Wednesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. I wanted to drop by for a  quick update on the possibility for another tropical system to bring rain to Kentucky.

Tropical Depression 16 will become Nate very soon as it lifts northward toward the Gulf of Mexico. This system has some speed with it and isn’t going to mess around in terms of forward speed. Here’s the latest track from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

That will likely shift west across the Gulf of Mexico, closer to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Nate will try to team up with a cold front across the Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next week. The GFS continues to show a potent setup, starting late Saturday and Going through Monday…

That would certainly bring very heavy rains into Kentucky, with the potential for high water issues to develop.

The Canadian Model is now VERY similar with a Louisiana landfall, then toward the bluegrass state…

A few thoughts:

  • The prime time for our heavy rain threat is late Saturday through Monday
  • How much rain depends on exactly where Nate makes landfall in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • A landfall west of Florida has a better chance of bringing heavy rain to Kentucky.
  • NOTHING is set in stone with this setup.
  • If Nate does bring rain to Kentucky, it would be the 4th tropical system of the season to do so.

In the near-term, showers and storms are hanging just to our north…

A couple of those may find their way into the bluegrass state later tonight or Thursday.

I’ll update things later this evening. Enjoy your day and take care.

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2 Responses to Wednesday Afternoon Thoughts

  1. BubbaG says:

    Folks, FWIW for winter outlooks, I am really concerned we could be in a prime area for ice events. Seems the colder air could be Ohio on north and the warmer (on average) our way on down south. That could mean ice storms instead of snow storms being the main threat for Kentucky.

    Just my two cents and a few lint bunnies.

    • LD says:

      Well, if it follows the other precipitation results (no rain…too much rain at once, no snow…too much snow at once), we’ll either be just fine with zero ice or we will be without power for weeks each time.

      On the other hand, we only need one large snow per winter to declare it an AMAZING season, so as long as we get that then everything is just fine and normal.

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