Saturday Evening Winter Storm Thoughts

Good evening everyone. A winter storm is working our way from the southwest and will begin to impact the state late tonight into Sunday. This storm will deliver a heavy, wet snowfall for much of southern and eastern Kentucky. This is the area now under a Winter Storm Warning.

A Winter Weather Advisory is out for counties just to the north and west of the warning counties. The warning and advisory look to be spot on with my thinking…

I will have a final call for snowfall coming later tonight and that will, as usual, be the forecast of record.

The HPC snowfall outlooks are fairly bullish on this event…

Don’t forget to check out the radars, currents and weather cams at the top of the page. Those will help you track our developing winter storm.

Check back later tonight for the Final Call For Snowfall and my latest thoughts. Have a great evening and take care.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

231 Responses to Saturday Evening Winter Storm Thoughts

  1. Andy Rose says:

    Thanks Chris

  2. snow princess says:

    Thanks Chris, I sure needed that update, LOL!!! I hope to get in on the upper end of the spectrum here in Gunchester! :P

  3. Vinny says:

    Folks, this storm is staying south… Anyone surprised?

  4. james says:

    Thanks CB. Well it’s been a fun couple of days tracking this, even if we don’t get much. At least they are down playing this now instead of calling for a lot and it not happening.

  5. Grant says:

    Thx Chris! Come on man, you know you want to move that line a little farther east, you know you want too.

  6. Teach59 says:

    Thanks for the updates! You know we’d get snow when school is already closed!!!!

  7. Ready4Snow says:

    Kinda odd seeing the models move more southward this late in the game..wonder if there’s something in the northern stream supressing it southward..Sure would of liked to seen the whole state in on this..Like i said earlier when this one’s over hope it drys up..Ready4Gardening..

  8. bgbecky says:

    Still holding out hope that BG will get at least 3 inches. Really hope the storm isn’t a complete bust, like all the others :(

    • Mark says:

      Both Bowling Green and Nashville stations seem to be zeroing in on the 1 to 2 inch range. Of course that could change either way as the rain-to-snow transition isn’t until early Sun. Even weather.com is still showing Nashville 2 to 4 inches, but recent model trends may cast some doubt on that.

      Regardless of how much accumulation, the snow cover will be short-lived with temps near 60 later in week.

  9. JJ in Pikeville says:

    Looking forward to this one in P-ville. Hope we are closer to the 10 inch range.

  10. Chelle says:

    Glad I didnt get my hopes up lol

    • pattyVersailles says:

      I think I did Chelle, even though I’ve talke spring lately!! I thought I’d play that strategy with nature, but I think nature will call my bluff!! LOL!

  11. Bobt says:

    Map continues to shrink fro most. It’s 2012 and still can’t make an accurate forecast 12 hours before the event. You would think models would be better than they are. Guess we will take what we get.

  12. rolo says:

    VINNY!!! UR COACH was at UK GAME!!

  13. Louis says:

    There is a ton of moisture and it is going to feed further north than what some of the models are projecting. This means when it meets the colder air people will see more in the northern areas than what is being modeled. Don’t give up hope yet. Not saying Fayette county on up will get clobbered, but it will be more than what the NWS is projecting.

    • c-BIV says:

      we are the bigtime minority on this but I agree!! Time will tell.

    • james says:

      We can only hope.

