Good Tuesday, everyone. We are rolling into a much colder and busier than normal pattern for the final week of October. This chilly setup will also carry us into early November as we have the potential for an early season winter looking systems across the region.
Colder air is surging into the region from northwest to southeast today. With the gusty northwesterly wind, we can get in on a few showers…
Temps will be in the 50s into early afternoon then drop into the upper 40s by late this afternoon into the early evening. Temps by Wednesday morning will then drop into the 30s.
A weak system will dive in here Wednesday night and has a sneaky look to it. This can produce a few showers, with an outside chance at a snowflake showing up. The NAM is showing some spots of blue by Wednesday evening…
Check out what it’s doing around Big Black Mountain in southeastern Kentucky…
That seems a little aggressive, but it’s not a total stretch.
The NAM is now going with some 20s scattered across the state by Thursday morning…
Thursday is a very windy day as temps rebound into the 60s. Gusty winds continue into Friday as a strong cold front rolls our way. The setup for the weekend is an interesting one with a deep trough diving into our region, as a tropical low works northward from the Caribbean. How much of an interaction do we get between these two?
The GFS is now seeing more and more of these two hooking up…
Taken verbatim, that run gives us a windy, cold rain on Saturday as temps crash from west to east. It then slows the rains up across the east as our storm passes just to our east. It would also imply some wraparound snowflake action for Sunday.
Watch for the GFS to trend a little farther west with that.
The Canadian model has a similar way of thinking, but produces a much bigger storm…
That’s actually one heck of a setup for the weekend. Can it spit out a few flakes in our region? Yes. Will it? That remains to be seen, but it’s an interesting look. One thing we know for sure about the weekend is… it looks ugly. Cold temps, rainy skies and gusty winds will make for some nasty.
Once that system moves away, there’s another surge of cold air coming in behind that around Halloween. The Canadian Model is showing a winter looking setup to introduce it…
With another recurving west Pacific typhoon over the next week, expect these cold shots to keep coming at us through the first few weeks of November. The CFS has finally caught up to the teleconnections. Here’s what it’s now showing for the first week of November…
I will update things later today and will also be back on WKYT starting at 4.
Make it a great day and take care.
All the years of reading this blog, this is the first year I recall Chris mentioning anything about Pacific Typhoons and our weather patterns. But it does make sense. I mean, I know everything is connected in the weather world – just never heard Chris mention this specific thing before. If he has in the past I just must have missed it.
He has actually mentioned a lot in past winters.
Yeah actually Chris has talked about this many times in the past when it has happened. This particular teleconnection with a recurving typhoon off the coast of Japan/Western Pacific is a strong one. From the times I’ve started noticing this teleconnection after it was mentioned to me several years ago, it almost always comes to fruition (the US gets hit with a deep trough.) From the one’s I have heard, it’s for sure one of the strongest, more reliable connections.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/17/rare-5000-mile-long-river-in-the-sky-to-bombard-pacific-northwest-with-heavy-rain-and-snow/
http://mashable.com/2017/10/24/former-super-typhoon-prowls-bering-sea-hurricane-winds/#TzBGXsLM.aqG
Thelma Lou is loving this pattern, but I have a feeling that if it persists for a few weeks it will not bode will for winter lovers. At some point the pancake always gets flipped over.
Looks like we’re in for a lot of fun this weekend! KMEA State Marching Band Semifinals and Finals Saturday! Bundle up and bring it on!
()early cold followed by rain and large temp swings constantly
()Ridiculously warm X-mas and New Years preceded by weak sauce hype about the chance of white x-mas
()CB being disappointed by the outcome and wanting an early spring in early to mid Feb.
()some ice storm scares along the way to keep us interested
()one big snow to feed the hype machine and the “I told you haterz it would be epic winter” clapback after blog comments get dark and grumpy due to lack of snow or missed snows
Did I miss anything? Feel free to add your own. Lord, we could make a drinking bingo game out of this for the upcoming season.
You must love throwing in the “hype” accusation, false as it is.
Has CB posted his winter outlook yet?
Bubba you know the drill. You’re a bout a month early.
Nah, he said He said he was gonna do one this month
Link?
Go home GFS, you`re drunk.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017102418&fh=222
I don’t care who you are…that’s funny right there.