Good Wednesday and welcome to February. The second month of the year is off and running with a cold front draped across the state. This is leading to some vastly different weather from north to south. While this front is fairly weak, other systems showing up over the next week look much, much stronger.
Let’s start with the trend showing up today. Areas across the far north will see some rain and snow shower action, and I can’t rule out some very minor accumulations. Track the potential…
275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
Areas across the south will see much better weather with temps reaching the 50s.
Colder air is moving in for Thursday and Friday with the potential for a streak of light snow and flurries working in.
Another system works our way by Saturday night into Sunday. The models differ on the strength of this system. This should produce a mix and rain..
Here’s where the Canadian sees the chance for winter weather…
Once this passes through here, we will be watching a potentially volatile setup into early next week. The GFS is now bringing two potent storm systems into our region. Here’s the first one arriving on Tuesday…
That could result in some potent thunderstorms and high winds. The next system is being pushed by arctic air as it moves in by Wednesday…
Nothing like going from strong thunderstorms and bear 70, to snow and temps in the teens. All that is certainly on the table next week.
I will have updates later today. Make it s good one and take care.
Chris – it must be hard for you to give 2 daily updates when we are in such a patterns as this. Not much to write about.
What have the signals been this horrible winter so far?
I’m not losing hope until early March, as I keep recalling many non-existent winters that ended with a bang. But I keep thinking something needs to change in the signals for that to happen, otherwise it will be more of the same. Unfortunately, I do not know how to interpret that data.
MarkLex, I agree with you were in a same ole pattern that’s not gonna produce any significant snowfall in our world. But who knows February and March can produce big ones like in 93.
For snows lovers this is really is The Seinfeld Winter. A lot about nothing.
It might end in a bang, but it still can’t make up for a dud of a winter. Not even a promising “miss” this winter. Looking at some longer term automated forecasts , the temps are going to hang at or just below average this month for the most part. Average temps get tolerable by the middle of the month, by
I really hope next Thursday produces. On the same note, I would love to see some severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Unfortunately (as usual) Thursdays chances diminished once again on the 12Z GFS
Been reading the comments on this blog for a while now and it’s unfortunately such a well-groomed resource has so much negativity attached to it. Chris was right on in his winter forecast and of course snow fans and winter lovers (myself included) are going to pray for a miracle. Yet, we still talk with eggs and tomatoes in hand when things don’t go our way as if we’re entitled to epic winters all the time. There’s nothing wrong looking ahead to the future, but I submit there’s a way to do so without contaminating the web waves with complaining. Again, I include myself in this. Anywho, keep up the great work CB. Whatever happens in February/March, I just hope it’s exciting regardless of the outcome.
Well said, Cameron.
Of course eggs and tomatoes are being thrown- there is no snow for snowballs 😉
I love the snow and sure hope we get a late winter, back-loaded surprise. That said, we’ve been very fortunate the last couple of years and this just might not be our year. Proud of our claw-back Cats!
Hope on! It’s still winter.
Keep up the great work, Chris! This winter may have been a dud snow wise, but it’s not over yet. I must say I’ve enjoyed the milder temps, but we sure could use a really good and long cold snap.
We need a good DRY cold snap. If we can’t get any prolonged cold, the ticks and other wee-beasties will be intolerable this spring and summer….. And my yard needs to dry out.
You are absolutely right. This will be a bad year for gardens as well.
Heck, they were bad last year.
Best pepper garden ever last summer for me
For Andy
Ladies and Gentlemen we have moved from just a regular old fork from weeks ago, to a big ole pitch fork in winter LOL
This has been an incredible stretch of warmth for the middle of winter. Before the little cold snap Sunday night i believe it was 17 days in a row without dipping below freezing, at least here in Jackson nws area. Yesterday I noticed some autumn olive bushes busting out. And lots of yards have suddenly turned green here in southeast ky.
I don`t need Winter, it disappoints me. 😉
We will just have to wait and see what the ground hog says tomorrow ❄️⛄️…maybe he will see his shadow…lol
I have discovered 9 locations in our extended region from southeast Missouri to western parts of West Virginia that made their respective top ten warmest January’s. Here in Kentucky…Jackson, Bowling Green, Paducah, London, and Louisville.
Next week we have another very warm surge lurking in the air before the crash back to cold. I’ve been wondering if these frequent pushes of warm from the south signal an active severe weather season. Is there a correlation with how things are now to how they’ll be in the March-April severe weather season?
The CFSv2 initialization goes bonkers with the cold air for mid-March to the end of the month, that’s right, March Madness.
Oh goody more cold rain
… and you put ANY faith in long-range weather models? They rarely verify! Rodger in Dodger
Nope. Just sayin
Omg did you see the 18 z gfs next week showing heavy snow flurries. A deep dusting.
haha. That’s better than the light dusting Monday!
Lol! Ol school snow storm! Get your milk, eggs and bread! We could, potentially, possibly, might have the chance of seeing a 1/2″ of snow! That would certainly make up for the rest of this Winter, if we can get us a heavy flurry.
I read today that Great Lakes ice cover is only at 9%. That along with daffodils out and Robins back in January tells you all you need to know about this poor excuse of a Winter.
Long range has been pushing the cold for two months now. How many times this winter have we been three weeks away from cold and the have it pushed back another couple of weeks. The January cold spell lasted every bit of three days. I like snow, but I’m really enjoying these 50+ days too.