A Lot Of Ugly On The Way

Good Tuesday, everyone. My advice to you is to soak up the weather we have out there today… It may be the best we see for the next week or two. We have a serious case of nasty May weather on the way, just in time for Kentucky Derby Weekend.

Today is a nice one with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will also be very gusty between 30mph and 40mph.

Clouds increase quickly on Wednesday with the threat for late day showers and some thunder. Temps will spike ahead of the clouds, then tumble some during the afternoon.

That sets the stage for a huge, slow-moving storm system to impact our weekend into the start of Derby weekend…

The look on that system is one you see during the winter months, not the first week of May. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds and cold temps will be common. Highs on Friday may not get to 50 degrees in some areas.

There’s even the chance for snow in the high elevations of the Appalachian Mountains.

All of this comes from a HUGE upper level system that cuts off from the main flow and hangs around into much of next week. Watch this…

That’s pretty amazing to see and could also spell trouble for the start of our growing season. Clear skies will likely allow some frost from Sunday into early next week. Some of the models are even hinting at a rare May freeze by Monday and Tuesday mornings…

There is nothing nice about the pattern I’m seeing setting up for May.

Have a great day and take care.

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14 Responses to A Lot Of Ugly On The Way

  1. Chris Mercer says:

    This may be the coolest month relative to normal in about two years. Maybe the pattern is finally starting to shift from extreme warmth to something else.

  2. TennMark says:

    Hey, Chris. Stumbled across one of your 2013 posts about how cold and snow are rare but not unheard of for May:

    The bizarre May 1894 Kentucky snow came only a few years after the winter of 1889-90 which still ranks as one of the warmest winters on record for many areas. January 1890 (and especially March 1890) also had major tornado outbreaks in Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and other states.

    Nashville’s latest trace snow is well into May IIRC.

    Speaking of 2013…..the state of Arkansas didn’t have its first known measurable May snow until 2013, at least according to the Little Rock office of the NWS:

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Yeah–May snow is rare, but not something that never happens.

      There was sleet in Louisville and snow in other parts of the state on Derby Day 1989.

  3. TennMark says:

    Several sources (including Significant Tornadoes, by Thomas Grazulis) indicate April is the most active month for tornadoes in Kentucky, followed closely by March, then May.

    With April 2017 in the books, an interesting anomaly continues for Kentucky.

    On just the one April day of April 3 1974, there were approximately 11 (yes, nearly a dozen) F4 tornadoes (again, only counting F4s) in Kentucky alone. Plus two F5s in Kentucky that day (one being the infamous Brandenburg/Meade County funnel, the other at Boone County which later crossed into Ohio). Not to mentioned many more twisters from that outbreak that were ranked from F0 to F3. Again, all this was on one single day. A single day in April that is.

    But since 1974, the state of Kentucky has not had any tornadoes F4/EF4 or stronger during April. Kind of crazy to go from one absolutely off the charts April day in 1974 to no April F4/EF4 or stronger tornadoes in all the April months since 1974 (43 years). This is despite April, again, being on average the most active tornado month for Kentucky.

    True, Kentucky has had F4s/EF4s since 1974 but in months other than April (like March 2 2012 at Crittenden and November 15 2005 at Madisonville). There have been notable April F3s in Kentucky since 1974, including couple of F3s on April 16 1998 (same day as Bowling Green’s big hail storm).

    I don’t think any of us would mind this April F4/EF4 drought going on a bit longer.

    • Prelude says:

      TennMark, I will give you this hands down you are a Tornado guru a walking encyclopedia.

      • TennMark says:

        I’ve had no success convincing my wife to go on a tornado chase tour in the plains, though. 😛 😉

        Two stunning experiences influenced me. As a teen, a 1998 tornado near Cleveland TN caused one fatality, hitting not far from my family and I; we basically slept through it. Then there was the fear of not knowing if my parents were safe after April 27 2011, then later seeing incredible EF4 destruction about 8 miles from my parent’s home.

  4. Msd87 says:

    Sigh… Where was this pattern in January. Really hoping it stays above freezing next week.

  5. Lucy says:

    Brrr. Wasn’t expecting this cold snap.

  6. Heather says:

    Blackberry winter…happens every year folks.

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      Nothing to do with blackberries.

      • Coffeelady says:

        I’m staying out of this one, (but I agree with GeTher!)

        • Prelude says:

          Oh come on!?! How many possible tree and bush and berry winters can there possibly be out there? Weather folklore hogwash, the weather is going to do what it wants whenever it wants no tree,bush or blackberry on Gods green planet will dictate the weather. This includes groundhogs, woolly worm, bees, ants, squirrels, and the color of your car!

  7. Coffeelady says:

    Ha! Meant Heather.

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