Good evening, gang. Your friendly weatherdude has been on the road all day, meeting some great people across the Commonwealth. Everyone had one question they wanted to ask… How much snow are we going to get this weekend. My answer? We are a long way from knowing that, but the chance is there to get some snow.
This is way too early in the game to be talking about anything, ANYTHING other than the potential scenarios and trends.
Today’s trend on the models have been for a litter farther south track. The European Model shows a farther south and slightly weaker solution…
The snowfall map from the European Model shifts the focus on snow potential into the southern half of the state…
The brand spanking new GFS offers similar ideas…
The average snowfall from 21 different members of the GFS Ensembles…
This system can only trend so far south, but there is the potential for this to trend toward a flatter solution. Why? Because the system coming in behind it continues to show up stronger…
The Canadian Model has always been farthest south and weakest with the weekend system. The keeps showing that, but with a twist. It drops the second system in from the northwest and captures that weekend system, blowing it up into a monster up the east coast…
I will start to hone in on this potential with my overnight update. Enjoy the evening and take care.
Not that I am surprised this early in the game with waffling, I sure hate to hear the “flatter solution” option:/
I favor the shift towards the North. I have low confidence in the Canadian model.
The high to the north will most likely keep it south
Another miss. Oh well, see ya next winter, folks.
Still a wee bit early to throw in the towel.
Also, we still have the peak of spring severe wx season to track the next few weeks/months.
Our chances for snow diminish with each model run. That is the normal for this winter.
Kind of surprised CB is still showing much interest. In just a 1.5 days it went from slammer to skimmer. Not seeing how the progression of model trends suggest anything but a system not destined for much impact on most of Kentucky.
That’s why I have learned to never plan for a snowstorm five days out. Too many times several days out a storm looked like a sure hit only to move. I will wait until Friday to see. It can change several more times.
Well even if it misses or fizzles out, like I suspect it will. It did generate more interest in the blog than I have seen this Winter.
Interesting perspective…they are not sold on the Southern, or flat solution.
http://weathervue.wordpress.com/2017/03/08/evening-weather-ramblings/
Interesting discussion of the NE trough and possible energizing of the NW disturbance but not a good track for most of KY either…sigh
This is interesting!
Very good read. Lots of detail and explanation of the how, why, and what ifs of this potential storm. Very informative.
Yep, they suggest the main impact would be more north of Kentucky with just a glancing snow impact for most of us. Based on the flow, a more flat trend still would not smack Kentucky. A solution in between is what Kentucky would need, but seems the solutions are above or below us.
Well the GFS 00z decided to trend north again so the waffles are in full effect.
CMC pushed slightly further south, GFS very slightly north of previous run. Now we wait for the King Euro (which hasn’t been that great of late anyway). Realistically, we should know by Thursday afternoon.
I’m threw with winter bring on the 70’s, winter has had its chance now lets row with fishing and warm weather, snow this time of year last about a day at most!