Good Saturday afternoon everyone. We have quite the little computer forecast model battle going on between the NAM and the GFS. One delivers a big snow blow to much of the state, while the other says it’s mainly across southeastern Kentucky.
In the blue corner… the NAM:
In the red corner… The GFS:
That is a nice little difference we are seeing with the current models. The interesting thing is that I can find other model support for each of them. The one constant in both runs is that southeastern Kentucky is in line for a significant snowfall. That’s pretty much a give. The battleground will be farther north and west.
My last snowfall forecast was basically a compromise between these two models. I will see how the afternoon runs look and then put out an updated snow map.
So… who ya got in this model battle royal? The NAM or the GFS? Let’s hear from you.
More updates coming… take care.
The question again. Why do we even have models aside from a big waste of tax dollars.
Because without them, most meteorologists would get replaced with an iPhone App. 🙂
🙂
When I see a comment like this I think of all the tax dollars wasted on your education. Weather forecasting saves money and lives!
some forecast genius
Thanks, CB. Come on NAM!
GO NAM! We want several inches here in LEX!
Since I want the nam, I know the gfs will be correct. Doesn’t look good
NAM!
This isn’t Nam. There are rules.
But I home NAM is right.
Shocking how different in the totals they are for central ky within 24 hours to go.
Don’t these storms typically turn north, at least somewhat? I’m far from an expert so any information is appreciated.
I’m still so skeptical. I know either way here in London, the models say we’re gonna get something, but whose to say that these models are right? We’ve all seen the weather shift at the last minute and what we were supposed to get never came…I’ll believe it when I see it…but still gotta get the plow trucks ready…
that hilllllllllllarious BAILEY.LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Huge NAM fan here in Lex, but fear the GFS wins out. HPC commentary yesterday mentioned the NAM’s tendency to over estimate northern precipitation and I fear the WAA may be too difficult to displace. By the time this thing wins battle in Central KY, it may be too late. For Lexington only, I’m hoping for the compromise and at least two or three inches.
Agreed.
Seems best to take 2/3 of the weight of the GFS and 1/3 of the NAM and that is the forecast.
This means downgrade of CB’s maps IMO, unless CB thinks the NAM has the most weight. Another key is when does the main mositure from the system hit.
I can say the local and regional mets are not considering the NAM and going mainly with the Euro and GFS.
Yeppers, I sense this post from CB could be a bridge to a downgraded snow map post.
I’m in the SE, we are possibly getting the higher totals, taking into consideration of the ground being to warm, etc., etc…wonder how much of actual
Yeah I’m in Whitley Co. It seems quite a big difference between the 2 models. uess we’ll just have to wait and see…I can’t believe how close we are to the proposed storm and still no agreement in the models…other than there is a storm out there.
I think it will be somewhere in between for many of us, but that’s just an unscientific guess.
oops…gonna say how much of that would actually be measureable???
setting in the NAM’s corner….BUT…my gut says the gfs has had its wheaties today…lol..
So either way it looks like us here in Middlesboro will see a good snowfall!? We are due one considering we haven’t even had a winter this year….Bring it on!
i am voting for the NAM it gives me alittle more snow! Come on and move NORTH!
Wham, bam, thank you NAM!
😀
Not looking forward to possible power outages or trees coming down in Laurel County, but our NAM 8″-10″ is looking really nice for a BIG snowman and snow cream! GFS gives us at least 5″ which is still a guaranteed snow day on Monday.
All I know is that I hope London gets plenty of snow because WE NEED A SNOW DAY !!!!!!!!!!
Must be a tough call either way because there is still no alert mode. Hope the snow and colder air can overcome these warm ground temps. Think big!
Very good point. Too close NOT to be in alert mode if CB was heading there. Running out of runway for the actual event, so I sense doubt.
Pulling for the NAM, for sure. (Since they are in the BLUE corner) 😉
GO NAM, and GO CATS!!!! thanks Chris. Guess now its a wait and see thing……
Gosh almighty, we are suppossed to be less than 24 hrs and we dont know. ..Big difference in the models..I don’t know who to pick, I know we all want the NAM…But to be honest lets get rid of both of them and make up our own, This is crazy!
My forecast for Madison Co. (ky)..1 inch or 10 inch..notice I didn’t say inbetween, Its going to be either 1 or 10..There you go, …my own. forecast for my part of the world..
If CB was confident in threat mode, we would probably be there now. Seems CB is going to adjust to what the rest of the mets are saying, which is mainly guided by the GFS.
