Good Monday, everyone. Spring it doing its thing much earlier than normal across Kentucky and surrounding states. Near record highs are possible today and again later this week, but this warmth may come with a price. The pattern is set to become a busy one with cold air intrusions running up against our budding spring.
Low clouds and some fog may be around early today, with afternoon sun taking over. Lots of highs will be near 70, with low 70s showing up for areas getting in on more sun. Records will be challenged.
Tuesday will find clouds increasing with a weak system crossing the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible…
Some leftover action will then take us into Wednesday morning and that will keep the numbers down just a bit. I don’t know how we will survive with highs ONLY in the 60s. š
70 degree temps or better will be possible Thursday into Friday ahead of a potent storm system. That will roll from the plains states into the Great Lakes, draggingĀ a cold front across our region. This could lead to a few booming thunderstorms.
The top 15Ā historical setupsĀ to the one being shown by the GFS show a severe weather signal for this region…
That’s still 4 days away, so we have a while to see if this signal grows or fades. Dewpoint temps aren’t very impressive with this setup, so that may hinder the threat.
Behind it, colder air blows in for the weekend with the potential for a snowflake or two.
One signal that continues to grow is the precipitation one over the next 2 weeks. I put together a map over the weekend showing how we may find ourselves in the battle zone between very cold and very warm weather. That leads to an active storm track across our region.
The medium range forecast models areĀ hinting at this. Check out one of the recent runs from the GFS for the next 2 weeks…
Obviously, that was an extreme run, but it gives us an idea ofĀ potential busy storm track across our part of the world.
I will throw you another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. I guess our winter will end on a wet, cool note, with possibilities of flooding from the way that GFS run looks. I know you said that was extreme but hasn’t our weather been extreme for the past couple of years so why should this one be any different? In any event, the illness has hit my workplace, and we are short handed. This is one reason I was hoping for some cold weather and snow. Guess we are likely out of luck on that one. But I can tell you this….we had thunder in February, so it will frost in May. Have a great Monday everyone.
I don’t think it will always frost in May. I am not trying to be cynical.
I agree with Jeff, it doesn’t always frost in May. But I have also seen those old sayings turn out to be correct more often than not many times. Things like how many days until the first frost after you hear a katydid. Or, how many snows you will have in a winter based on how many foggy mornings you see in August. Or, how high or low a hornet builds its nest determines the harshness of the coming winter. Etc. Etc. Etc. I used to love hearing my family talk about weather predictions like that, years before radar, weather models, and the such. As a life long citizen of KY for over fifty plus years, I have seen snowflakes (in Southern KY, where I was raised) as late as on Derby Day. My grandparents and parents always referred to these “late” cold spells as “winters” – Dogwood Winter, Blackberry Winter, Redbud Winter, etc. etc. If you notice, once these plants start blooming, there is almost always a period of cold weather. That being said, I think this current winter weather has been as strange as any I can ever remember and I don’t even know if those can be counted on this year. Case in point – I received a new winter coat for Christmas, that is still hanging, with the tags on it. Instead I sit here, wearing short sleeves and capris on a gorgeous February day and find myself trying to decide how many more additional spring clothes I should pull out of my seasonal storage! I feel for Chris, trying to keep up with all this day to day change! I hope that it is an enjoyable challenge instead of a headache for him during these times. I am still thankful that he is so dedicated to both this blog and to us, his readers regardless of what the weather is. š Coffee lady, hope you stay healthy! Everyone else, stay healthy, stay happy, and enjoy this warm weather while we have it!
Wait? Did we have any foggy mornings last August? LOL
Can anyone remember
Working on my MikJournal Monday report, I haven’t crunched the numbers yet, but it looks like another top ten warmest winter (Dec-Feb) for our region, perhaps beating out last year for Louisville, Bowling Green. Lexington might be included, but at the very least, most of us will be finishing near the top of the warmest February’s on record list. Right now, though, gotta take my little girl to her doctor’s appointment. Looks like flu-bug got her.
With this busy pattern usually comes some damage to homes. This is the busy part of the season for my company and we are here to help those who potentially suffer any roofing, siding or gutter damage during storms.
We’ve been looooooong time fans of Chris Bailey and the blog. It’s a website I depend on daily for long term forecasts out general outlook.
I sincerely think CB is THE BEST in the business and I hope everyone here realizes what a gem we have with Chris and his blog.
Thanks again and looking forward to many more years.
A 4th tornado now confirmed in the San Antonio area from last night’s storms
In March, when thunder roars through the hollows, snow will soon follow. I recall, back on March 10 th 1984 this actually happened and was not in the forecast. It snowed with thunder and lighting very rare and I was glad it happened. The following morning we had a foot of snow on the ground.
I’m guessing winter is over..at least winter as in accumulating snow chances or ice. Probably will get some cold days but I’m thinking for the most part spring has sprung and boy am I ready for it!
Dying to dig into some flower beds and garden, would almost go ahead and plant a few things but still fearing frost and cooler temps might damage them.
A very disappointing winter, but hoping our spring and summer makes up for it with beautiful weather!
We will not have daffodils for Easter this year because they are all blooming now. I have mixed emotions about the weather being so warm in February, I am very concerned about the trees, shrubs ,and flowers that are all trying to bud out at this point . And my hydrangeas are coming up so if it comes a late frost I will have to do some covering. Thank you Chris for your dedication to your blog. I also have been in a long time fan.
We will almost certainly get another frost, freeze, and hard freeze this season. The latest first on record of each for Lexington (with averages following)
Hard Freeze (Less than 28 Degrees): March 4, 1927 (AVG: April 3)
Freeze (Less Than 32 Degrees): March 17, 1929 (AVG: April 15)
Frost (Less Than 36 Degrees): April 3, 1924 (AVG: April 27)