Scattered Storms To Join The Mix

Good Sunday, folks. Warmer air continues to take control of our pattern, but a scattering of showers and storms will try to temper the temperatures in the coming days. As all this happens, the tropics continue to run in supercharged mode.

Highs today range from 80-85 in many areas. Skies stay partly sunny, with just a tiny shot at a stray shower or storm going up.

A better chance for scattered storms goes up as we head into late Monday and Tuesday. These scattered storms will then be with us each day through next weekend. The GFS shows this well on the rainfall forecast for the week ahead…

 

Hurricane Jose continues to pull northward off the east coast…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep the center offshore…

cone graphic

The storm is big enough to provide the northeastern states with wind and rain. The tropics remain active with 2 more storms developing in the Atlantic…

 

The front running storm is poised to work into the Caribbean this week and may threaten the southeastern US next weekend or early the following week. Here’s the 5 day track from the NHC…

cone graphic

Looking down the road through October, we are likely to see some pretty decent early season cold shots around here. The extended run of the European Model suggests flakes will fly in the Appalachian Mountains before October ends…

That would indicate a healthy early season snowpack becoming established in Canada, with a lot of snows out west in the Rockies. The snow pack in Canada backs up my thoughts on a possible earlier than normal start to winter around here.

Have a great Sunday and take care.


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11 Responses to Scattered Storms To Join The Mix

  1. Schroeder., says:

    I was hoping for the formation of a weak El nino for this fall and winter. In order to have snowstorms in Kentucky, there must be two active jets. The polar jet in the negative phase and the subtropical jet in positive phase. Forecasters, now are calling for the formation of a weak La nina for the up coming winter. Looking back, on weak La nina winters, Kentucky weather is usually mild and wet, but with the occasional Alberta Clipper could deposit a few inches of snow. Most of the heavy snow falls in the mountains in the Northwest, Great Lakes, and along the East Coast to the Northeast. I’am glad I made a snowman and took a picture, when we had that heavy snow in February 2016,as I may not see a real snowstorm in my life time again. I’am pretty confident in the above forecast. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

  2. Schroeder., says:

    Here’s the latest discussion on Hurricane Jose: http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2017/Jose.htm

  3. Schroeder., says:

    Here’s an old article on how La nina affects Kentucky’s winter weather: http://www2.ca.uky.edu/newsreleases/1999/Nov/lanina.htm

  4. Schroeder., says:

    Tropical activity continues to increase. I expect this will last past October. Here’s the latest on Tropical storm Maria: http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2017/Maria.htm

  5. Schroeder., says:

    Most recent La Nina years, and the kind of winter weather brought to the state of Kentucky: http://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/pdf/Recent_La_Nina_Winters.pdf

  6. Mike says:

    I don’t care if it is a La or and El, weak or strong – I would just love some snow. Last winter, in my part of Richmond, we had probably 3 to four inches total for the entire winter… and not all at one time. But the three winters prior to that we had at least 20 inches total… I guess it all balances out in the long run… (Long = ten years or so…)

  7. corey says:

    It’s a beautiful day here in northeastern ky! 81 degrees with scattered clouds and its always much better when its a day after a UK win! BBN

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