Good Friday, folks. The latest round of heavy rain is pushing across the region very early today. This is leaving behind another 1″-2″ for some parts of the state. Now we focus on another system that can bring heavy rains to the region again later this weekend. This super active pattern is ushering in a back loaded winter pattern settling in next week.

The steady rain of this morning will exist to the northeast, but some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Winds will be very gusty as temps surge into the 60s. If we get enough sun in the south and southeast, 70 is possible. Wow!

Saturday is another mild day with a scattering of showers and thunderstorms. This action is ahead of the much bigger storm system rolling across the region Sunday into Monday.

The NAM continues to bring this system right on top of Kentucky…

nam GIF 2

That’s pretty awesome to watch the surface low spin around the upper level low. That actually shows up in the rainfall numbers from Saturday night trough Monday morning…

NAM

Notice the void in rain across the southeastern part of the state? That’s likely due to downsloping, where the southeasterly flow comes up and over the mountains, drying as it sinks. You don’t see that too often around here.

The Canadian is close to that…

canadian

The GFS Parallel is also very similar to the NAM…

GFS

After that system finally goes through, we see a true winter cold front arriving on Wednesday. As that presses through here, we have to watch for a wave of low to try and develop along it on Thursday…

GFS 6

Regardless of that potential low, a strong northwesterly flow sets in with several blasts of cold air diving in here…

GFS Temps

That type of a flow is usually decent for snows to fly across our part of the world. Indeed, the GFS is showing several disturbances doing just that from late next week into early the following week…

GFS Snow 2

I will update things later today, so check back. Enjoy your Friday and take care.