    • Jake S. says:

      Holding onto hope…

    • Debbie says:

      I’ve been saying this same thing ALL DAY, and will again. From DAY ONE, we’ve heard “This Winter is going to be WILD!”; “Dec/Jan/Feb (pick one) is going to be out-right BRUTAL, Folks!”, blahblahblah…At some point,every forecast model has been wrong, every wx office has been on a 24/7 ‘Hershey Bar & Mountain Dew” break, and the weathercaster’s have yet to get a solid clue on what any possible “storm” was going to do. How many times have we all heard that phrase “Now-Casting” at any given point, right up until the tornado tears the roof off the barn, or the first seventeen flakes fall on your back deck?! Think about it. This winter has been a humdinger to predict, and that’s why I think this scenario will play out just the same. Just go to bed tonight, wake up in the morning, look out your window or walk out on the porch (front or back), then we will all KNOW FOR SURE! :)
      I’m not discounting ANYTHING @ this point in time. I STILL think we might ALL get a big surprise. That’s MY hope, anyway! :D I mean, my whole week thus far has really sucked the Biggin’, so I have to have SOMETHING to hold on to! :D

  14. Rob says:

    Looks like he has lowered totals for my area we were -6-12 inprevious snowfall map we are now in 4-8 he has moved the higher numbers farther east which is great i do not want a repeat of a couple years back when some in my area were without power for 2 weeks. I hope this storm stays south i hate this heavy wet snow.

  15. Jamie says:

    Winter has been so disappointing for Central KY these last few years, not because of NO snow, but because of events like this…over, and over, and over again…so I have decided that this storm can go thru Alabama for all i care. Bring on Spring.

  16. rolo says:

    tx LEGEND.

  17. WXman says:

    Looks like southeastern KY are the lucky ones this time for sure.

  18. Coffeelady says:

    I see a storm that has been a bugger to forecast. I see several meteorologists that have had a hard time with it. I see models that can’t agree even this close. And I see one who has talked about this storm for quite a while, and what it could bring. Chris, I think you are spot on, and whatever happens, I want to thank you for all your hard work. It is fun to track systems, and see how it comes out. Appreciate you, and all you do. Hope we get what is predicted. Would love to see it.

  19. Shawon says:

    Hold the phone…the NWS warnings and advisories are spot on with Chris’ thinking? That doesn’t happen every day. ;-)

    It also tells me that I can put a high level of confidence in that snowfall forecast…

  20. Andy Rose says:

    Wkty sticking with 6-8 for knox

  21. emc says:

    I bet NAM on next model run goes north again. I bet the GFS also trends a little more northwest.

  22. Waffles says:

    Anyone else noticing the eastward momentum of the actual storm? Ignoring the models, this system appears to stay well south. The very southern tip of ky may get some action. Yes i see the light snow shield reaching close to nky, but wont be much moisture for more than maybe an inch from corbin to lex

    • jonb says:

      Think you may be looking at the wrong part

      • waffles says:

        ha, I know what part to look at, I’m not expecting the storm in GA to pull a Uey. I don’t see moisture building back to the west of the actual low. I think we will see some heavy mix that’s about it. It won’t switch to all snow till the very back edge in the last hour or 2.

  23. tornadolarkin says:

    center of low pressure appears to be in southwest louisiana. actually looks a bit northwest of forecast track to me.

    • jonb says:

      I expect a nw trend with the 0z nam. Got a bad feeling people are downplaying this

      • tornadolarkin says:

        I’m sorry jonb, but i have to say, even i have given up. You don’t have to give up, but I have given up. And I never give up. We need a miracle, I’m still praying hard.

        • jonb says:

          Don’t give up yet larkin! At least hold out hope until the 0z nam. The models can shift as easily nw as they can se, and praying is the best thing you can ever do. If the Lord wants us to get snow, no computer model will stop Him.

  24. vanessa short says:

    How much for eastren kentucky.

  25. BubbaG says:

    Well, the positive is it will be warming up on Monday, so whatever does fall will end up being a slushy mess, real quick. Also, snowmen will have a very short life expectancy.

    Heck even slay riding is awkward in heavy wet snow. Power issues are also possible for anything past five inches of heavy snow.

    See, does that make folks feel better? :)

    • tornadolarkin says:

      Not really, lol. I want snow, even if I lose power. I mean, its gonna be warm as you said. Not like the temps are gonna drop to negative 20 haha. But losing power isnt that great either.