We have our Sumo humor post to bridge to the map downgrade. Yes, I am cynical like that 😉
Then again, will CB go lone wolf and stick to mainly the NAM? If so, his current map is still the composite of the two, except for some northern areas will need lopped off again.
What we may have here is a receding snowline.
I think you may just be right BubbaG. I had hopes earlier of a northerly trend, but I think that hope is gone.
Go NAM!!!!
Headed out to the UK/Ole Miss game. In 1978, UK put a beat down on Ole MIss the night of the historic 1978 snowstorm. We walked from campus to Rupp in snow up to our hips. An omen?
NAM all the way!!!
I also wote for NAM but I think GFS will win out. I live in Staffordsville, KY, I;m thinking in the line of 3″-5″ for my area.
Wait…isnt the NAM more reliable within 24 hours? I thought the GFS was long range primarily?
Somehow I think they are both out to lunch, LOL.
Anyway, hubby and I decided to see where the snow hits then pack up the 4 wheel drive and get to it 😉
Nice attitude 🙂
Thanks Bub 🙂
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love it to hit right here in ole ETown. But I’m not going to pout if it doesn’t…too much energy wasted on negativity. Rather use that energy when I find a good snow hill… due east 😉
I have one question- is the Sumo wrestler the NAM or GFS?
I would think the NAM being as it is showing more snow
Makes sense- lol.
…and he’s not the one wearing red shorts!
This is all kind of crazy to me. This was a plow by the groceries ….lol
NWS is all over the GFS, they are thinking about lowering snow totals on the nwest edge of watch. Looks like most of central KY will get a deck duster?
Deck slusher
here is Jim C blog
. http://www.wkyt.com/blogs/easternkentuckyweather/Are_You_Ready_139576913.html
I agree with this, since it fits my outlook for the last few days 😉
well no matter who wins, I lose! On the outside looking in. I’ll root for the NAM hoping more are made happy. I would almost rather know I have lost now as opposed to the huge diss appointment some stand to feel. Good luck to all, and I will be looking in.
same here..very disappointed. Scioto County, right on the edge but not allowed inside the gate.
2 others in the mix we can’t forget: seasonal trend and warmth. And remember this battle sets up in The DOME! Enough said. May drive to E Ky tomorrow to see some snow!
I think that is the key here. It seems perhaps the GFS has “learned” more than the NAM in regards to the trends and thermals.
There is a fancy thing called trend regression that is a powerful set of data, since it is the actual results. Models that keep missing usually have forecast maintenance issues (not been adjusted to account for the misses).
Very presumptuous on my part, since CB may be setting us up for a good surprise, rather than a bad one. Not that a bad one would be real surprise, of course.
I am voting for the NAM!
And crossing my fingers and toes to help it out a little bit! 🙂
I’ll pick the NAGFMS
LOOKING AT 12Z MODEL RUNS…GIVING A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE GFS VS
THE NAM DUE TO ITS INGEST OF DROPSONDE DATA OVER THE GULF. THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS FOR THE EVENT BUT
STILL DEPICTS WARNING CRITERIA OVER OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES. A CONSENSUS
OF NAM/SREF/GFS/EURO WOULD STILL PLACE MOST OF THE CWA IN A GENERIC 4
TO 6 INCH RANGE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR…WITH
HPC/S WWD ALONG WITH THE EURO AND NAM ALL DEPICTING A POTENTIAL FOR
AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES. STILL COORDINATING/COLLABORATING WITH THE
NEIGHBORS BUT WILL LIKELY BE RAISING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA INTO A
WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
My guess is we could see a revision to advisory for everyone except the far east south eats areas of the state.
Never trust the NWS, or any government agency for that matter, to tell you what’s right.
I don’t take their forcasts seriously, I only posted this for others to see their thoughts!! CB is my forcast man, I trust him, and whether he’s right or bust, ONLY he can make something like weather FUN!!! 😛
Yes, it’s a vast conspiracy, all directed at you. Hide, quickly.
And? 😉
I love this blog! Best picture I’ve seen in a while. I’m still sticking with a more northerly and westerly track as the NAM indicates. Things will cool down quicker than people think and the flakes will start flying. The NAM gets the victory this time.
You are very consistent 🙂
Let us discuss this again, same time tomorrow 😉
hmm who said at 7am we be advisdory at best time it got here,hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
wonder who, i know the FLIP FLOPPER some call.
