A Cold End To October

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a lot of wind and rain on the way over the next few days, and this leads us into a much colder than normal pattern. Several cold shots are lining up to take aim at our region through early November. Can we get a touch of winter weather to go along with the cold? That’s a possibility.

Let us start with what’s going on out there today and roll forward.

Showers and thunderstorms increase across western Kentucky, and some of the rains can be heavy. Central and eastern parts of the state should stay mainly dry until the evening and overnight…

Low pressure is developing to our southwest today and rolls our way into Monday, bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms our way. The models all show a general 1″-3″, but vary on placement of the highest totals…




Gusty winds will usher in much colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday. The northwesterly wind flow will also create some showers, especially in the central and east. The high mountains of the Appalachian Mountains to our east may pick up the first flakes of the season.

Temps by Wednesday and Thursday mornings may hit the freezing mark in some spots.

Milder winds will blow by Friday, ahead of a much stronger cold front sweeping in for the start of the weekend. Gusty rains will be likely along and ahead of this boundary…

That’s another good rain maker, helping add to our already robust October totals. It’s a month that may hit top ten wettest Octobers on record.

Watch the cold air crash in behind this front…

Can the cold temps catch the back edge of the rain shield, giving us a chance for a flake? Will that strong northwesterly flow be a flurry maker across parts of the region? Both of those questions are still several days away from being answered, but they are valid.

Thermometer readings behind our front drop into the upper 30s and low 40s and we may squeeze out a day or two where highs hang in that general vicinity. A hard freeze is likely with, at least, a few mornings deep into the 20s. We may even be talking about wind chills…

The Ensembles have been all over the colder pattern for a while now and they show it through early November…

They have also been throwing out the potential for some early season flakes in the Ohio Valley. The GFS Ensembles have grown even more bullish through the first week of November…

Again, I’m only showing these to illustrate the potential for some flakes to fly at some point in the next few weeks.

As we get into late fall and winter, one of the main indicies I look at is the EPO. When it goes negative, chances are our pattern turns colder. The current forecast through early November has a -EPO developing…

I will update things again later today, so check back. Have a great day and take care.

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7 Responses to A Cold End To October

  1. DenaA says:

    Thanks, Chris! I’m looking forward to some “crisp and cold” mornings!

  2. Steve Bailes says:

    What does EPO mean?

  3. Michael R says:

    I love the weather turning colder. Over the last 10-15 years a drastic turn colder in early Nov has led to a holiday warm-up that lasts until late Jan. Hopefully we break that pattern this year.

  4. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Looking forward to blistering cold myself. 😉

  5. Mike S says:

    It could be a blip, but it seems the most recent QPF estimates have lowered a little bit.

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