Good Saturday, everyone. As we continue to climb out of this crazy cold pattern we’ve been in over the past few weeks, it’s time to focus on where we go from here. A much milder pattern final takes over in the coming days, but comes along with an active weather pattern. This is likely the sign of a very stormy spring in the making.
Let’s start with today and some chillier winds blowing in from the northwest. This is nothing like last week, but we will still need the jackets. Watch for isolated showers in the north and east.
Sunday looks fantastic with sunshine and normal temps across the entire region. Things will then turn even milder on Monday with 60s and the potential for some low 70s. Winds will become gusty as a weak front settles in from the north. That should create some scattered showers and thunderstorms…
After a seasonal brand of chill for the middle of the week, the setup across the country then starts to skew warmer than normal. Check out the warm shots showing up on the GFS Ensembles through the rest of March…
With the warmer air will come several storm systems rolling across the country. Each of these can create thunderstorms from the plains into our region. The first arrives in about a week from now…
Another one should follow closely behind a few days later…
The above setup matches up VERY well with my overall thinking for the spring, and matches up with the CFS seasonal model. The CFS rainfall map through April shows my severe weather concern…
That’s the look one would expect in this stormy setup. With the Gulf of Mexico water temps being crazy warm, that should aid in the severe weather threat for our region and into the south.
Temps from the same CFS run through April look warmer than normal…
A warm and very stormy spring is likely waiting in the wings.
Enjoy your day and take care.
I love the warmth, but hopefully no serious injuries or damage from storms.
We had a good soaking rain yesterday, which we needed to help green the plant life. Hopefully, we are through with winter and look forward to spring or summer, whatever season it decides to be. I don’t think we will have the severe thunderstorms that are predicted over the next three months. It’s all sensationalize weather predicting, No one really knows, but it is good to be prepared. Have a great Saturday.
I think we will have the severe thunderstorms that are predicted in the next 3 months. The pattern been screaming very active spring for thunderstorms (severe) for quite sometime.
We would look forward to you explaining why you feel “the westerly are going to shear any storm development. This is good, no severe weather”. What is your “westerly” and how does it limit severe wx?
https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=23138#comment-215663
Also, do you dispute that meteorologists generally (and rather accurately) predicted a very active 2011 tornado season as well as more recent springs being relatively benign?
The plant life was plenty green already. I have had already 12.75 inches of RAIN. already this year.
Thanks, Chris! The 2017 spring severe wx season indeed shows signs of being at least somewhat more elevated compared to recent years. This is both exciting and concerning.
Both Indiana and Ohio are about to observe their versions of Severe Weather Awareness Week (March 19-25). From NWS Indianapolis for Indiana activities:
http://www.weather.gov/ind/SvrWxWeek2017
Thanks Chris. We got more than a soaking yesterday, we had a monsoon at times. And last night we got some heavy rain and a lot of thunder. I am not wanting a drought but I don’t want such a wet spring it can’t be enjoyed either. Really could have slept during the storm last night , but I was watching a basketball game. Guess we will see about the weather as it comes. Have a great Saturday everyone.
Thanks Chris.. at this stage ANY warm is going to be SO welcome.. our free range poultry THINK they should be out and about ranging because of the longer days, but they are repeatedly being hit by exposure issues.. this has NEVER happened before.. the swinging temperatures with precipitous drops.. then heavy snow, sleet, ice and slush is simply horrible for us in central West Virginia! NOT looking forward to the possible 10 inches of precip. between now and April.. it’s like a quagmire already at our little farm.. I just posted videos of TWO rescues we had to do yesterday.. LINK below.
Remember a few days ago how we were looking at extended winter for the rest of the month with cold shot after cold shot? Things change quickly!
At any rate, good to get the narrative back to where we all knew it was going already.
I hardly think you or anyone else knew what would happen.
60 degrees actually feels warm here in Harlan today for a little outdoor work. It is not quite as toasty as those Jan/Feb days we had but feels much better than the recent wicked March cold weather we just endured!
I’m jealous been stuck in the pesky low level cloud deck pretty much all day with a strong breeze been stuck in the mid 40’s in my neck of the woods.
Im gonna go ahead and go on record as saying our first 90° day will be by mid May. I expect the upcoming spring, summer, fall, and, yes…winter to be a replay of last…
When there are westerly in the upper levels of the atmosphere across the middle of the country, this will cut off the moisture from the gulf. This also keeps the cold air from the north form moving south. This is why we had such a snow deprived winter. This is called a neutral winter pattern. Less sun spots also play into this factor. I do not see any changes in this overall pattern. Have a great Sunday.