Watching Powerful Hurricane Irma

Good Saturday, everyone. Hurricane Irma continues to be the center of the weather world and for good reason. This storm is slowly working toward Florida and will be causing destruction from south to north. By early next week, Irma will throw rain and wind into Kentucky.

The storm is likely losing some early day steam along the shoreline of Cuba. As it starts to turn north, it goes over the super warm waters of the Straits of Florida, strengthening along the way. Here’s a look at where the storm is now…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center continues to slowly ease this thing toward the Gulf side of the state. This is a devastating path for areas like Naples, Fort Meyers and possibly Tampa. But, the storm is so huge, the entire peninsula of Florida may experience hurricane force winds…

cone graphic

This run of the NAM shows how devastating the hit will be, and how the first rain bands arrive in Kentucky late Monday…

That shows some pretty heavy rains in Kentucky Monday night. Here are the totals by Tuesday morning…

The GFS run has a similar track and shows the lingering rains from a decaying Irma in our region…

Here’s the rainfall map from that run…

I’ll get you another update on late today. Make it a good one and take care.

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38 Responses to Watching Powerful Hurricane Irma

  1. MarkLex says:

    That satellite looks like something pushed the storm into the shore of cuba, then it kinda bounced off….weird.

  2. B H says:

    Still waiting on that right hand turn to the north. Should not be to long before it does.

    • BubbaG says:

      The more west, the more TWC seems to spin (which is odd). They are becoming a self parody propelled by their own pretentiousness.

  3. Schroeder., says:

    Thanks Chris, Still too early, even with all models, GFS, NAM, and the European model and the Canadian model, are close to agreement on the path of Hurricane Irma, as it makes that northwest turn, and then to the north. I’am using Goes East satellite to track Irma, but I won’t know where landfall will be, till late tonight or early Sunday morning. Here’s the best information on Irma I can find:

    • Prelude says:

      Schroeder there you go again, “I won’t know where landfall will be, till late tonight or early Sunday morning.”You are going to find out where Irma’s landfall will be the same time everyone else does. Good Day.

  4. BubbaG says:

    Shifted even more west and down to 130 mph. If weakens more, perhaps not as big a build up over the warm water and stays low cat 4 or even a cat 3. Also looks like less of KY in the residuals from it as a result. Hopefully a weaker event than advertised. Wishful thinking, but still better than wishing a big event.

    • Terry says:

      Definitely moving more west than WNW has changed the track…my fear is that it does not make a landfall on the west side of FL bit stays in the water all the way until the panhandle and has about 500 plus miles of open water to restrengthen. Time will tell soon.

  5. Troy says:

    Is Jose, which is now a cat 5 and bringing up the rear behind, responsible for Irma’s western shift?

    • BubbaG says:

      More to do with the models being wrong. “Almost” seems like the national mets and media are trying to will a bigger hit. TWC coverage goes beyond pretentious and border-line comical- in light of a serious storm.

      I’ll take one CB over ten national mets and TWC.

  6. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Whatever happens this thing is thing of beauty to watch on radar but so scary at the same time as we all know what it is capable of, and have seen pictures of the damage it has already caused. A strong cat 4 is still dangerous. We rode out a minimal 80 mph one down there several years ago and it was bad enough. I’d personally like to see it take a sharp right turn and go out to sea, taking Jose with it. Since that isn’t likely, let’s hope it speeds up and doesn’t have time to strengthen much before it makes landfall in Florida, wherever that may be. Have a great Saturday everyone and GO CATS!

  7. TennMark says:

    While most of our attention is understandably on Irma’s threat to Florida, let’s not forget that the survivors of Harvey and those in the Caribbean who have already lived through Irma still need to be in our thoughts and prayers and help. The coffers for groups like the Red Cross are going to be strained for some time.

    – – – – – – – –

    As we know, Harvey was off the charts in many ways such as dumping about 52 inches rain over several days. This is now a record for a tropical entity here in the US.

    But the 24 hour rainfall record remain intact and that distinction belongs to 1979’s Tropical Storm Claudette which dropped about 42 inches in one day in Alvin, TX. A close second is Yankeetown FL which received about 39 inches in a day from Hurricane Easy in 1950. But Harvey’s total rainfall still exceeds both Claudette and Easy.

