Summer Temps Start Fall

Good Saturday, everyone. The first full day of fall is starting out with summer temps putting in some overtime work. This brand of steamy air will then carry us through the first half of next week, before some big changes blow in here as fall fights back.

First off, let me say thanks for all the comments with the last post. Your reward will be a preliminary winter outlook coming in the first few weeks of October. The main winter forecast will then follow in November. 🙂

Highs today are deep into the 80s for most areas with a muggy feel to the atmosphere. I still can’t rule out isolated showers and storms going up…

The same forecast will carry us through Sunday and into early next week.

Hurricane Maria continues to slowly work northward just east of the Caribbean…

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The latest 5 day track keeps this well offshore, but we will need to watch for a westward bend in the track by the middle of the week…

cone graphic

A fall cold front arrives in Kentucky on Wednesday. Winds will be gusty with a broken band of showers and storms sweeping in from the northwest. Recent model runs are split on whether or now we get another disturbance to rounds the base of the trough, developing another storm system over the weekend.

Earlier runs of the GFS had this…

The most recent run had the colder air overwhelming the low…

Check out Hurricane Maria on both runs. Notice how the latest run has it threatening North Carolina.

Regardless, a true fall chill will be in the air. Here’s the GFS…

The European agrees…

Make it a good Saturday and take care.


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37 Responses to Summer Temps Start Fall

  1. DenaA says:

    There will be a rush to the tomato juice and saltines aisles! Stock up on the chili fixins and hot cocoa! Autumn is here!!!

  2. Schroeder says:

    Reflecting, on yesterdays comments: I was appalled that teachers wanted snow days off, with pay. My question is, who’s teaching our children ? This is why home schooling is the best option, my opinion. Glad for Chris, looking forward to his continuing forecast.

    • Schroeder says:

      With Hurricane Maria slowly heading into the cooler waters of the Atlantic, and maybe stalling out, this could delay the cool down expected late next week. Just like Jose did this past week. In my opinion, the month of October will display above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Take this with a grain of salt.

    • Prelude says:

      Schroeder, teachers have one of the hardest job with little pay for what they do. So if teachers want snow days and get paid for it they have more than earned it. It’s your very own comments that are appalling they are heartless thoughtless and completely insensitive. Go ahead and keep burning your bridges.

    • 3789N8436W says:

      Let me school you: teachers are employed for a nine and a quarter month school year and do indeed put in EVERY day and unpaid overtime…if there is snow that does not take that day away just pushes it further into the calendar year which you call summer. Teachers usually opt to have their salary dispersed over a 12-month pay schedule–so don’t get hyped–and therefore are paid every month. Teachers do not get one cent more than their contract stipulates. Further, to be appalled while ignorant of the facts–perhaps your best option is to keep your kids home, homeschool them yourself. Opinions are not worth much but facts and knowledge certainly are.

    • corey says:

      My sister is a hard working teacher….that comment is so idiotic…Schroeder I have kept my.mouth shut regarding your posts but you are seriously like an annoying mosquito who doesn’t go away…I vote yes 10 times for your butt to get the heck of this blog…your opinions are merely internet findings and your attitude is similar to a garbage dump…TRASH…Chris has worked hard to have this blog and you get on here thinking you know what’s best and what isn’t…check yourself.at the door bud because you are nothing but a irrelevant a hole

    • P says:

      Your educational level and social skills are terrible.

    • P says:

      your an idiot.

  3. Schroeder says:

    In my county of Kentucky, the yearly average snowfall is thirteen inches. In February 2015 and again in 2016 we had four snow events total. Unofficially, I measured ( rounding off all four snow events ) a total of eighty inches. I figured to get the average, which is thirteen inches, there would have to be a number of years without snow.

  4. Rainy day says:

    Schroeder, I hope you joking about teachers.

  5. Schroeder says:

    I don’t want to leave it this way, but it is time for me to quit posting my comments on Chris Bailey’s blog. I really enjoy meteorology, and will always follow and learn. Take care, and God Bless all. PEACE

  6. Virgil says:

    This is why we can’t have nice things.

  7. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Really enjoying this backloaded summer before fall temps hit.

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