Good Monday, everyone. Our pattern has been cool and quiet of late, but the quiet part is about to change in hurry. Showers and storms are increasing over the next few days, with Harvey likely to have a significant impact on our weather before the week is over.

Let’s begin with the showers and storms out there today. These are firing up ahead of a potent upper level system diving in here from the northwest. It’s not all day rain, nor will everyone see the intense action today. Those who do will get in on some very heavy rains…

That’s a setup that takes us into Tuesday, with local areas of 2″+ rainfall likely showing up. This could be enough to cause high water issues in spots.

Harvey continues to drop historic rains across southeastern Texas. The storm will likely move back over water and strengthen, making a second landfall just in northeaster Texas. Here’s the latest from the NHC…

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Harvey will then lift northward into the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, throwing the first rains toward Kentucky around Thursday. Here’ is my initial thinking on where the leftovers of Harvey go…

Adjustments, some large, may be needed for that map as Harvey’s path comes into better focus. Also, that’s a 4 day timespan, but I don’t expect wall to wall rain for 4 days IF Harvey comes our way. But, we will need to be on guard for a high water threat.

The GFS looks lost in the woods, but the Canadian continues with good run to run continuity…

Regardless of Harvey, a HUGE blast of cool comes in behind that…

While all this is going on, we have Irma firing up along the southeastern coast…

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I will try to update again today, so be sure to check back.

Make it a great Monday and take care.