Temps Take A Tumble Today

Good Wednesday, folks. We have a cold front pushing across the state today, bringing additional showers and storms, and a big temperature swing. This is the first of two fall cold fronts showing up in the next week, as our pattern slowly changes.

Showers and storms today won’t be terribly widespread, and will be more prominent across the eastern half of the state…

Temperatures ahead of this front may hit 80 in the east, but will drop into the 50s and 60s behind the boundary. Winds will be gusty as the cooler air pushes in.

Thursday will find a pocket of cool air located right on top of the region. The NAM family keeps clouds and a small shower chance around. That really does a number on high temps from the model…

If the clouds are not as widespread, many of us will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Regardless, the air feels much, much better with lower humidity levels.

The temps then bounce back into the mid and upper 70s for Friday and Saturday. Skies will stay partly sunny with a small shower chance in the east on Friday.

A strong cold front then works into the region on Sunday, bringing gusty winds and showers and storms…

Chilly air comes in behind this front with low and mid 60s for highs Monday into Tuesday. Lows may try to drop into the upper 30s in a few of the colder spots.

The pattern likely starts throwing deeper troughs at us as we head into the second half of October, potentially setting the stage some fun times in November. The next shot on the GFS arrives late next week…

Speaking of fun times, the GFS gave us a model run showing the first flakes of the season in the week before Halloween…

That’s out there in fantasyland, so don’t get too geeked up just yet. 😉

I’m throwing out some winter talk over the next few days, so spread the word.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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10 Responses to Temps Take A Tumble Today

  1. LD says:

    Relatives will appreciate finally getting rid of the peak summer dew points and humidity. They’re used to being able to get outside every late Sept. and Oct. Many in their 80s and none remember a late September and October like this before. Breaks in well established routines are quite memorable. Sure, it hits low 80s a couple of days sometimes in October but it still cooled off at night to near normal temps and not 15 to 20 degrees higher. Crazy.

    Funny how this stuff never shows up on the models, it’s always “gonna be cold, cold, cold” and then it only follows through very briefly or not at all or goes toward hot instead. Look at a plot of normal high and normal low temps versus actual for every day this year. It’s staggering to look at that way, even more so with the low-max temps.
    Oh and I’m looking at Mesonet sites, so none of the “but muh airport biases” matter here.

    I think Darth Bubba said a while back that “winter forecasting accuracy” seems to have leaked into the rest of the year (paraphrasing) and he is entirely correct. If my recall is hazy on that one, feel free for a correction.

    I know Andy Dalton is behind all of this, but I can’t quite prove it yet.
    Wait, I shouldn’t even joke about that as there’s probably already some nutty Facebook group promoting that theory.

    • BubbaG says:

      Yep, it appears to have leaked as noted. Will be interesting to see CB’s Winter forecast. I think we could be on the boundary between the cold and warmer air and primed for ice events rather than significant snow. Last winter most of us got an inch or less actual standing snow- We should get higher than that (nowhere to go but up), but seems more potential for big ice than big snow for our area.

      This BTW so far is the longest gap I recall for a lot of us not getting a big ice event.

    • BubbaG says:

      Hopefully mainly mix events instead of all out ice.

  2. Tess says:

    Looks like summer has rolled in the last month and I for one am thrilled. No coats or sweaters so far lol the pool still running!

  3. gordon tedford says:

    we are looking for color is there any i kenyucky now

  4. Virgil says:

    Today looks to be nice and balmy as we don’t have any cool weather in sight. We will have mostly sunny skies and look to tomorrow for more of the same. El Nino looks to continue holding off true autumn weather for the time being. Im reminded of my youth in my home town where this type of weather kept me from going into my seasonal depression for a time and I was very productive outside. /s

  5. Lori Hannon-Theaker says:

    If a bumper crop of butternuts is a sign of a hard winter, get ready! I’ve lived here for 6 years and have had just a handful each year … until now! Now I’ve got a bushel!
    Bring on the winter!

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