Rolo you are the master of the “rolocoaster” and that is why you rock 🙂
51 mild degrees in The metro. Good luck to our friends in the southeastern parts of the state. Looks good for the snow lovers there. I see a mix of the NAM and GFS scenario setting up.
I’d rather eat dirt than look at that run of the GFS. Yuck!
Come on NAM!!!!
Brian Goode WAVE TV
Advisories and warnings will be out in about an hour. I will post once they are issued.
click on the link below to see Wave3 brand new snow map….you guys will NOT like it….
the most ANYONE gets by this map is 2-4″!!
GFS is the soup of the day.
http://m.facebook.com/?_rdr#!/photo.php?fbid=255429947868100&id=117030598374703&set=a.123240361087060.24176.117030598374703&__user=661415355
We might not like CB’s next map either. I think the little dude in the picture above is the NAM.
If everything holds together as is, it looks like the southern low will outrun the Arctic cold moving into the region. My best guess is the eastern half of the state will get hammered while the western part has mostly rain.
No Alert mode?? Then there is nothing to see here.
Much like my basketball team,,, GO BIG BLUE!! NAM all the way!!!
12Z euro backs up the gfs southeast ky special only. edge of accums from BG to Lex.
I hate to say it, but I may be adjusting my first call snow map. Normally at 36 hours out, it’s pretty accurate, but the delay in the onset of snow has got my attention enough. Too many variables working against a big snow the further north one goes.
I’ll be posting thoughts after 6pm this evening…take care
well Jim Caldwell posted a 2 to 4 inch map last night for most areas and I kinda snickered at it since everyone else was giving much more but now I have to wander if wasn’t onto something!
Here’s one Mets Forecast ..Seems reasonable to me..After this system im ready for it to dry up..Time to start Gardening..
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/snowfall-forecast-photo-5
Wow this has went downhill fast. Kentucky weather at its best. No alert basically means no worried I’m afraid 🙁
The thing is it was never really up the hill in the first place except the snow map here.
This just sucks !!! I really wanted to sled with my child. Mercer will see nothing I am sure !
Remember who they said was laughing at the blog yesterday? Boo-Hoo!
This has been an east KY storm from the beginning.
Get over all the bitterness that you aren’t included and start discussing it as such.
In folks defense here, a snow map that goes goes far beyond east KY for a good snow is why they were included in the first place.
Your rationale seems convenient 😉
If there were any good news, chris would have tweetedh it. Definitely a bad sign. Wonder if there is any hope left
latest tweet
SREF leaning more toward the NAM depiction from earlier..Maybe there’s hope for all of ky yet..
I’m sure certain people will come around to dispute it at any second.
An hour from now will tell the tell when the 18z nam comes out. If it holds, it may be on to something
i say this these guys get paid do this, there several on this blog andd u know we all love ya, but and i have to say the HYPE caught them all in another MISS!!LOL
heck even i was in it yesterday, but even hillbilly common sense kick in as i look at it at 4am or so this morning and relized to warm.
Hillbilly common sense? Sure…..
Oh shut up.
When is the onset of this storm?
Depending on track and speed of the low among other things, the rain-snow transition may not happen until after midnight, perhaps not until after daybreak in some places.
Rain is knocking on the doorsteps of Memphis and Huntsville now.
i live in SE KY and I take all bets, we get 2 slushy inches we feel like the p4 ticket i bet earlier hit.lolllllllllllllllllllllllll
anybody watching WHITNEY FUNERAL, love it!!!
Nope don’t plan on it either
rolo buddy you are killing us now what did you tell us yesterday calm down love ya rolo…..
so now chris sends out a tweet about leaning towards the nam and warnings coming out soon. I wonder if he is sitting in his lounge chair in Ashland enjoying the hysteria and mental trauma he is creating. 🙂
I didn’t see where stated that..All he said was ” SREF leaning more toward the NAM depiction from earlier”…The more models that hop on the nam train the better..
but ole BAILEY still in GAME, says WINTER STORM WARNINGS ready to be issued,
Go Big Blue!! 🙂
Wouldn’t it be be nice if it wasn’t a big vs little battle the way NAM and GFS are now?
Instead, it’s Chuck Norris and Bruce Lee and Jackie Chan and Jim Kelly and Evan Kim…..but all working together. Yea, NAM, GFS, Canadian, European, Japanese models, all looking formidable, and in harmony. 😛
Yep, just look at what happened when Bigfoot, The Six Million Dollar Man and The Bionic Woman stopped battling each other and became a team. They sure kicked bionic behind 😉
Bigfoot is seen in Ky more Often than winter storms 🙂 !!
