Interesting Weather Times Ahead

Good Tuesday to one and all.  We have a gorgeous fall week underway, with a chill in the air and sun in our sky. This nice pattern carries us into the start of the weekend, but changes start to show up after that. It’s a pattern that is threatening to take on an early winter look to end October.

Our Tuesday starts with a touch of frost out there, especially in the colder valleys. Afternoon temps reach the low and middle 60s.

Wednesday looks similar, with a bit of a warm up following that from Thursday through Saturday. Highs from 70-75 look common as we keep the sunshine.

Things begin to change quickly on Sunday as showers and thunderstorms work in from west to east. This is ahead of a healthy system that takes us into Monday…

Temps will take a huge drop as that system works through, but a follow up system delivers cold air by Tuesday…

The European Model is spot on with that…

That’s some real deal cold and could produce some flakes across the Appalachian Mountains. Here’s the animated view from Sunday through Tuesday…

The GFS Ensembles are seeing the Appalachian Mountain flake potential at the same time…

The setup following that will then feature a HUGE trough developing across the eastern half of the country. It’s one that can deliver frigid temps by October standards and the potential for some tricks before Halloween. The GFS continues to show this scenario later next week into the following weekend…

Here’s the animated version of that same particular run…

Now, I do not put a lot of stock in that “son of Sandy” solution being shown above. It’s the overall setup that I’m trying to illustrate. The pattern is can go very cold, which could deliver some flakes to the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show the flakes potential from later next week into the following weekend…

I’ve been talking more and more about a potential early start to winter. Many of my analogs have it and, obviously, we are seeing some of the medium range models seeing it. The seasonal models are also picking up on it. Check out the cold look into November on the CFS. These are 5 day averages…

Make it a great day and take care.


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6 Responses to Interesting Weather Times Ahead

  1. Double A says:

    What a GREAT forecast! Keep it coming! Last year, we hardly even had a winter! ❄️❄️❄️

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris! All I can say is BRRRR! Not sure I am ready for that type of cold just yet. Guess that isn’t going to matter. Wondering if we can get a really snowy winter this year. IF your analog years are true, then we have a shot at several good snows. As the cycle goes, we are due for one. Think I will be getting out the cold weather work gear this weekend…..sounds like I’m gonna need it! Have a great Tuesday everyone.

  3. LD says:

    We just finally have Fall in the 3rd week of October, let’s have this season FINALLY before moving on to winter.

    Early winter after a too warm fall seems like it would yield a warmer winter for the middle and end periods and put us in the ice zone.
    Let’s see if the bold prediction for the winter forecast is an ice storm.

    • Troy says:

      Couldn’t agree more with your statement LD, but easy on the ice talk…Bubba REALLY doesn’t like that word (nor does most folks) lol 🙂

  4. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Shhh Thelma Lou says lets keep the ice in the freezer. If i’m not mistaken wasn’t that a bold prediction this past winter?

  5. winter lover says:

    Yep, that was his bold prediction last year. We got luck out because it happen just west of us. Hopefully we will get some hefty snow this winter.

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