      • Mark says:

        “Not like the temps are gonna drop to negative 20″

        We (east TN) dropped to something like -7F after the 93 blizzard, no power. Parents, both siblings, the dogs, cat, and I all crowded in the den by the fireplace.

        Fortunately, there was rapid warmup in the following days, after all it was mid-March.

        • tornadolarkin says:

          That was COMPLETELY different. You can’t even begin to remotely compare the superstorm to this one. Nowhere close. I could listen several things that had that this doesn’t.

          • tornadolarkin says:

            *list

            • Todd says:

              Were you even born in superstorm 1993???

              • tornadolarkin says:

                No, but I know a ton about it. This was arguably the most significant winter storm in United States history. every major airport on the east coast was shut down at some point. This low set record low pressures all across the east coast. The derecheo that cross florida brought storm surge rivaling a hurricane. EKY was slammed with over a foot of wet snow. Syracuse had 4 feet of snow. Records were set for snowfall, and it even snowed in the florida panhandle. You don’t have to be born to know what happened. Just saying, not trying to be a smart alack or be mean in any way.

          • Mark says:

            Well, of course they are way different.

            Are we missing your point?

            • tornadolarkin says:

              Sorry if I came across as offensive, not trying to be. And my point was that given that it wont be too cold, I wouldn’t mind having a ton of snow here and losing power for a day. But, thats just me. Only down thing is I dont wanna lose all the food in the fridge. lol

              • Mark says:

                I was only trying to interject a childhood memory. 93 was actually a bit scary to this nine year old, although a big adventure, too. Gusts so strong they caused the whole house to creak. Some snow drifts were nearly at window level. A neighbor had a few inches of snow piled *inside* their garage, at least by the door, all that snow was driven under a tiny gap under the garage door. I could go on and on. I’ll remember 93 as long as I live.

  26. tornadolarkin says:

    Interesting, on the SPC mslp loop, the low actually lows actually looks like its is tightening rather quickly.

  27. Andy Rose says:

    John jacobs with nws was on twc saying that tn border counties 6-8 inches and montains could see 10

  28. Renee says:

    Hoping for snow. My daughter wants to see it so bad. Lexington, hasn’t been lucky this year though. And to think I actuallly bought her a sled this year. I was thinking about planning an early summer vacation since there hasn’t been any snow days. Think that will bring on the snow? ha!

  29. Lincoln says:

    I bet $100, this storm is more north than anticipated. Whoever before me said it best when they said, underplayed.

  30. Lyla says:

    I’m an optimist! Perhaps weatherly naive -does louisville have a prayer of a chance for ANY white stuff?

  31. KeavyMan says:

    Got StormScapeLive (stormchaser) going live tomorrow in London! For a stormchaser to be in the area, it must going to be getting rough. He is from Alabama. A link to watch him live is http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/storm-chasers/live-tracker/live-tracker.html If you ain’t getting anything in louisville, go here and watch the London snow

    http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/storm-chasers/live-tracker/live-tracker.html

  32. rolo says:

    were WXMAN and MITCH, I bet the wifes took there mouse away!!lol

    weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee, what going on bloggers!!

    today is DR DRE B DAY so lets

    LET IT RIDEEEEEEEEEEEEE

  33. BlizzardTim says:

    I FOLD !!!!….ITS A BLUFF….LOL…

  34. Joyce says:

    Who is the blogger on here from Anderson county? He is right on for Anderson and Mercer.

  35. rolo says:

    go listen to song BTIM it cheer u up, it did me after losing aty track today.

    ok serious my evening report says prcip shield with upper low moving mainly east, barring a BUILDING and filling in north there ain going be much Rain with this either. i say this it getting stronger but dont help anybody none till u get on NW SIDE,

    im seeing my 2-4 inches be WRONG, hope not though.