  8. Mike S says:

    Houston’s wettest month ever (@ the official location IAH) had happened in June 2001 thanks mostly to TS Allison…19.21″.
    Harvey unleashed that in less than 48 hours, and for the month and all-time for that matter, more than doubled the previous record with 39.11″.
    They only need just under 2″ to set the wettest year ever record.

  9. Schroeder., says:

    Prelude: Chris, does not want a person on his comment blog, that causes distractions. He mention this the other day after I reported this to him in a personal e-mail. Please stop this now, or I will have to contact him again. We have a very serious weather event, so keep your focus on Hurricane Irma. My comment are not your concern.

    • Troy says:

      While I agree that your comments are not our concern (even though most here agree with Prelude), this comment only adds fuel to the fire and you know that… Some of your comments are interesting or at least thought provoking, while others are seemingly self indulgent, ridiculous, and or intentionally contradictory to the info Chris puts forth as if you feel your opinion overrides all others. At the end of the day, most here are “arm chair mets” with except to the author of the blog…Chris Bailey. Point being, continue to contribute but tone it down and other will stop complaining.

    • Prelude says:

      Schroeder, I can not reiterate this enough I don’t have issues with your posts. However your I’sand me’s when referring to yourself in your posts come across very arrogant.

    • Andy Rose says:


  10. SHAAK says:

    Chris, we want winter weather predictions!

  11. Schroeder., says:

    I refuse to write simple minded comments.

  12. Lucy says:

    Respect the blog owner, and respect one another. Jabs are jabs whether directly, or indirectly. Judge your own posts, not others. If CB doesn’t like certain posts, he will handle it. Meanwhile, let’s pray for those in Irma’s path.

  13. Schroeder., says:

    I just read my first post again and Prelude, Troy you are correct in saying, I do sound arrogant. I apologize for this. I’am very worried about my sister and brother in law who live in Venice, Florida. I will be glad when this storm has past. Have a good evening guys.

  14. BubbaG says:

    Looks like it is still heading more west than the forecast and hugging Cuba more than “expected”. This is wearing it down some, so maybe a low 3 or high 2 when gets over the warm water. Maybe a 3 instead of a four or the 5 expected? Seems more possible as the thing keeps hugging Cuba and not making the big north turn advertised into Florida.

    Unlike the national media and TWC, I am trying will it weaker 🙂

    • corey says:

      Unfortunately, it looks like the eye is moving over water now

    • Prelude says:

      Your underestimating how very warm the ocean is, once hurricane Irma ( whenever that might be) leaves Cuba. Water temperatures upper 80’s touching 90 no reason at all why Irma shouldn’t rapidly intensify. Pressure has been starting to drop once again that’s a text book sign that Irma should be intensifying.

      • BubbaG says:

        It still looks like it is moving more due west than north. TWC is now adjusting coverage on more west and cat 3 saying, Well, it is still bad and they seem already in slow spin mode. I am sensing a defensive posture creeping in. Seems they are truly hoping for a big hit to save their Jerry Bruckheimer production level coverage. Hoping for a relative miss just to watch them squirm.

        Hoping for less impact IMO is not a bad thing. TWC and national media squirming would be a bonus. Already seems we are out of the rain impact from Irma.

    • feederband says:

      Spot on Bubba.
      TWC reporting low Cat 3 storm with monstrous Cat 5 coverage.

  15. BubbaG says:

    Seems like the “unexpected” time over Cuba though has taken some toll on Irma. Seems a 3 or low 4 wherever it hits. Surprised they are still locked in on the path, since the trend still seems to have more western bias.

    I ain’t a met though, nor recently stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.

  16. Mike S says:

    Eye may be wobbling but it looks like it might be making that turn finally.

    • BubbaG says:

      The key is how much energy it picks up and how due north. Whatever the case, storm surges are the main issue. Willing some level of a miss and weaker system 🙂

      None the less, TWC is pure unintended entertainment.

      • BubbaG says:

        Boo! Appears heading more due north now. If this holds, our only hope is less than Cat 4, but not much consolation. A few feet less storm surges is still severe flooding and structure damage. Power outages too for weeks. Go mo’ west!

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