Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Tracker

Good Sunday and Happy Father’s Day. It’s supposed to be a big day for the dads, but mother nature looks to steal the show out there today. Severe thunderstorms and flooding rains are possible from this afternoon through Monday morning.

After this stormy pattern, things get interesting later next week. I will get to that in after a breakdown of today’s setup:

  • Storms today can pack a decent severe weather punch with damaging winds and large hail
  • The prime time for severe weather is from late afternoon through the evening hours
  • Torrential rains will accompany the storms through early Monday. This may setup up a flash flood situation across parts of central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Some areas may see local 3″+ amounts in a short amount of time.

Here are the tracking toys for the day…


Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

Temps will be much better as this system moves away later Monday. Tuesday looks like a fantastic weather day!

The threat for a few storms will move back into the picture by the middle and end of the week as toasty temps surge back in.

What happens in the Gulf? We’ve talked about this being a spot to watch for over the past few weeks and it looks like that thought process was right. The Tropical Prediction Center expects development there in the coming days…

As expected, the models vary on where this goes after it develops. But, the models are now coming around to similar solutions to what the Canadian has been showing for the past week or so.

The new Canadian develops this into a potent Gulf storm, then brings what’s left of it into our region. Watch the deep trough that digs in behind this…

If that solution verifies, it would mean quite a bit of rain for us. Check out the cold air coming in behind this…

Remember the all the cold in Canada I was showing you a few days ago? Well… there it comes.

The GFS is similar to what the Canadian is cooking, but a little farther east with the tropical system…

it also shows a monster trough digging into the region.

The European Model continues to bring some of that moisture our way by next weekend. That’s when it meets up with another deep trough digging in…

If you’re a weather buff, that map has to excite you. Why? Well, we have a tropical system in the Gulf with the 540 thickness line into northern Minnesota. I honestly cannot think of another time in summer when I have seen a model forecast the 540 line that far south. I’m not saying it hasn’t happened, I just don’t recall seeing such a thing. That’s a lot of cold air coming south our of Canada!

I will update things as needed later today. Happy Father’s Day and take care.


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13 Responses to Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Tracker

  1. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, GREAT weather blog this morning, very detailed, which I like in any weather discussion. I have nothing to add, I feel like you have really spent a lot of time and work preparing this blog for all the want a be meteorologist out there. Have a great Sunday and Father’s day everyone.

  2. Mike S says:

    Analogs showing only isolated severe weather for our region, mainly east; SPC only spitting out 15% wind damage threat. With such a contrast between very warm and humid with cooler and less humid, there should be more fireworks than this. But, SPC sounds concerned about morning convection hampering afternoon development.

    • feederband says:

      Morning convection hampering afternoon storm possibilities. Same old song and dance for my piece of LouMetro.

  3. LD says:

    This story out of Portugal is just terrible. Apparently, the fire spread at about 120 km/h due to a dry thunderstorm rolling into the area.
    The people, mostly trapped on the highway in their cars trying to escape their already burning town, just didn’t have a chance in this type of scenario. A fire on this scale and resulting in this many deaths is beyond anything known in Portugal’s history (based on some articles I ran through translation).

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-portugal-fire-idUSKBN199005

    https://www.weather.gov/abq/clifeature2010drythunderstorms

  4. Mike S says:

    Earlier in western Ky, near Benton, reports of trees uprooted and numerous limbs down…Mesonet read 56 mph. Still awaiting storms to refire around here in Louisville. I could still use some rain, but that 0.50″ the other day did help. I now have 1.25″ for the month.

  5. Justin says:

    Why does it seem that all week when the storms get close to Northern Pulaski they just dissipate? Happened just about all week last week as well

  6. MichaelT says:

    How do we get in on some of this rain in East Jessamine. Maybe a tenth of an inch in my rain gauge. :/

  7. Chris Mercer says:

    Looks like the Scott/Fayette County line and areas near it were hit hard. Not much rain or wind in the Landsdowne area of Lexington.

  8. Andy Rose says:

    So far nothing has fallen at my house other then the temps. The radar shows everything died out way before it got here so much for a flash flood watch

  9. Mike S says:

    In Marshall county in far western Ky, NWS survey viewed damage by microburst and estimated wind speed of 85 mph. Wind damage in Frankfort, Lexington along with 2″+ amounts since midnight in some areas.

  10. SHAAK says:

    So I have an event planned for next Saturday. Is it going to rain?

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