  36. BlizzardTim says:

    *** COME ON OVER AND LETS CHAT THE SNOWSTORM ***

    http://www.everywherechat.com/chatnow.php?defaultRoom=WeatherCenterChat

  37. waffles says:

    When’s the final call? I expect it to be different from the first couple of calls

  38. Beau Dodson says:

    I would keep an eye on that convection down south – the main low may very well follow that with an area of suppressed pressure behind it – many times large areas of rain and convection will mess up a good forecast. I would imagine the low will follow further south – along that convection.

  39. Ready4Snow says:

    If you’re faint of heart don’t look at the nam…It’s horrible

  40. james says:

    This ones over. My last holdout, the ooz nam, let us down. Bring on sunny skies and 70′s.

  41. Ready4Snow says:

    Better hope that was a hiccup and the GFS looks better..Never have seen such a magor shift from one run to the next..Looks like carolina took all our snow,,

  42. Bobt says:

    How could anyone have faith in the models when they are having trouble less than 24 hours out? Too many variables in Kentucky weather I guess. I’m about to the point whether or not I could care less if it snows at all. If you can’t watch the 6:00 news and know roughly how much snow is coming in 12 hours then the models are pretty much junk.

  43. vanessa short says:

    Is East KY out of snow to.

  44. sue Flatwoods KY says:

    i guess i will go to bed now! I guess this kinda knocks me out of the snow here in the Flatwoods/Ashland area! Thought just maybe we might get a few inches of snow this time around! : (

  45. Dara says:

    Just how much did the storms take?!?! What are we talking in Johnson?

    • Tyler says:

      it took half of what we had before with the previous run of the NAM! it it held true no one in the state of kentucky would have a chance at anything above 6-8″

  46. disappointed says:

    If I were gambling based upon meterologists predictions for snow, I would bet against them. Too many things can go wrong to lower the totals and usually in this area, that’s what always happens. Blankedy, blank thunderstorms in the south.

    • disappointed says:

      Still hoping tomorrow is more of a snow event with several inches but I guess I’ll have to see it to believe it.

  47. mitch says:

    as Beau said above Convection is taking all the fun away. That possibility has been on table for a while now. Though I do think the actual precip shield is further north than the NAM not by much, some of it is virgia as well.

  48. Beau Dodson says:

    This has been the worst winter I can remember for snow lovers – I am sure there are some comparable years – however, this one has been horrible. Looks like a big thunderstorm event at the end of the month – fun fun. I have had a couple of events that produced a dusting of snow for the 2011-2012 season, thus far. I am ready for spring :)

  49. snow princess says:

    So what does this mean for Manchester now?? (Clay Co.)????? Does this affect our possible totals or not??? thanks! :D

  50. Ready4Snow says:

    It’s a conspiracy by Obama to get more people to buy more milk,bread,driveway salt,shovel.gloves,etc to help the economy..

  51. disappointed says:

    Seems like with the new model coming out that everyone is lowering their totals on avg. by 3 inches or more.

    • disappointed says:

      Crazy, I went to the nws website in jackson and they had lowered our totals in my area to 1-3 for tomorrow and then I went back 5 minutes later and it said 4-8. Gosh, even thinking about the possibility of snow is about to drive me crazy. :)

  52. Bobt says:

    Long live the dome. lol Winter 2012 needs to move out of the way and let spring take over.

  53. WXman says:

    With the 00Z NAM now following the GFS/Euro/etc.. I think you can go ahead and put this one in the books. It’s over folks (unless you’re down in the App mountains).

    Oh well, I am now officially praying for Spring to get here. Bring on the t-storms!

  54. Mike S says:

    I had to cut my totals in half for nearly everyone. Late timing, convective issues south, daytime heating (insolation)…just had to.

    I feel like a foreman who just told his employees you’re not getting raises, your pay is getting cut in half because the work just isn’t there. Ouch….

