Good afternoon, gang. The rain from Irma is moving into southeastern Kentucky and will overspread the state this evening and overnight. As what’s left of the center of circulation gets closer, winds will also become very gusty during this time.
Those winds may top 35mph at times in some areas later tonight…
The rain tonight and early Tuesday should be heavy at times and we will need to watch for pockets of high water issues developing. The models disagree on the exact placement of the heaviest rains during this time, but both show a general 1″-2″ for central Kentucky…
NAM
GFS
The threat for showers will continue through Wednesday and Thursday as the Irma remnant low, moves eastward across the state…
That’s a slow-moving look that can overachieve in terms of rainfall.
Temps continue to run much cooler than normal, as we are experiencing an amazingly cool September.
Here are your radars to track the tropical rains…
A
I will have an update on the rain potential on WKYT-TV starting at 4.
Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
At least no big wind with it!
Do you notice that when we see the cat 5 hurricanes out in the Atlantic, with the perfect symmetry and perfect eye wall…but by the time they get close to USA landfall, they almost never look as healthy as they did out in the Atlantic (I know there are some exceptions)… It seems like flooding is the bigger threat than wind…
About the dry air (Bubba) – Um, yea…that should have been part of the forecast…..especially since it was less than 24 hours into the future. Precip amounts, wind, hurricane direction were all forecast, but they didn’t factor dry air into the forecast?
But what’s freaky is the water leaving the Bahamas and Florida……I still have no clue why this hurricane was special to cause that ..
For those who haven’t seen any video of what he’s referencing…
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=4b7_1504987072
http://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/906719579099070465/photo/1
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-is-literally-sucking-the-water-away-from-shorelines/
Irma produced a humorous story as well about a certain radio personality if you want to search for it.
Yeah, loving this fall weather in fall as opposed to that crap last year and most years.
Almost like they were willing a bigger hit in their forecast and moved the goal posts during and afterwards. Like I said, give me one CB over ten national mets ANY day. Especially the pretentious now-casters of TWC.
Here’s an article similar to the ones LD posted:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/storm/once-in-a-lifetime-tidal-event-why-irma-drained-shorelines/ar-AArIsD6?li=BBnbcA1&ocid=HPCOMMDHP15
I wonder if there is somewhat higher odds of there being more shear and/or dry air around North America that hinders tropical systems a little more. Anyone more in the know is more than free to support or refute this. Anyway, Irma was negatively effected by both dry air and increased shear near Florida. Irma was also weakened by brushing along Cuba; larger islands in the Caribbean can often rob much of a storm’s power before they reach the US.
As you touched on, a small handful of hurricanes have been extremely strong upon hitting the US. Those that come to my mind are the 1935 Labor Day storm in the Florida Keys, Camille at P-a-s-s Christian MS in 1969, Andrew in 1992. Unlike Irma, Andrew experienced highly explosive strengthening just prior to devastating south Florida.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al12/al122017.discus.025.shtml?
What say you, Mr Bailey? This brrr September gonna lead to a COLD and snowy winter? Rodger in Dodger
September is amazingly cool so far. If the month ended today, this would be the third coolest September on record for Lexington. Of course, the average temp drops throughout the month, so even if we are close to or slightly above average, this should be one of the ten coolest September’s on record.
My guess is we snap back to the warm side, having an exceptionally warm late fall season. That makes me wonder about fall fire season.