Good Thursday and Happy Groundhog Day. This is a big day for your furry forecasters across the country. Bluegrass Bubba retired a few years ago, but others carry on his fine legacy. Here’s hoping they all break out the shades and find us an early start to spring! đ
Our weather out there today is pretty calm with readings ranging from the low 30s north to near 45 in the far west and south.
Similar temps will be noted for Friday with the potential for a snowflake or two possible. That sets the stage for a cold night with upper teens showing by for Saturday morning.
Clouds will thicken on Saturday as a weak system blows in here Saturday night into Super Bowl Sunday. This looks super weak, but can produce some light rains and snows across our region. Here’s the NAM Sunday Morning…
That system shows up weaker because the following storm system is coming in quicker and will pack much more of a punch.
Rain arrives on Monday and could include some late day rumbles of thunder. That happens as much milder air pushes in here.
The actual storm system then cranks up Tuesday into Wednesday and could deliver some pretty wild weather. Temps surge on Tuesday with the threat for thunderstorms and very gusty winds, then the numbers crash on Wednesday with the potential for wraparound snows.
The Canadian Model…
The European Model is actually pretty similar to what the Canadian is showing…
The model then follows that up with another system diving in here as the arctic air surges in…
Both models show honest to goodness arctic air behind those storms. The Canadian is just a tad cold…
As always, we will keep our eyes on the winding weather road…
I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
I love that you put gifs from Groundhog Day in this update. đ
Pretty sad when the NWS in Louisville post this, Sorry snow lovers, this is just not your year. Might
have to hope a certain furry rodent will see its shadow today for
any chance of accumulating snow later this month…
I read that too. It was kind of depressing.
Yeah, and I seen on the weather channel this morning that feb-apr temperatures will be well above average for entire eastern half of country…But we all know how these long range forecasts can get seered with up and down temps.and surprise storms!..Time will tell all..But as a snow lover myself..I’m hoping for at least one good snowstorm for us here in the south before true spring does set in..
The ol yawn meter has be screaming that for two months now haha
Groundhog saw his shadow. Six more weeks of winter as the saying goes. I think this only applies to those regions who have actually been in a winter pattern. Kentucky, weather has been in a fast west to east flow, with cool to cold but with no Arctic invasions. I now believe this week La Nina is going to continue well into spring and maybe well into next year. Not good news for snow lovers like me.
Most excellent post Chris! Too much fun. I’ll take the 6 weeks and a few shots at snow.
We’ll see long range showing 70 s for mid and late February.
I was supposed to take a break, but I couldn’t help myself…you are most diff. Wrong..the models will show long range cold, but reality is the 70’s
I’m with you guy’s don’t foresee any snow chance’s down the road with this pattern were in. Oh well always next year!!
Joe Bastardi is beating the cold and snowy February and March drum for the east (which he included KY in that area)…Oh wait, this actually this means nothing since he does that practically every year…
Ya I use to respect him and his forcast but he has become a joke.
This. Models for snow are Lucy football data for Fencetucky.
Only if CB calls a real deal, genuine, authentic, certified, verified, Rolocoaster inciting snow Threat Mode, will I even believe otherwise. Anything else is just spotting footballs and a big air kick.
Still winter, so not giving up hope. However, the dry/cold, moist/warm cycle has become monotonous.
I’m still betting on CB’s outlook holding and 30:1 odds against a snow Threat Mode.
Rationale being- the outlook has been correct so far, why deviate?
We must have read 2 different forecasts. The one I saw said early start to winter with most snow in December and January. Average totals, then February would be mild. December and January were very mild and in my neck of the woods we haven’t had 2 inches total. Not knocking, because this site is the best. Just an observation.
Agreed, here in Richmond, above avg temps, well below snow (maybe 1 inch).
I’m not putting down, but I’m saying forecast wasn’t correct. I am saying winter stunk this year.
We do appear to have gotten most of our snow in December and January- catch is there was barely any snow and none now. Everything is relative đ The point being there would not be much snow and no Threat Modes unless for ice.
“All of our snow” = 1/2 to 1 inch total fir my part of Richmond.
Yeah, the early forecast was off on snow for sure. My area was in the 18-24 range and we have had little. And that was all supposed to happen early.
Does look like February may be milder at this point and there was some colder shots in Dec-Jan so there is that. Still time but hopefully no ice storms.
Temperatures will be much colder this winter when compared to last winter, which wasnât very cold at all,â Bailey said. âI expect temperatures to be a degree or two colder than normal, with the coldest coming during the first half of winter. I expect much milder temperatures to arrive by February.â
Chris thinks Snow
âSnowfall should be normal to slightly above normal for most of Kentucky. Similar to temperatures, much of that should come during the first half of the winter (from December to January),â Bailey said. âThe second half of winter should feature much lower snow chances as I expect temperatures to become much milder later in the season.â
http://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Chris-Baileys-2016-17-Winter-Forecast-401952866.html
“Donât be surprised if we donât have a big event between the mid to latter parts of December.â
CB’s gut said a big event in December but the said don’t be surprised if we don’t! I guess that’s covering your bars! ; )
Thelma Lou has moved on from winter but she’s afraid this pattern is gonna lead to some severe weather outbreaks in about a month.
Bet on it Barney and make sure that bullet is safe in your pocket!
30:1 for snow Threat Mode 2:1 for some bad non snow events from now and spring.
I feel like this blog is Groundhog Day, the past 2 months now.
What is everyone’s snow totals for the winter so far, and where are you located?
2.9″ here in Eastwood, which is eastern suburbs of Louisville.
I don’t follow silly superstitions like rodents predicting weather.
Usually this time of year, in a year like this year, many of us are starting to look toward severe weather season. However, GENERALLY SPEAKING, the severe weather hasn’t really been there either the last few years….
Well since winter is so boring this year has anyone entertained the 12-z run of the GFS with the Tennessee Valley snowstorm haha at least it’s fun to watch on the models
I’m not giving up hope. The biggest snow I’ve ever seen in my
Lifetime was in March of 93. Still hoping!!!
I guess you wasn’t around when had the famous late1970’s winters. Brutal cold and lot of snow stick on the ground from January to April. No winters has compare to them years since then.
Go check out the 12 and 18 z..Brewing up a snowstorm next week..Yeah yeah I know!!
How do you look at the 12 and 18 z….I have no clue what I am looking at but I catch on pretty quick. thanks
Here’s a link . Just move the slider or click the arrows on top to advance in time.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017020218&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=156
Thanks Troy!
Should I hold my breath this time? I am thinking….probably not… (I would LOVE to see it though! One good snowfall of at least a foot, let it hang around for a week or so and I’ll be ready for spring.)
woot the 7+ day away dream is back