Tracking A Line Of Strong To Severe Storms

Good Sunday, folks. A strong cold front is ready to push across the state later today, bringing additional strong to severe thunderstorms our way. This line of storms can cause some issues as it rolls to the east. I will help you track this and focus on a rather ugly setup leading into Kentucky Derby weekend.

Today’s line of storms will impact the west during the late afternoon hours, then roll eastward overnight. It’s likely to weaken some by the time it reaches the east…

Some of these storms may be strong or severe with damaging winds and large hail. In addition to the severe threat, another round of flooding rains will be possible. This is of great concern for those areas getting in on substantial flooding over the past few days. Your tracking toys…


Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

The weather to start Derby week looks much better than the way we will end it. A big upper level low will spin into the region and may hang around into Kentucky Derby Saturday…

Those can be nasty weather makers with cool temps, gusty winds and the potential for rounds of decent rains.

Some of the computer models are spitting out some very heavy rains across the region over the next 7 days…

Keep in mind, that includes what falls out there today. Timing and placement of heavy rains will vary greatly during thunderstorm season. Always keep that in mind.

I’m looking at the month of May and I’m thinking.. “cool”.

Have a great Sunday and take care.


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22 Responses to Tracking A Line Of Strong To Severe Storms

  1. BubbaG says:

    Looks like most of Kentucky missed all the expected rain and storms Friday/Saturday, since went more due north. The current track this morning seems similar on the radar. The flow reminds me of the winter systems where the snow misses and flowed the same way.

    Is the cold front going to force it more due east today, or will the main flow remain more north than east? Not being rhetorical here, but trying to figure out why the stuff missed the last two days, but will not today.

    Not a dig to on you CB, but the misses over the past two days actually surprised me, since did not expect it. The snow does not, but rain is more times than not pans out.

    • bgbecky says:

      My thoughts exactly!! And maybe with the wrong information on this weekends rain, then derby forecast will be wrong also!!!

    • LD says:

      We’ll be lucky to receive a 1/4″ of rain in the last 4 days and that’s if it grinds it out right now before it moves across. The level of miss is really surprising to me as well. I’ve looked at the radar in disbelief so many times of the last few days that it does feel like a winter miss.

      As a forecasting breakdown, I’d love to learn what specifically happened here as it wasn’t like CB was the only one with the same forecast. Though, based on past situations like this one, I won’t expect anything remotely close to that.

      Let’s hope the “cool” May pans out as I’d really like to put off AC till June like normal.

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. No no no! May is supposed to get wArmer , not cooler! Looks ugly to the west on the radar. Let’s hope no one gets pounded too badly by severe stuff. I know you’ll be keeping an eye on things Chris, along with Micah, Jim, and Adam. Stay safe and stay tuned to WKYT and kentuckyweathercenter everyone. HVe a great Sunday afternoon.

  3. TennMark says:

    As CB just tweeted, the SPC says there’s an 80% chance of a Tornado Watch for perhaps southcentral Kentucky (and central Tennessee). Not a very high tornado risk by the SPC so it might be a lower tier watch. But then again, east Texas didn’t have a sky high tornado risk yesterday yet sadly Canton TX was hard hit by a twister with four fatalities.

    Can’t ignore the flash flood risk as well, three people have lost their lives in Arkansas and Missouri.

    • TennMark says:

      Well, that was fast. Perhaps there’s more confidence that there won’t be much capping (unlike yesterday evening)? Anyway, a Tornado Watch now in effect for central Tennessee from the KY-TN line south.

      • TennMark says:

        This may be in the “knock on wood” department?? Or perhaps I jinxed us when I mentioned a few days ago that Nashville has had a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings but the power has stayed on and it wasn’t that bad.

        Well, there was a Severe T-Storm Warning a few hours ago that knocked down some large limbs in the area, even toppled trees elsewhere in town. Just got our power back!

    • Prelude says:

      Four dead over 50 injured in Canton Texas. Completely devastating. Friday night in Oldham County in a town called Goshen, NWS has reported a tornado hit there either EF0-EF1 not sure. Goshen is about 15 miles north of Downtown Louisville, luckily no injuries but there was no damage scary part was this tornadic storm had no warning for it. The storm showed decent rotation on radar why the NWS did not put a warning out on this storm is beyond me, there was plenty of evidence on radar to do so.

      • Prelude says:

        There was damage not no damage. Ugh need to learn to proof read

      • TennMark says:

        NWS Louisville has now said Oldham County was an EF1. Yea, I went back to the NWS Louisville Twitter feed and it showed a Severe T-Storm Warning, not a Tornado Warning. Was the rotation not up to criteria or something for a tornado warning? The tornado only traveled a mile, and perhaps by the time any debris ball was detected on radar, the tornado was already gone? Just playing devil’s advocate. Although a short, weak tornado, still a little unsettling no tornado warning was issued.

        • Prelude says:

          I’m believe uncharacteristicly the NWS just dropped the ball. There was clear signals on radar with the storm that a tornado warning should of been issued. NWS in Louisville is usually pretty spot on so it’s surprising to see.

      • BubbaG says:

        Shudder to think if a more powerful system hit, considering a lower energy one caused that much damage and loss of life.

        I’ll happily take our apparent rain and storm misses in comparison.

  4. Mike S says:

    One fatality in Lincoln County TN in Fayetteville, about 90 miles south-southeast of Nashville.
    High winds have downed several trees along a SW-NE storm path in central Kentucky…Mesonet sites near Glasgow and Campbellsville registered 54 and 56 mph respectively.
    Not much rain yet in flood-weary areas that received 2-6″ Friday night/Saturday morning. Let’s keep it that way.

  5. BubbaG says:

    Still nothing. Why would the forecasts stay firm when Friday and Saturday missed with a more northerly flow and the radar showed the same this morning, yet the forecasts stayed as they were? Kind of like people driving following GPS maps and it runs them into a river, instead of looking at what is going on. I do not recall this consistent of a miss over three days for rain. Confused.

    Maybe tonight, but Sunday had 90 minutes left. Something is not adding up, or I’m bad at math….. Perhaps.

    • BubbaG says:

      CB seems to be the only one noting east movement later in the evening, but some others…. stock Friday forecasts that are not updated?

  6. Jimmie says:

    Perhaps the models were confused about the month. This weekend’s goose egg was on par with some of the Jan/Feb winter storm misses in recent years.

    What was particularly amusing was Accuweather’s app telling me this evening that heavy rain and thunderstorm would start in 7 minutes. That was 3 hours ago and it still hasn’t rained a drop…

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