Good Thursday to one and all. Our run of September rolls on for a few more days, but summertime is ready to surge in here for the weekend. This will bring the hottest air of the young season into our part of the world. With the heat will come an gradual increase in storms for next week.
Before we get to all that, let’s focus on what’s out there today. Highs will range from the mid and upper 70s west to the upper 60s and low 70s east. Clouds will continue to spin up and we are likely to see a few showers going up. The best chance will be across the east…
Friday looks much, much better with low 80s west and upper 70s east. Skies will stay mostly dry, but a storm may threaten far northern Kentucky by evening.
This sets the stage for a much warmer weekend as a big ridge of high pressure builds in across the southeast…
Highs by Sunday and Monday can hit 90 degrees, especially in the west. One thing to keep in mind, we have a very wet ground with green, lush vegetation. That’s something the models never take into consideration. Your weather apps and walking weather apps won’t either.
Humidity levels will soar, leading to an increased chance for storms going up. That really ramps up by the middle of next week as a trough rolls eastward into the Mississippi Valley…
That knocks the temps back down into the normal range, but the muggy air will continue. The setup after that is an interesting one, with a pipeline of moisture developing from the Gulf into the region…
The pattern I foresee taking shape is one that can produce flash flood producing thunderstorms. I’m not talking about every day type stuff, but I can see us getting into some trouble this summer.
Have a great day and take care.
Thanks Chris, Quite, a major change you are forecasting, beginning this weekend and into next week. I just hope we are not going to get more of those heavy rains and flooding. With this current weather pattern nothing at this point will surprise me, and reading your weather blog, I feel you are thinking the same. I’am starting to see some changes in the south Pacific, but it’s too early to forecast. I do expect that the sub tropical jet stream will come into play latter this Fall, along with the polar jet stream, where these two streams hook up will determine our winter weather, Ice or snow or very cold and dry. Have a great day everyone.
Thanks, CB! Sure could do without the flash flooding, but as you mention the potential is there. It was only last summer that West Virginia had its devastating flood event. Johnson County KY was hard hit by flooding in 2015 (following their EF3 tornado in March 2012). Just a few weeks ago, flash flooding basically washed out the CSX rail line in Portland TN that runs between Nashville and Louisville. While I’m looking forward to the upcoming warmer temperatures, everybody stay safe this summer!
http://www.ustornadoes.com/2017/06/07/look-tornadoes-rating-maps/
I’m sure TennMark you have read this but if not here ya go
I had the link, thanks! Interesting to see individual tracks like from April 27 2011 (including the Cleveland TN EF4 that missed my parents by about eight miles), March 2 2012, and other outbreaks since 1950.
Even though tracking paths before 1950 may be more challenging, “Significant Tornadoes” by Tom Grazulis goes back the 1880s and even earlier.
After just getting back from Florida, I am very interested in seeing the most recent drought report coming out today. There was an extreme drought for areas where I was located, but when I left, you would have never guessed there was ever a drought to begin with.
I have family that live in Port Orange Fl they told me that it has rain there on a constant level for about a week.
The trough, that’s currently over our area is pushing south and southeast and interacting with the hot and humid air over south Florida, bringing with it much needed rain for the drought stricken areas. This trough is forecast to move out by the weekend and be replace by the Bermuda High. This upper level system may lock in for a while, and bring to our area the usual hot, humid, and mostly dry conditions. Thirty five years ago, June eight 1982 at noon, I went through one of the worse thunderstorms I have ever experience. Seventy five to eighty mph straight line winds that was sustained for at lease thirty minutes. When it was over the damage was unreal. Some people didn’t get their electricity back on line for a month. The damage was compared to a category four hurricane. Have a great afternoon everyone.
That is interesting beause 75-80 mph winds are only at Category 1 Hurricane strength
Damage of a Cat 4 but yet winds of 75-80 mph? Hmmmmm…… So your saying that winds of 75-80 mph can cause damage equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane?
Thanks, I thought that too, but it was something the national weather service reported. The damage was mostly fallen trees, barns destroyed, utility poles down, and some houses gone, and some with roofs completely rip off. Good news is that no one was killed, but there was injuries. Why, they recorded this damage, compared to a category four, hurricane was made in haste I think too. I would think that a category four hurricane would take everything in site.