First Call For Heavy Rainfall

Good afternoon, everyone. Tropical Storm Nate continues to press toward the Gulf of Mexico, where it will become a hurricane and head toward Louisiana. From there, the remnants will track right toward Kentucky over the weekend, bringing heavy rainfall.

Nate is embedded within a pretty huge conglomerate of activity from the Gulf into the Caribbean…

As Nate moves into the gulf on Saturday, a cold front is stalling out across Kentucky. Deep tropical moisture will stream out ahead of Nate and meet up with the front on top of us. This will cause showers and storms to go up Saturday afternoon and evening, with additional storms into early Sunday.

I’m growing more concerned with the initial setup, because tropical moisture meeting a stalled front is a potent mix. Individual storms may produce flash flooding on their own in this setup.

What’s left of Nate will then roll into Kentucky late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a swath of heavy rainfall. This thing will zip through here pretty quickly and wrap up the rain by Monday afternoon.

My First Call For Rainfall doesn’t take into account mesoscale bands of heavy rain producing thunderstorms. This is more of a general, and likely conservative, first call…

Future updates may update the rain numbers and the overall placement.

A quick look at the models shows the GFS with a healthy swath of rain…

The Canadian Model has a very similar look, but is just a little west…

The NAM is too discombobulated with the remnants of Nate, but shows a ton of rain coming from the tropical moisture meeting up with the cold front…

Regardless of which model is closest to reality, several inches of rain will likely fall across the state, leading to the potential for flooding.

I leave you with the latest on Nate from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

That track is likely too far east once inland.

Make it a great day and take care.


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6 Responses to First Call For Heavy Rainfall

  1. Cameron Fry says:

    Seems like the rain axis should be further east with the track, correct? Isn’t the worst action east of the circulation usually?

    • corey says:

      Northwest

    • TennMark says:

      Not sure about the heaviest rains, but once over land any brief tornadoes are most common in a hurricane’s/tropical storm’s right forward rain bands due to increased friction with land thus more shear. The right side of a hurricane would also have the strongest hurricane winds, especially within the right side of the eyewall; the right side of the storm could make for a somewhat bigger storm surge along the coast.

  2. Mike S says:

    WPC QPF outright soggy through next week…4-6″ for central/eastern Ky while 2-4″ for areas surrounding them

  3. Terry says:

    Nate is showing signs of possible ‘bombing out’ with the core beginning to expand and pressure dropping quick at midnight. As crazy as this sounds, and if it were to reach major cat strength, tropical storm force wind gusts may reach KY.

  4. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Considering how this hurricane season has gone so far it definitely would not surprise me if Nate made landfall as a cat 2 or above.

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