  55. bjenks says:

    OK! I got it…Any other Northern tier blogger….AKA Louisville area…If there is a substantial snow to the south of us we can pack our coolers, sleds, and families (opptional) and head to the snowy hills of Eastern KY. I sure one of EKY fellow bloggers could show us a good sledding hill. No different than packing the cooler/boat and heading to the lake for a day/weekend. Road trip anyone….To bad this is not a Fri/Sat event or I would be serious….

    I am ready for summer and 90′s

  56. Misty Patterson says:

    blah! :-/ I got my milk and bread, some canned goods, kerosene and oil lamps ready on the BIG FAT IF lol

  57. Neil says:

    Is anyone really surprised? When I saw that there were severe storms and tornadoes in the deep south, I knew that they’d be robbing what chance we had left. 1816 had its year without a summer, 2012 will be known as the year without a winter…nothing to see here, folks…go on home!

  58. snow princess says:

    Y’all throwing in the towel already???? Umm, who said this is a bust????? Was the last run the final run, the deciding run??? Jeez, lighten up, it’s not over just yet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  59. WhoCares says:

    Now the folks at Weather.com and the rest of the U.S. can feel the same disappointment they’ve felt once or twice that we’ve felt for the past FOURTEEN YEARS.

  60. tired says:

    When will the 00z GFS run?

  61. DougT62 says:

    Oh well it was fun for a while but I am accustomed to being let down at the very last momment when it comes to weather. Seems one they put out a forecast for rain it’s always right even right down to the last drop on the other hand snow must be harder to predict

  62. kyteach74 says:

    Hey CB when’s the final call going up? I’d like to go to bed dreaming of a White Sunday….

  63. rolo says:

    well 2 men i respect right with CB WXMAN annd MIKE S are telling u guys from a PRO perspective ITS OVER.

    • BubbaG says:

      The big bust of 2012….

      Not quite the same impact as the dusting of 1998… Polar opposite meaning.

      Tried to warn people to avoid the football for several days. Hopefully, my cynicism has acted as a mental shock absorber for a letdown.

      The models suck butt.

  64. vanessa short says:

    so no snow for anyone.

  65. rolo says:

    tonite song is

    REMEMBER WHEN by ALAN JACKSON,LOLL

  66. Snow Lover says:

    I’ve never seen such a bunch of whiners in my life…Every model run is a cause for screaming or crying…Jeez grow up for once! You knew the southern storms will grab moisture, they always do! But when the NWS issues Winter Storm Warnings, all this is taken into account….we will be blasted by snow tomorrow, quit sobbing like a bunch of schoolgirls.

  67. jonb says:

    Well it was fun. Even bailey has conceded to the major bust. I’m afraid this was the last snow chance until next winter…..or later. I give up

  68. vanessa short says:

    Weather.com and accuweather still have winter storm watches up.

  69. Snow Lover says:

    Well, I’ll tell you one thing….If this is a bust, that means that trained weather folks did not figure in storms robbing moisture from us as even a novice could figure…..If they didn’t figure that in to the forecast, I will sign off on anymore Winter Storm BS forever….Surely weatherfolks figured in all the variances, right?

    • Andy Rose says:

      no model showed the storms robbing the moisture until the latest runs but as you said it happens alot so it may should have been considered

    • BubbaG says:

      Apparently not, based on met discussions.

      Met excuses 101:

      When we blow it real good, blame it on verga or rain storms ;)

  70. MikeM says:

    It’ll probably be sunny and and 60 in Woodford County. I’m done.

  71. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    In Pikeville I am still under a Winter Snow Warning.We are going to get something.

  72. Bill L says:

    wow….a major bust..PLEASE father Winter, bring us a layer for the children’s. I’ll be the first….are there any storms on the next horizon? :)

  73. ldb says:

    its okay chris B. Its that kind of winter one last big tease.then nothing. springs almost here lets plant the peas.

  74. MarkLex says:

    It seems that the heavy convection in the gulf states rob moisture 90 % of the time, a lot of times even in the summer, so I’m surprised there wasn’t more emphasis put on that.

