Good Tuesday, everybody. Old Man Winter is ready to return to our part of the world before the week is over. This should bring about a period of colder than normal weather with several snow chances to go along with it. Basically, it’s a continuation of how our winters have been going of late… saving the worst (relatively speaking)Β for last.
We are coming off a massive storm system that produced historic severe weather in the deep south, and a huge snowstorm in the northeast. This system brought gusty winds and heavy rains to the bluegrass state, with flooding reported in several spots in the east.
As that system pulls away, clouds and some chilly showers linger today. Maybe a wet flake this morning for a few spots?
A true winter cold front moves in on Wednesday with very gusty winds and a line of showers sweeping in ahead of the boundary.
Behind it, much colder air blows in on Thursday as winds become northwesterly. Weak systems embedded within this flow will touch off periods of light snow and snow showers from Thursday through Saturday…
Winds are going to be very gusty during this time, giving us a true heart of winter look and feel.
The Sunday system continues to show signs of wanting to develop into something bigger as it drops into the base of the trough. Here’s the European…
The GFS looks similar…
The GFS snowfall map from Thursday through Monday…
Once again, that’s a cumulative map over a 4 day period and does not indicate actual snow depth. You probably won’t see those totals on the ground at one time. A little here… A little there… You get the idea.
With additional cold shots showing up over the next few weeks. We continue to watch the GFS Ensembles to see the areas being targeted for winter weather. That’s why I post the ensembles snow runs… Just to see which areas they believe have the best chance for snow. The latest run continues to point toward our region…
Given the look of the pattern… I see snow days. Hear that teachers and kiddos? Even though I am ready for spring, I’m still working for you guys. π
Updates come your way later today, so check back. Until then, enjoy the day and take care.
Thanks Chris. E4 looks like a doozy of a run. Looking forward to anything we can get here in East TN. Anything is better than cold rain…
4, 11,15 all strong signals of potential for the deep south..Puts us in the sweet spot here in TN..lol
So to be clear – those ensembles aren’t for the few days of snow showers coming up, but after that?
And I was looking forward to mowing my lawn next month. Oh well.
The Propaganda Minister aka as the GFS Esemble has spoken.
Well, at least our water table is caught up π Scenic snow time!
I’ll take panel 10 or 12. Winter can be over after that.
Maybe we can have several big snows in the next few weeks! BOTS
It’s not even February yet. How can anybody be ready for spring. Come March I’ll be on the spring train but until then give me a few good snows.
I’m the other way around. I scream fall/winter in July. I hate heat.
With a El Nino coming for the summer it just may be a cool one.
La Nina should be easing pretty soon, but atmospheric impacts could linger into the Spring as ENSO-neutral conditions develop by then. Don’t expect El Nino to become full-fledge by summer though. That takes time.
I don’t I recall CB wanting spring weather in January before either since The Kentucky Weather Center began…with such a dismal start to winter, I am not ready for more above average weather yet either!
I read this a lot here. November-December it is mostly about winter not being good. By early January it is that the snow is not going to happen. By the end of January-early February you have the call for spring. Even CB is on that a lot. I have read a number of times with him saying he is ready for spring. I look at the calendar and it is only the last week of January or the first of February. Just seems weird considering I have lived here my whole life and it just seems January-February-March are bigger months.
Are these the same ensembles that showed those snow chances in late November & December?
Yes
Sweet! Thanks CB!
Will we get to see a first call for snowfall map for the Thursday/Friday system coming through? Anyone?
No. They are drive by snows. If CB thinks the Sunday system can muster out more than an inch or two he may throw one out. Snowfall maps usually start with a threat level snow system, not with the drive by systems.
Thank you, is there a possibility for snow covered roads on Thursday/Friday?
Might be in the far South East. Really depends on timing and how cold it gets. Better chance if they arrive at night when it is colder than during the day when the sun is out. Should at least feel like winter though. Hopefully a precursor to what may come later…..A big snow event for the entire state.
This teacher thanks you, Mr. Bailey! Appreciate the updates, too!
Hey after seeing those pics of the 18″-20″ snow from last year, I’ll take anything to prime the pump. Drive-by’s, ankle biters, dustings, skiffs….whatever! Thanks Chris.
Go Big Blue!
Looks like the cold is set to return and return with a vengeance over the next month and a half. Backloaded winter number 3.
It won’t take much to back load this winter…average to above average temperatures for December, solidly above average temperatures for January, below average snowfall statewide so far. Even a couple of ankle biters for some will be all that is needed for a back loaded winter.
LOL, but you know the snow I am looking for is not an ankle biter. Don’t mind them at all just would like to have one thumping so we can have something besides March weather to remember this winter by.
Prelude, when you see the afternoon models can you give us an update for this weekends snow?
Just scattered snow showers nothing to exciting. On Sunday that’s the more potent event clipper system some light accumulations. I do feel like eastern Kentucky especially the mountains stand to get the most out of the Sunday clipper possibly get a few inches of snow there maybe a touch more.
Let me be clear, I am talking about the higher elevations in eastern Kentucky.
Prelude what is Huntington WV looking lIke for Sunday? Thanks in advance!
Pretty much same deal as Kentucky off and on festive snow showers light accumulations possible. (Coating to maybe a inch of snow if lucky) Nothing to write home about but at the very least it’ll look and feel more like winter.
Take what we can get. Thanks again!
Man, the ol yawn meter wants to move, but right now it looks like a mere crop dusting of snow coming our way, with a warm up directly behind it. Old Man Winter is teasing us Im afraid, shame.
16 days of cold weather is not a warm up behind this weekends system. Yawn meter will go down IMO over the next two to three weeks.
Hope youre right, been stuck at 10 for a long time
I was reading a post that Louisville has only had two hours of sunshine in the past 16 days. How sad is that!?! Luckily today Louisville will end that streak as the clouds have finally gave way to sun.
good ol JB’s post
THINK SNOW! Before I found CB he was the man.
We all know who the best Met in Kentucky is. His only downfall is that he is a Cats fan. LOL
John Belski is still the man
Chris Bailey and John Belski come on that’s like Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, Karl Malone and John Stockton, PB and Jelly, you cant have one without the other.
EF5 hasn’t depressed me lately. What’s up with him?
I’m here but not allowed to have my viewpoints expressed anymore.
That was a view point. π
CFSv2 says cookouts for February
The NCEP GEFS says different. It has cold weather through the next 16 day period. After that who knows, but the analogs say cold through Feb and into March.
The bad news is we are on the very low end of snow totals to date this year (hopefully that changes) but the blessing in disguise is that we have thus far escaped Chris’ bold big ice prediction. That is good news for everyone.
True