Good Tuesday, everyone. We have better weather blowing in today, but all weather eyes are on the end of the week and weekend. That’s when we could be facing a significant heavy rain event unfolding across our part of the world.
This potential comes from a tropical system from the Gulf getting hooked up with a slow moving front across the Ohio Valley.
Before all that gets in here, we have a nice day today. Enjoy it because temps will take off again for Wednesday and Thursday. There is a chance for a few storms to go up during this time.
It’s late Thursday into Friday that we have to be on guard for the gulf system potentially impacting our region.
What’s the latest on this system? Here ya go…
The computer models are all in agreement on bringing the remnants into our region, interacting with a cold front dropping in from the northwest. That’s a combination, if it happens, that should be sounding alarm bells to forecasters from the lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley.
Here’s the GFS…
The Canadian…
The Canadian rainfall totals are absolutely off the charts…
Unfortunately, the European Model isn’t too dissimilar…
The 18z GFS also had similar numbers…
The 0z run backed off somewhat, but still had some big numbers…
Nothing good comes of cold fronts meeting up with the leftovers of a tropical system. Nothing! We really need to monitor this very closely in the coming days. Hopefully we can get the front and the tropical system to miss the connection.
The troughs digging in behind this system are pretty incredible for this time of year. The 540 thickness line into Wisconsin at the end of June???
I’ve been studying weather since I was old enough to read and I cannot remember seeing a forecast map with the 540 thickness line that far south in the summertime.
This may give us an extended run of highs in the 70s. Wow.
Make it a great day and take care.
What will be, will be. Nothing else can be said.
Thanks Chris, The tropical system currently in the Gulf of Mexico is still in the developing stages, it may strengthen, as the wind shear is not there, and with a low pressure in the northwestern gulf, I would expect further development in the next 48 hours. It’s a good bet it will become tropical storm Arlene, before making landfall latter this week. Where it will make landfall is anyone’s guess. The colder air forecast to come into the US from Canada is most likely due to the weakening of the westerlies in Canada, caused by the NAO entering the negative phase. The above comment is my opinion, in which I’am entitled. Have a great day everyone.
Just a note….we are up to the C name (Cindy) if the system in the Gulf of Mexico gets named
Thanks Chris. I wish I had a store that sold rain boots and waders! After this upcoming forecast, I could likely retire! 😉 Today looks like its going to be a perfect day. Tomorrow doesn’t look bad either. The first day of Summer should be warm with some steaminess. My only downfall to that is that after tomorrow, the days start getting shorter 🙁
Ah well, what happens will happen, and at least we got Monday out of the way. Have a great day everyone.
Kind of makes me sick to my stomach to see those totals over southeast Ky. Depending on how spread out it is we would be washed off the map.
I wouldn’t worry about it at this point Matt. This is entirely speculation coming from computer guidance which simply can’t be trusted this far out…
Roger, thanks for clearing that up. I didn’t realize that the name Arlene has already been used this year. I should have caught that when I saw tropical storm Bret forming off the northeast coast of South America. Another storm we will have to watch.
It’s now tropical storm Cindy in the gulf moving north northwest.
can we get a update before the to wait at 4??? I crawled out under the redneck bunker rock you know its serious times!!!!
Be prepared to see all the trash people keep laying around there houses floating down the Ohio River. It happens every time we have flooding rains. I think some of them pitch it in the creeks when they rise.