  75. Marie says:

    Bring on spring! I’m done too.

  76. Bobt says:

    One of the biggest busted snow forecast in KY history I guess. I do remember one year when school was cancelled due to a similar forecast and it didn’t snow the first flake.

    If SE Kentucky doesn’t get 2 or 3 inches after being forecast 8-12 less than 24 hours out, then forecasters really need to sit down and figure out what went wrong and learn from it. I’m sure a whole lot of people changed travel plans based on what may be a horrible forecast. I know it’s weather, but it’s 2012 and a bunch of money is spent on technology supposedly to help make better predictions.

    • Andy Rose says:

      That should go for the entire winter as it was a bust not just 1 storm and not just for us but tje entire eastern part f the country

  77. waffles says:

    Itll be funny to see what the METS say on the news tomorrow night

  78. jonb says:

    Gfs trended back north……not ;)

  79. Jared says:

    Updated NWS forecast for me, still looks good

    Sunday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 7am. Temperature falling to around 28 by 5pm. Northeast wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

    Sunday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 14. North wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

  80. Beth says:

    I’m so thankful that it will be a BUST, I prayed hard for a bust. I didn’t want a big wet snow, wets snows bring power outages and the older folks don’t do well without electricity. No fun living without power and it’s dangersous for older people, especially for those you need oxygen… Have a great night and a blessed sunday! Bring on the Spring please. : ) : ) : )

  81. Tyler says:

    Wow, I can’t believe that professional weather models can’t even get things together 12hrs before a potential storm………I’m very interested to see what CB has to say about this!

  82. Darlin says:

    Forcasters still giving snow on 11:00 news

  83. vanessa short says:

    lexington news still say southeast 4-7

  84. jonb says:

    The only thing that could make this better would be for the gfs to trend north. Should be out soon shouldn’t it?

  85. Rachel says:

    My call… we get an inch of rain… and then a “dusting” of snow – the literal type (not the ’98 version). This has been the winter of the rain. We’ve had what, three or four 1+ inch rain storms since January…. the equivalent of 30-40 inches of snow… if this were actually winter :/

  86. Snow Lover says:

    If you think about it, the only time we ever get a big snow anymore is when an East Coast storm throws moisture back to the west….These southern storms are always robbed by moisture from Tstorms in the South….You would think that trained meterologists could see the same thing that novice weather watchers can see. The NWS should be ashamed at missing something so obvious.

    • Every Model Does Not Tell a Story says:

      You seem to be right. It seems only in Jan. when temps are in the 40s in the deep south that this is not an issue.

  87. BubbaG says:

    For perspective, not all the moisture will be robbed, but enough to make this not the monster advertised. More like an angry gerbil :)

  88. jonb says:

    Nws and all tv mets still giving 4-8 inches as of now. Hmmmmmm

  89. Every Model Does Not Tell a Story says:

    Lets talk about the snow chances the gfs is showing 171 hrs out on the 18z run.

  90. rolo says:

    for those who say moisture not coming UR BAD WRONG Northern end buildiong more and SE KY going get in on moisture, NOW when will it changhe over big key.

    I still saay 2-4 inches, but hey u never know once gets in here what can happen, storm could slow, BACK BUILD ETC so if u wanting a ok snow in SOUTHERN AND SE patrts it not over yet.

  91. jason says:

    A winter blast moving into Kentucky will bring falling temperatures and snow, prompting WKYT’s team of meteorologists to declare a “27 First Alert Severe Weather Day” for Sunday.

    While the state experienced mild temperatures on Saturday, WKYT meteorologist Kari Hall is keeping an eye on a surface low moving into our area from the Gulf states.

    “It will bring our next winter storm as some cool air invades from the north,” said Hall. “Both of these systems will meet up over the Commonwealth on Sunday and bring the biggest snow potential we’ve had so far this winter.”

