Good Friday, folks. Our Memorial Day weekend is here, but severe thunderstorms are going to play a big role in your plans. Rounds of strong to severe storms will move in here and could cause some significant issues.
The greatest severe threat comes Saturday afternoon through early Sunday…
Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all possible during this time. The Storm Prediction Center has the entire region in the risk area for Saturday…
In addition to the risk of severe storms, flash flooding is also a real possibility. The bluegrass state has picked up a lot of rain over the past several weeks, including flooding rains in recent days. It’s not going to take much to cause additional flooding problems.
The storms will decrease Sunday night and Monday morning, with a decent day for Memorial Day. More storms return by the middle and end of next week as temps run on the cool side of normal.
What about today? Warm and humid air is moving in with temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. Once into this afternoon and evening, we will need to watch for some storms going up. Any storm that goes up this evening into tonight can be strong or severe.
I have you all set to track today’s action…
Make it a great day and take care.
Thanks Chris, Lots of weather information in your blog this morning. This springs weather pattern has been interesting, with all that has happened to the north and east of Kentucky and now along southeast part of the country. I will enjoy today’s weather and not worry about this weekend. Have a great day everyone.
Thanks, CB. Not a bad idea for all to check that weather alert radios and other early warning devices are in working order (and have multiple ways to get warnings). This is especially true since some severe wx could happen during the overnight hours.
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With the upcoming weekend threat, it may be especially notable that on tomorrow’s date (May 27) in history was a large severe weather outbreak in western parts of both Kentucky and Tennessee. In fact, Saturday happens to be the centennial of when locations like Chester County TN and especially Fulton County KY had devastating tornadoes…… May 27 1917.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May%E2%80%93June_1917_tornado_outbreak_sequence
This was actually a multi-day event across many states. But May 27 1917 was especially harsh for Kentucky and Tennessee as F4s (would be EF4s today) touched down in both states.
But in recorded history, May 27th is – to my knowledge – the latest into any spring that F4/EF4 tornadoes have occurred in both Tennessee and Kentucky. In other words, nothing stronger than F3/EF3 from nearly the end of May until November. Furthermore, Kentucky has recorded no twisters stronger than F2/EF2 from roughly mid-June until October. Indeed, both Kentucky and Tennessee have zero known tornado fatalities during any July in history. While nature can of course do big surprises that buck history, on average we are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel regarding the tornadic threat in our area. As the warmer months roll along, stronger twisters tend to occur more towards areas like the Great Lakes and northern Plains.
True, our area still needs to be wary of lightning strikes, derechos, flash flooding, extreme heat and other summer hazards including an occasional weaker twister (even an EF1 can destroy a mobile home).
Again, thanks CB.
Instead of your TennMark name on this site, I think TornMark is an apt name because your prowess on regional TORNado history is well noted here. Keep them coming.
I subscribe to the TornadoTalk podcast. Love listening to that. Recent episode 34 discusses the May 27 1997 Jarrell TX F5 tornado that literally ground up the town. Excellent interview footage places you right there despite no video. Also that tornado is an Outstanding Storms of the Month feature for NCDC’s Storm Data publication.
Looks like we are on the outer fringe of the main threats- based on the maps CB shows right now, anyway. West of us looks to get smacked pretty bad.
NO BuBBa
There is now an enhanced risk Sat and slight Sunday.
Great information and advice there TennMark. Have a safe weekend.
Looks more like a nice size outbreak for the entire region according to the upgrades in outlooks for Severe Weather from the SPC
Yes, it looks like some people will have rain this weekend… thanks guys for stating the obvious!
Ralph, the potential is there for just a little more than rain. A widespread damaging wind event may come to fruition late Saturday night/ very early hours on Sunday depending on where your at.
A Mesoscale Convective Complex/System (MCC/MCS) is expected to develop tomorrow and become a full blown damaging wind event for parts of the region, with possible brief spinups. However, this is a model forecast. These models have had difficulty forecasting these things accurately in the past. A lot of ingredients have to come together for it to happen. According to SPC, the ingredients will be there, but will all of the ingredients come together to make this MCS happen? Potential is there, but let’s give it a few more runs.
Turned out to be a really nice day in Nicholasville. Just a few drizzles and thunder off in the distance a few times.