Good Sunday to one and all. Our weekend is wrapping up with an increase in clouds and the chance for a shower or storm to pop. This will lead us into a pattern that turns stormy into the last few days of August. From there, it’s all eyes on Harvey to see how much, if any, rain it can bring our way.

In the overall view of the setup, this is a very energetic pattern for this time of year. Some deep troughs will continue to show up as we head into September and I’m wondering if an early season frost is in the works. Hmmm

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with a shower or storm trying to develop…

An upper level low drops in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to showers and storms increasing across the region…

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms that work through here. You can also see our storm system developing off the east coast. That may get a name, but is likely to head out to see. One thing to watch for is the potential for this upper low to pull some moisture from that storm and wrap it back in here. If that happens, it would lead to a greater heavy rain threat.

Harvey continues to dump historic amounts of rain across Texas. This storm could loop back toward the Gulf over the next few days and may strengthen again if it gets over the water…

cone graphic

What happens to Harvey in the coming days? The operational models are all over the place, but the Canadian and NAM both bring this over the Gulf and into Louisiana in a few days…

If that’s the case, a trough digging into the region by Thursday and Friday could pick up, at least, some of that moisture and bring it in here.

If Harvey continues to hang around Texas through much of next week, another trough working in here by Sunday and Labor Day may pick up some of what’s left…

That’s a potent cool shot showing up behind that…

The models are also honing in on another deep system a few days after that…

That looks like something from November instead of the first week of September. Geez.

The big cool shots have strong support from the Ensembles…

Have a great day and take care.