    Hall expects the combination of cold air and precipitation to be a larger problem in southern and eastern Kentucky where the National Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings.

    “South of I-64 there looks to be rain moving in early Sunday and as temperatures drop it changes to snow,” said Hall. “Then snow bands will move northward reaching Lexington and areas to the north later in the day.”

    Hall expects the heaviest snow will be from Madison County and southward where 4 to 6 inches are expected. In the mountains, there could be 8 or more inches by Sunday night.

    In the Lexington metro area and north of I-64, Hall expects the potential of 1 to 4 inches.

    “Road conditions will get hazardous through the day on Sunday and will be the worst early Monday morning as temperatures drop to around 20 degrees,” said Hall.

  92. Mark says:

    Love your info Chris…..but would love to get a last call before bed….

  93. Every Model Does Not Tell a Story says:

    In my heart I thought Louisville could receive a substantial snow,even though my mid said no way. But I never thought it would be a major bust for everybody else. A crushing defeat for long , mid range models ,and every other tool that is used in the climate field.

  94. Char says:

    They just said on the Weather Channel that people in KY and VA are saying this is a bust. But he said the second system from the S.W. will
    bring out snow. He says we are still going to get it.

  95. Neil says:

    One thing I have learned over the last 14 winters around here is not to get excited about snow that isn’t on the ground, ‘cuz you’ll be in for A LOT of disappointment. Mr. Heat Mizer has an inexhaustible arsenal of weapons, and he ain’t afraid to use every one!

  96. Char says:

    Actually I don’t see what would keep any snow from melting when it hits as warm as it’s been.

  97. Char says:

    I keep watching for Chris’s update.

  98. JJFP says:

    New around here, but have a question… in this case when you have such a drastic change of events in the last 24hrs. or less before a weather event, what is the use in forecasting? In this case everyone would have been just as well off waking up tomorrow and going on with life as is. As is I spent extra money for groceries, candles, batteries, etc. to deal with this “eminent” storm. While I’ll be ok without that money, it does hurt. I don’t care if snows or not, but I due to my location I don’t have the luxury to wait till the last second to gather the items needed to get by w/out power for an extended time. I realize that things would be MUCH worse if there was a heavy snowfall that knocked out power, but forecasting a major event that doesn’t come to fruition isn’t exactly harmless either. Not speaking to directly to CB, but generally to all mets.

    • Every Model Does Not Tell a Story says:

      Unfortunately,all the people in the field can only use the info that is gather from all the sources. It only takes a slight variation in the climate to throw the whole forecast off. Chances always favor a prepare man or woman. You never know you might need those batteries this spring or summer. Predicting accumulating snow is one of the hardest thing to do in meterology according to the mets.

  99. DLT says:

    Watching the last 24 hours, it appears that the jet stream will pull the moisture developing over east TX far northward. Appears that Chris was closer than most anyone, but I am guessing upwards of 6″ in central KY and a larger amount than predicted west of I-64, possible up to 2″ as far west as Louisville.

    Just an educated guess, mind you.

    • BubbaG says:

      Have you missed the discussion about storms draining some of the moisture? Mets have been dialing down their totals, but less so for far east and south KY.

      I suppose verga will be the next line of met defense.

      • CGM40 says:

        Hush BubbaG, I will take DLT’s forecast and run with it :)

      • DLT says:

        I would have agreed before that system started gaining over TX. Still looks to be a weather maker.

      • JJFP says:

        I’m in SE/ Central KY, and I’ve heard nothing until the last few hours that this storm is not what it was made out to be. Guess this is one of those times that being prepared is a bad trait to have. If anyone has suggestions as to where to go to find the info to avoid this in future I’m all ears, or could point me to the posters on this site that know what’s going on I’d appreciate it. Just frustrating trying to figure out what information to take seriously and what to ignore when there is nothing that matches up from site to site, model to model, met to met, poster to poster.

