Good Saturday, everyone. We have a very spring feel to the air across the region today. While this bodes well for today, it’s not going to help our cause as we head into Sunday. That’s when a massive storm system rolls into the region with high winds, heavy rain and some thunderstorms.
Let me begin with today’s ridiculousness. Highs will reach 65-70 in many areas and we could see a record or two threatened. Winds will be gusty from the southwest with isolated showers and storms possible. Strong storms will be possible in the west and southwest by evening.
The main show arrives on Sunday. This is a system that has been talked about on here for well over a week now, and it’s a monster. This will likely cause issues around here Sunday into Monday with winds that can reach 40mph or greater, thunderstorms, and enough rain to cause flooding.
Watch how the NAM spins one potent storm into western Kentucky, before giving way to the big daddy along the Appalachian Mountains…
The GFS is very, very, very similar…
I warned the GFS lovers it would be too far south, and it has corrected toward what the pattern dictates and what the model had been showing before.
Both models are now keying on enough rain to potentially cause some big issues across the region. Look how similar they are…
NAM
GFS
There’s some ugly on those rain maps for the eastern half of the state.
The high wind threat will come at us in two waves. The first arrives late tonight into early Sunday as the low approaches from the west. As the low cranks to our southeast Sunday night and Monday, winds will absolutely howl and could gust well past 40mph at times.
Colder air slowly pushes in by Monday night and early Tuesday, and that could result in a few flakes in the mountains before it all tapers off.
Speaking of some flakes, late next week into next weekend will find us in a strong northwesterly flow with several weak systems diving in here from the northwest. That setup is usually a good one to get periods of light snow and snow showers and squalls to crank up.
The GFS snowfall map from Thursday through Monday…
Keep in mind… that’s spread out over several days and shows snowfall and NOT snow depth. Oh and it’s just a snapshot of one model run. Coverage and amounts always change from run to run.
If you’re into winters featuring cold and snow during the second half of the season, then you are loving the look of this animation through the first week of February…
Updates come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.
I was not expecting to start out at 40 degrees this morning
What were your expectations? I’m starting at 51 degrees
It’s 39 now the forecast at 11 was for temps to maintain what they were at 11 which was mid 50s
Gotcha
Late February snows are like cup cakes at a birthday party. They don’t last long.
I just saw this post from the CPC’s 8 to 14 day outlook has us below normal in temperatures from January 28th to February 4th. There 8 to 14 day precipitation outlook is below normal precipitation. Beyond the 14 days temperatures look to set-up back to more of a mild pattern. The 3 to 4 week temperature outlook is back to above normal valid February 4th-17th. Still no signs of a good snow. If the CPC is correct that would be pretty depressing. lol
Hence the reason a certain person has been saying put a fork in it for weeks now, which went along with CBs pre winter forecast, which is pretty anazing, considering he called that back in Oct. Nice call CB….and you’re welcome Prelude haha
Jim b, question for you? Where’s that certain person now?? You see what happen to your buddy EF5 he might of left on his own accord but he was about to be blocked, per CB. CB did not at all appreciate EF5’s trolling, complete disregard and disrespect. I’m sure if you keep up with your condescending sly remarks you’ll be eventually run off to. Nothing worse than two wanna be know it all’s. My guess is your yawn meter is set to expire.
For agreeing with CBs pre winter forecast, and giving him credit for it?? Not sure you are aware of what trolling is?? And the yawn meter is not directed at anyone’s forecast or opinions, it’s directed at Old Man Winter for holding out on is this season, that’s it, so maybe that’s where the confusion lys with you, or just way over sensitive. Either way, any opinion I have, or anyone has on this blog is usually based off CBs hard work. Period.
Now, can we get back to just talking about the weather.
I’m still here just have no comments since this is a censorship has been established.
I think we are at the point that we all know we will not be recalling the 2016-17 season as much of winter. It definitely don’t mean we want see one good storm yet but 2 to 3 weeks of cold weather isn’t really a winter, especially for people up north…probably laughing at us for discussing a back-loaded winter in January:)
The Sunday/Monday storm the mets in my neck of the woods don’t seem at all excited about it. There not showing much if any attention to that storm system. I guess there thinking is mostly a southern Kentucky issue than a north central Kentucky thing.
Hopefully we miss the big rain. This stuff is good during growing season. Not so much when plants and trees are practically dormant. Just mud. Water table is saturated.
100% agreed
35 Degrees in Jackson, Ohio at 10 till 8 am my place. Clear Skies.
Neat stuff, Chris. Thanks!
Go Big Blue.
Rodger’s momma said if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all! Rodger in Dodger
GFS long-range is predicting a monster of a system to hit the east coast around Feb 3. Down to 947mb.
Getting in on some early light rain atm
Our area looks to get quite a soaker over the next 2 days and change…some 4 inch amounts or greater are starting to look possible!
RIP Winter 2016-17
Winter is over move on to summer!
I believe this “winter” (quasi Spring) will go down as being one of the warmest in recent times. Thus far my area has had a total of around 7 days of real cold and only a skiff of winter precipitation since November. Will be get more cold days, sure…will their be more than 2-3 at a time before warming back to the 50’s-60’s, I seriously doubt it at this point.