Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. The upcoming pattern continues to look VERY busy and VERY cold as we get ready to end October and usher in November. Cold shots are lining up, with the potential for an early season taste of winter weather showing up across the region.

To kick things off, we have a potent storm system rolling in here later Sunday and Monday. That system is already throwing some clouds our way, with a few showers and storms across far western Kentucky…


Low pressure develops to our southwest on Sunday and rolls across the state Sunday night and Monday. This will bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and gusty winds…

The rainfall potential from this system is impressive. This looks like a general 1″-3″ rainfall to much of the state, with locally higher amounts possible. The GFS is showing enough to cause some local high water issues…

Cold air crashes in behind the departing storm with temps falling all day Tuesday. Strong northwesterly winds will create numerous showers…

Temps by Wednesday stay in the 40s for highs. Lows drop into the 30s and should go below freezing by Thursday morning.

Winds will be gusty as temps recover some by Thursday and early Friday. This is ahead of a colder push of air arriving for the weekend. It’s likely to be accompanied by some decent rains along and ahead of our front…

Can the cold air catch up to the back edge of the rain shield and produce some flakes across the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains? Hmmm

The overall pattern continues to show similarities to November of 2014. A few days ago, I outlined the super typhoon connection from that year to this year as a potential indicator of where this setup may lead us.

Just take a look the endless troughs digging in here through the first week of November…

That spells COLD…

If the pattern plays out as it appears to, it would be hard for us not to get the first flakes of the season at some point by the first few days of November.

I will update everything again tonight. Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.


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6 Responses to Saturday Afternoon Update

  1. Machell says:

    Yay on 1st flakes!!!! Looking forward to seeing it fly.
    🙂

  2. Zap Rowsdower says:

    I think your spell checker is a little off. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a “Busty” pattern!

  3. Glad we moved home from NC. Bring it on!

  4. Spirit says:

    Thank you so much Chris for being you!! I love reading your blog!

  5. Chris Mercer says:

    Good stuff! Hopefully we will start a string of below normal months!

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