  100. vanessa short says:

    in knott in it to.

  101. c-BIV says:

    they northern edge of precip band is expanding north…and the low is not turning fuel east. it is ENE …just saying.

    • BubbaG says:

      Fine with me! I am just having fun anyway. In a way, this churn is better than an event. Kind of sick, I admit.

    • Every Model Does Not Tell a Story says:

      Only if the temps were not in the upper 30s in Lex. This could be great if snow ratio was higher.Although I am pleasantly surprise how much the system has moved north since I last look at it about an hour ago. There is always a chance it might over perform.

  102. rolo says:

    DLT ur on to somrthing my fiend bizzness is PICKING UP!!! it aint over yet folks.

    get the coffee poty going mamma, ole roloo nowcasting thru the storm SNOW or no SNOW im casting.

    syastem streaming moisture NE

    u people see that in panhandle mositure that was NEVER GOING TO BE WHAT WE GOT ANYTHING FROM, we are wanting the backside, NW/WEST of the upper low.

    not change my totals from morning, but just saying S/SE KY going get the moisture, are we going get a CHANGE OVER at right time???

  103. Misty Patterson says:

    for 40701 zip:

    Overnight: Rain likely, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Northeast wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

    Sunday: Rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 9am, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet between 9am and 10am, then snow after 10am. Temperature falling to around 29 by 5pm. North northeast wind between 11 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

    Sunday Night: Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 16. North wind between 7 and 10 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

    yeah 4-8″?

  104. rolo says:

    BUT DLT moisture dont mean SQUAT if it rain, just sayin but u got to have moisture before u walk.lol

    that said ur drunk it not going that ferr north sir.

  105. Misty Patterson says:

    Any other possible snowy scenarios in the not so distant future????

    • Misty Patterson says:

      Upcoming weekend forecast so far…

      Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

      Friday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

      Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

      Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

  106. Allen on Whitehall says:

    old Rolo hanging right in there and it way after midnite. Keep me updated Rolo.

  107. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Sledding at my house tommorow everyone is invited lol!!!!!!! Rolo you bring the Hooch and what are you doing up soooo late?????? If nothing else we can sled in the Rain lol!!!!!!!!!

  108. jonb says:

    Moisture does look decent. Interesting

  109. Snolurvr says:

    I just looked at the national radar to try to understand the direction and phasing and all of the things the mets have been talking about the past several days. I’m sure the radar doesn’t really show the true picture in terms of atmosphere. BUT…were the two systems that are showing up supposed to have met at some point? And why does it look the system coming out of Texas is heading toward all of Kentucky when the computer models have recently turned out a forecast with the top half of the state not getting any precipitation? Is the moisture from that Texas system going to disappear before it gets to Kentucky? Is it going to change direction and go across only the southern half of the state? I’m confused. And obviously I’m in the northern half of the state. And I want snow. And I’m going to bed and hoping to wake up to big, wet snowflakes. Night all. Thanks for helping make this a fun rollercoaster.

  110. Beau Dodson says:

    Most models have shown the south track for several day. The north track was always the outlier. There were lots of mets talking about the moisture down south impacting the track. None of this is a surprise. Morning convection was a red flag. Majority of models showed a southern track but were ignored. There are five or six good models to follow and combine with actual surface obs. To say that Mets didn’t see all of this is false.

  111. Cam the Man says:

    It ain’t lookin’ good for KY with the RUC and HRRR. One of the biggest busts in SE KY history comin’ right up…

    • Char says:

      It’s o.k. with me if it’s a bust. I just wish I handn’t changed my travel plans for Monday. Oh well. It couldn’t be helped.

  112. Char says:

    Chris must be asleep. Chris, wake up! Wake up! Oh, he has to work tomorrow. Stay asleep! Stay asleep! :)

  113. bjenks says:

    Good night…the party is over….see you next winter…..

    Come on severe weather and summer

    Mild winter was great. No snow sucks!!!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>