A Tropical Week Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Steamy temps are rolling into the bluegrass state and this will lead to rounds of showers and thunderstorms firing up. Overall, the pattern ahead will have a pretty good tropical feel to it, and that could wind up getting us in a bit of trouble.

Kentucky has a summer flash flood season and we are entering that right now. I’ve been talking about how the storms ahead will have the potential to cause some issues on that front. Why do I say that? I’m watching a potent system digging into the Midwest with a deep tropical surge of moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico.

That shows up well on this illustration…

That setup will lead to rounds of showers and storms kicking in throughout the week, with the action increasing as the plains trough digs in.

Scattered storms will be possible on Monday, with a greater threat from Tuesday through the rest of the week and into next weekend. With the deep tropical moisture in place, thunderstorms will have ample juice to help put down a lot of rain. This has been covered extensively in recent days. No, it’s not constant rain and it may not rain every day where you live. But, when storms do go up, they’re gonna put it down.

Later this weekend into early next week, the pattern is likely to throw a deeper trough into the eastern part of the country. This may occur as a tropical system tries to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s the European..

The Canadian…

Regardless of any potential Gulf system, the models are pretty gung ho on a deep trough developing across the eastern half of the country. The GFS Ensembles show this well…

Again, there’s no sign of any one pattern locking in for the long haul. That back and forth setup likely spells ample amounts of summer rain, and potentially some issues because of it.

Have a great Saturday and take care.


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8 Responses to A Tropical Week Ahead

  1. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, On the last model, in your blog this morning, it seems that the two ridges, the one off the Pacific, and the one in the North Atlantic is holding the upper level trough in place for a couple of days, before the ridge in the east weakens and allows the Gulf of Mexico moisture to move north into our area, bringing showers and maybe thunderstorms. I did not know that Kentucky had a summer flash flood season, interesting. Have a great Sunday everyone.

    • Prelude says:

      Schroeder, your comments yesterday on the cool down this up coming weekend so how cool is going to get?

  2. Prelude says:

    Diurnal temperature swings will be relatively small in the long term
    with plenty of moisture in the air. It`ll be more typical of mid to
    late July – highs in the mid/upper 80s to around 90 and morning lows
    a few degrees either side of 70. The humidity will be most
    noticeable Tuesday onward as dewpoints creep up into the upper 60s
    to low 70s. The afternoon heat indices may reach the low/mid 90s,

    • Prelude says:

      That’s from the NWS out of Louisville. Definitely does not look like that so called made up Schroeder cool down for next weekend.

  3. Schroeder says:

    Thanks, Perlude, with the trough coming in from that direction, this coming weekend could, ( don’t hold me to it ) have temperatures in the upper 70’s and low to mid. 80’s near the Ohio River. Before the weekend, however the temperatures will be very warm, 80’s to low 90’s, with many cloudy afternoons and as always with this pattern, some areas will have afternoon showers and thundershowers and as Chris said in his blog this morning, some of though’s storms could produce flash flooding. Have a great Sunday.

    • Prelude says:

      Your not going to get temps around 90 to lower 90’s with cloudy afternoon’s. Isolated to scatter thunderstorms that develop will keep temperatures in the mid 80’s depending on how early storms fire. Other than that the heat and humidity for the next several days is here. As far as the flash flooding goes that’s a possibility storms fire up nothing driving the storms in the atmosphere to move so many storms will be very slow moving rain producers nothing to uncommon. Typical pulse driven slow moving pop up summertime thunderstorms.

  4. Schroeder says:

    Great post, Prelude, I totally agree. Have a great evening.

  5. Shawon says:

    So I haven’t seen this announced anywhere, but it looks like some changes are happening at WKYT in terms of weather forecasting? A new person, Chris Johnson, is working weekend evenings/nights and now Micah Harris (my favorite, to be honest) won’t be on-camera anymore? Will Jim (who I like) be moving to to weekday mornings? I live out of the Lexington market but will be in-market Wednesday to see what has changed, if anything, for myself. Gotta have my Chris Bailey fix, after all. 🙂

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