Good Sunday, everyone. A big severe weather outbreak continues across the deep south and these storms may help us out a bit today. In the longer range, things continue to take on much more of a winter look.
Let’s start things off with the rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving into the region today. I mentioned the big severe weather outbreak in the deep south and how it may help us out a bit. How does that happen? Those storms may end up intercepting the moisture supply into Kentucky, or at least slowing it down some.
As a matter of fact, we may get through the early parts of the day without much action, with the bulk of the rain holding off until tonight.
The GFS continues to show some heft totals through Monday, but you can see how it has cut the totals down because of the southern storms…
That still shows some high amounts of rain across the southeast with a general 1″-2″. If the storms in the deep south slow down some, we would have a better chance of flooding rains across the eastern half of the state. We will see how that goes as the day wears on.
Winds will be a big player during this time and will really crank tonight and Monday as the low deepens to our east. Gusts of 40mph or greater will be possible.
The rain will pull away by early Tuesday as we await the arrival of a strong cold front by Wednesday. This will lead us into a much colder pattern that will keep throwing shots of cold at us into the first week of February…
Snow chances show up with each shot of cold passing in here. We have some light snow and snow showers moving in here as early as this coming Thursday.
The theme from the GFS Ensembles continues to be for a big uptick in those snow chances over the next 2 weeks…
I will update things again later today so check back. Enjoy your Sunday and take care.
I will have one e14 please.
Is there a Clipper flight out of Louisville this coming weekend?
Everyone else who wasn’t trying to overhype a few showers had this called right 5-6 days out. Looks like after a couple of days of winter in the 30s were back to the 50s for the “back loaded” winter.
So where’s your blog? I’m sure it’s great.
Well that’s just plain rude.
Surprised we/some are missing most of the heavy rain, since normally the snow we miss, but good miss for those that do. Soggy enough.
CB never touted much snow this winter and some clipper chances are not exactly shovel breakers. Anybody reading anything else into it is just creating their own dissapointment. Not CB.
True on CB never touting much snow for the second half. But honestly he did mention “normal to slightly above normal” and it would take a decent second half to get there. I was looking at his winter forecast and it seems that he may have been mostly spot on. I guess February, and the second half of winter, could be that back loaded one.
I “warned” CB to follow his winter outlook and not the week-out models. All they are doing is spotting a football to try and kick.
Easy for me to do though, since I ain’t a met 😉
His outlooks are usually pretty spot on but nobody is perfect. And given the way weather is I could see that making a winter outlook that much more challenging. If February is truly like his original outlook of milder weather that puts him almost spot on. The only miss would be the normal to slightly above normal snow. And we all know that in Kentucky that is hit or miss.
Plus, that ice storm. May have missed us but there was a big ice storm. Placement may not have hit us, which is perfect for us, but the ice storm still happened. That is a great call and pretty amazing to me. Just hope we do not see one like that as well.
Looks like your right on that Venice.
Venice is just EF5snowfall under another name.
Thanks Chris. We’re ready for a few snow shots. I’m with Bjenks – e14 for the win!
Long range models have been crap all winter. I would hate to be a met. First real cold of the month was predicted to be in the 2nd half of the month and it now is lucky to sneak in at the very end of the month.
February will have to be a monster to make up for a lack of winter up to this point. I’m just wondering how long this next cold shot is going to last. Once mid February gets here average highs get around 50 here in the southern part.
I see no where but here any talk of cold or snow!! It would definitely stink to be a met!! I can’t figure out why it seems no models can accurately produce a forecast. When I got up this morning and checked the radar I figured that CB would have a post like this! I’m thankful the rain is a bust because we have travel to do today!
Only one of those ensembles showing a “decent” snow of much more than a coating-to slightly more for the next couple weeks. And almost every source I’ve seen lately calling for a modest warm-up into the second week of February. I usually am always the first to remain positive when it comes to winter weather around here but this outlook is looking pretty bleak right now! Hopefully something will change.
Sorry, TWO of those ensembles show something decent. Forgot about the eC. 2 out Of 22. Sadly, still not a great percentage.
What does the blue represent? Does anyone know? 8 have a feeling it’s 2 inches or less. Over a 2 week spread, that’s at least a trace a day right??? Trying to remain optimistic.
South is going to get hammered again. This may be worse than yesterday.
“This will lead us into a much colder pattern that will keep throwing shots of cold at us into the first week of February.”
February 1 is a week from Wednesday. Does this mean the cold will only last about a week or does this mean it will last through the first week of February?
I’m wondering the same thing. Is this cold burst going to be like the short lived one in early January?
It has rained 16 out of 22 days in Knox Co. this month. All this moisture and only a dusting of snow 1 day. Average highs have been 52 degrees. I’m not complaining though. If no snow I would rather it be like this, minus some of the rain. I’ve actually went most of the month not even to wear a jacket. Will be interesting to see how long this upcoming cold decides to hang around.
Of course! Please do not forget the rarely compromised KY winter weather rule: Most precipitation falls when above 32 degrees. It’s science! 😉
If the pattern since early December persists then I see a short week and a half of cold with little snow to a warmup with rain. I have seen other forecasts for a more prominent cold shot that could last through Feb and into March with a couple warming trends inbedded.
At this point….who cares. It’s probably going to get a little cold for a week a few festive Flakes them back to spring-like weather.
Thanks Chris. While I do NOT wish for more Severe storms in the Deep South, a little less rain on us would also be welcome. Too bad we won’t/can’t have both. Am happy to see some colder weather and some snow chances in the upcoming week. Since I’m typing this after church, I’ll be anxious for the afternoon update. Hope everyone had a good morning.