Update On The Weekend Heavy Rain Threat

Good afternoon, folks. We continue to focus on the weekend and the increasing threat for heavy rains to push across the region. This threat comes from Nate meeting up with a cold front right on top of our region.

Tropical Storm Nate is off the coast of Costa Rica and is part of a convoluted tropical mess in the Caribbean…

Nate will work toward the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, likely becoming a hurricane as it does so. The track from the National Hurricane Center has finally caught up to reality, focusing more toward Louisiana than Florida with landfall.

The track then brings Nate into Kentucky…

cone graphic

The spaghetti plots from the hurricane models continue to be clustered in the same general areas…

The GFS Ensembles are similar, but a smidge west…

The new GFS brings Nate right on top of Kentucky late Sunday into Monday…

Cold fronts meeting up with tropical systems really up the ante for heavy rainfall. The front itself will likely have tropical moisture to work with well before Nate arrives. We will need to watch for a band of very heavy rain to develop along this front Saturday night into early Sunday. Then, the rains from Nate arrive later Sunday into Monday.

Several inches of rain will be possible, giving us a flood threat across parts of the state. The European Model has an area of 5″+ on the latest run…

Which area of the state has the greatest risk? It’s too soon to tell, but I will hone in on that later tonight and Friday.

In the near-term, a few showers are impacting areas across the northern half of the state…

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.


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One Response to Update On The Weekend Heavy Rain Threat

  1. Cold Rain says:

    Wouldn’t surprise me to see a cat 2 from Nate the way hurricanes are behaving this year..

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