.
I am a bit pessimistic about the snow talk but this looks be an ugly March and quite possibly colder monthly average than February for sure…not good for the early fruit trees but maybe good to prevent more trees/plants from coming out too soon!