Just out of curiosity what does the SREF stand for?
short range ensemble forecast- beyond that I dont have a clue.
so everyone in the winter storm warning.
I am beginning to wonder if anyone really knows anything at this point…..lol
The 18z nam gave up. Went south with other models. Just too many issues going against it.probably just need advisories now for cky.
Wow now that is all I needed to see. I can officially give up now. All models now pretty much on the sam page of a rather light event…..another “what if”
I’m gonna need an image link…. cause I clicked above and either I don’t understand these things or what I’m seeing at 24 hours out is completely different than what you’re seeing….
For CATS fans and snow lovers, Fun purposes only, If the snow gods gave you guys a huge Kentucky snow storm tomorrow, would you be willing in trade take a 25 point UK loss today???? lol Gotta pick one, UK win without snow or Kentucky blizzard with a huge UK defeat : )
Welcome Spring!!! LOL!
Same here Patty : ) GO BIG BLUE
The last time we had a large snow storm 98! Last National Championship 98! We need both! also 96 storm/Championship???
I’m all about blue!!!!
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW..WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY
TO 1 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS…EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
__________________________________________________________
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM
EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS…NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…SMALL PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
OHIO…MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.
UK win and no snow. What kind of a question is that? Not much comes between me and the BOYS in BLUE!!!!!!!!!
hmm who said AVISDORY at best, wonder who at 5am this morn.
fact is the NAM was a fraud, it did used to be reliable short term but its JUNK now, its a DREAM FACTOR folks.
your becoming tiresome with all these comments patting yourself on the back Rolo chill out please
Rolo buddy, you were saying the exact opposite for the past two days and giving people big snow totals.
The misnomer here is the snow map. It seemed too high in the first place. No offense to CB, since he normally rocks with these events. This winter has hurt the batting average.
Still a chance, since anything is possible. Ah, who am I kidding?
I know what the models say and what the mets are saying. I also no our past. I am not sure we ever had a big storm predicted correctly in the past. Every time we get a big storm the models always waffle. They always show big storm then start to back off until the event happens. I am leaning the same will happen with this storm. I think it has more potential to overachieve then underachieve.
Agree! They never see the big ones coming, could be a good sign they are backing off??
I am getting ready to go out and watch the game.Before I go remember that the 6z&18z are junk science. The 0z will probably settle this matter for good. I think the gfs is going to win this time.
I give up. This may be the first time I’ll ever say this but honestly i just want this storm to leave so that we can all get our heads back on. I never get any good snows……
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN, TENN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY
TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.
JOHNSON-UNICOI-SOUTHEAST CARTER-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MOUNTAIN CITY…ERWIN…ROAN MOUNTAIN…
JONESVILLE…WISE…NORTON…GATE CITY…LEBANON…ABINGDON
328 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT…
WINTER STORM WARNING for who
Extreme Southwest Virginia
Sorry.Listed the counties under the blog. This is for NE Tenn
Brian Goode WAVE TV
Latest NAM: weaker. A bit south. Little if anything for louisville. Borderline warning snows to the south.
What a terrible winter!
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
324 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
KYZ098-099-OHZ088-190430-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0005.120219T1100Z-120220T0500Z/
ROBERTSON-MASON-SCIOTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MOUNT OLIVET…MAYSVILLE…PORTSMOUTH
324 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT…
* HAZARD TYPES…ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
* ACCUMULATIONS…1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF…VANCEBURG
324 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT…
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* HAZARD TYPES…ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
* ACCUMULATIONS…1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW….WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTY.
National Weather Service in Charleston has downgraded a bunch of counties from WSW to WWA. Either that’s not a good sign, or they are making a mistake.
Yeah… I’m done with it. Either it’s gonna snow or not. Looking to and listening to all the back and forth from these maps is giving me anxiety! I’m hoping for a good snow, but I’m doubtful we’re ever gonna get it. It’s been way too long at this point… perhaps it’s time to move to maine.
My 50% chance of snow for Sunday was changed to a 50% chance of rain/snow by NWS in Paducah. Now, it has changed again to only a 30% chance of snow.
Well, if the NWS is to be believed, this will be yet another non-event for the LEX area…14 years of big snow drought are hard to fight…sigh…
Perhaps CB is in a state of denial…….
I like using Mr. Earl Baker Snowfall Forcast Models!
http://wxcaster4.com/animate/eta40km_loops.php3?type=nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL&width=1580&height=1180
R u kidding me ..I guess well get the I inch
In WV, Huntington and Charleston were under a Winter Storm Watch. It has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. NWS thinks that area will see only 1-4 inches. I live about a hour from Parkersburg. We weren’t issued anything. The NWS think an inch or less for us. I’m not that unhappy about. Its a relief, actually. We may not have to worry about power outages. That is, if it plays out that way.
I am no expert by any means….but wouldn’t a change from WSW to WWA be no more than a change not a downgrade? I mean I understand it didnt go to a warning but an advisory means “something WILL happen” and a watch means “there is a POSSIBILITY it will happen” right?
still looks decent enough
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif
ugh… 2 inches of snow is not nearly as decent as what the map way up at the top shows… 🙁
My money is on GFS right now.
I did go ahead and update my snow maps with slightly lower totals. What an unbelievable winter so far.
So much hype/excitement over such a rather small snow. Well it was fun getting excited until the day of the storm……GO REDS!!!
Nothing left to see folks, move along…… to far east Ky
What about the HPC? CB tweeted it….they must know something the rest of us don’t! 4″ line is almost to Louisville. IS there still hope?
Where’s. Wx man?
lol….I’ll has took my backyard totals here in Knox co from 3 to 6 down to 1 to 3!!! So what’s up with that!!!!
depends on what ya read Timmy
Also no warning or even alert from chris shows there is nothing to see here
Jackson had London/Corbin down to 1-3″. They just upgraded it to 4 – 6″!! Guess we will have to see.
I would be so disappointed to see 1-3 inches when CB’s snowfall map less than 24 hours out has 6-12. lol
amen!! Me to
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-OWSLEY-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…IRVINE…STANTON…FRENCHBURG…
MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SOMERSET…LONDON…MONTICELLO…
WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…BARBOURVILLE…
MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…WEST LIBERTY…CAMPTON…BEATTYVILLE…
BOONEVILLE…MANCHESTER
430 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT
WILL LIKELY BE PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
* FOUR TO SIX INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA…PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY AND NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SIX
TO EIGHT INCHES COULD OCCUR IN LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.
* TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFICULT ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION…
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY AND
WET…WHICH COULD RESULT IN DAMAGED OR DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS…
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
Winter Storm Warning…Woo Hoo! NWS says London in 5″-8″. We’ll take it.
Hey, that was supposed to be Richmond! 😉
Cool!
sorry guys and gals but i told u earrlyy this morning our as TEDDY KGB said HOPES AND DREAMS CRUMBLE AWAY…
we got a well u know if u watch rounders.
hey next year we can dream RIGHT!! lol
its ok,
Rolo….you flip flopping again. With this winter being so pathetic, 4-8 inches of snow is a gold mine. Let’s be thankful we could be getting something.
your gonna pull something patting yourself on the back like that 😉
Too late Rolo bud,
You can’t talk smack about the NAM being great and old school and then have a do-over 😉
This is clearly a storm in which the “average Joe” can figure the weather out. When the storm is over, then measure it with a yard stick and wah-lah, you have your snow totals!!!!
It’s awfully warm out there. Its hard to imagine that there will be snow on the ground tomorrow morning. But, this is Kentucky. Anything can happen.
Kentuckyweather Chris Bailey
Winter Weather Advisory for Lexington to Bowling Green. Winter Storm Warning areas east and south of that.
13 minutes ago
As I was reading your post, the advisory popped up on my phone… I really want mother nature to pound Lexington,,,the more the better!!
It is easy to tell which model the NWS offices are going with. I think we might be in for a surprise. At 4:30 p.m. there is moisture showing up on radars in southern MO and in central KS. This may be aloft, but something is there, and the main batch that will get us is due south. I am not throwing in the towel yet for north central KY, though I would not expect a huge dump either. Should be an interesting overnight.
I seem to remember a storm last year that all the models said would dump on southcentral and southeastern KY, but it would up clobbering west KY. Probably a different setup, etc, etc, but things can and do change!
HARLAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HARLAN…PAINTSVILLE…SALYERSVILLE…
PRESTONSBURG…JACKSON…HINDMAN…HAZARD…HYDEN…WHITESBURG…
INEZ…PIKEVILLE
430 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
__________________________________________________________
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-OWSLEY-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…IRVINE…STANTON…FRENCHBURG…
MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SOMERSET…LONDON…MONTICELLO…
WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…BARBOURVILLE…
MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…WEST LIBERTY…CAMPTON…BEATTYVILLE…
BOONEVILLE…MANCHESTER
430 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
Even the NWS has changed and upped thier totals from 2-4 to 4-6 now in the Winter Storm Warning!
joe bastardi is saying at least 6 inches through most of wva into most of eky except for the mts of wva where over a foot can fall. at least 3 inches in southern ohio.
Nws upgrade me from 3-7 inches tomorrow and 1-2 inches tomorrow night. I have no clue what is going on LOL
54 balmy degrees in big LouLou. Think I’ll grill and chill. Have fun southern ky peeps. Not hatin on you guys but Ma Nature. She’s a troll this year.
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ELLIOTT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLEMINGSBURG…MOUNT STERLING…
OWINGSVILLE…MOREHEAD…SANDY HOOK
430 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST
SUNDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST
SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
__________________________________________________________
CB is probably cracking up at the chaos here.
Jim C only have Knott co 4-6 inches and Lous/lexington 2-4
Bring on spring! Like, now! This snow is just going to be a nuisance.
This snow event reminds me of all the flip-flopping of politicians. What in the world is going to happen?
What am I missing here? The radar is blossoming over Ark and Oklahoma and precip is going east-northeast putting it on a track similar to what the NAM is saying. Is it going to suddenly go due east?
A quote from the 1998 snow… “The snow was coming, then it wasn’t, then it fell in great feathery clumps late in the day.” (found in an article from Kentucky(dot)com about weather myths).
I’m hoping for something very similar 😛
PS. If I remember correctly, the day before the 1998 storm was a very mild day as well. I remember coming out of a Lex. Cath game that night and thinking, “Hm… flurries, wouldn’t it be cool if we could have a snow day tomorrow?” Little did we know we’d get a whole week!
l know what lets do CONFUSE EVERYONE completely by issuing winter storm warnings!! 4 to 6 or more inches of snow but say 1 to 4 over the airways and point and click forecasts. Come on for Pete sakes!!!
Hey at least the bridge is open here in Louisville????
And the Cards won!!!
Dreaming of summer and 90’s…..
That darius miller dunk shook the storm north. Snow galore now!!!!!!
Hey Rolo, winter storm warning for gunchester…..Surprise!
Hello everybody. Look back over the last 20 years, and this set up, which is a relatively rare one over the recent years, is one that the models and the mets struggle with. It is simply complicated. We may get an inch, or we could get 2 feet. You remember the dusting, as many have referenced. Once this thing gets wrapped up, no one, except God, knows really what it will do. Old Chris Bailey, in my humble opinion, is being restrained in this. Don’t be suprised if this storm over achieves as far as the snow. So many of the tv and other national mets wont kick at the football like Bubba says. They are too afraid for Lucy to pull it back. They are simply seeking for cover. However, this storm is a monster already and it is going to explode. We may get nothing, but I would not be suprised if the SE Ky. area got upwards of 16 inches. It is yet to be determined.
Well, I’m happy that Madison county is under the Winter Storm Warning. For now.
is the storm in dallas or near the gulf
I believe the Low is close to Dallas.
LOL..How many more model runs are left..Looks like the GFS has shifted more to the southeast again..Eastern Ky will not get as much as thought the way its looking..
I don’t understand these comments on here. It seems everyone thinks this is going to a bust of a storm but the NWS has upgraded to a WSW and CB is showing a potential for up to 10 inches of snow. Am I missing something?
I’m wondering the same thing. If NWS puts out a warning, then something is obviously on the way. They are the last ones to ever admit anything is heading our way. If anything they normally are on the low end of totals always. If they say 4 I would lean toward 6+.
I’m enjoying reading all these comments while I wait for Chris to post. 🙂
Its because half of the people who thought they were getting snow are now getting very little or nothing and they are the ones posting. As the storm tracks shifts back south, those of us left behind (I am in Louisville = no snow) are reflecting from our perspective. There will be people who get hammered! Chris will tell you which ones and he is always on the money…
Well, the evenings runs are in and the storm doesn’t look as good. Nws upgraded so who knows
Look like we’re downgraded to Winter Weather Advisory…what’s the heck??
A map from a certain WKYT competitor shows my home county (Boyle) under an advisory and the county I am in today for work (Lincoln) under a warning. o_O
I wonder how long after it starts raining will it take the temps to start falling & wonder when CB will put up new post?