A Fun Start To The Weekend

Good Thursday, folks. We are rolling toward a wild start to the final weekend of October. A strong cold front will blow across Kentucky and may give parts of the state a tiny taste of winter. Beyond that, the pattern continues to look colder than normal and more active than normal into early November.

There’s a lot to break down with the forecast, so let’s get after it.

Our cold front arrives into western Kentucky on Friday with a huge temperature swing. We may see a 30+ degree temperature gradient from west to east. Check out the 5pm numbers from the NAM…

Wow!

Winds may gust from 30-40mph at times as this front blows across the Commonwealth.  Rain breaks out quickly and will be heavy at times across the west and central parts of the state into Friday evening.

The cold air tries to catch the back edge of the rain shield Friday night into Saturday morning. Here are the Saturday morning temps on the NAM…

Can we switch some of the rain over to snow in the west and central parts of the state by Saturday morning? The NAM continues to say YES…

The GFS continues to say this is mainly rain, with just a small flake chance on the back edge of the rain shield early Saturday…

The RPM Model is showing some flake action into parts of central and northern Kentucky into Indiana and Ohio…

Moral of the story: There’s a chance for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the rain across parts of western and central Kentucky Friday night and early Saturday. The only reason this is noteworthy is because it’s still October.

The rain and precipitation shield continues to work eastward into Saturday afternoon. Temps behind this will hit the 40-45 degree range, with wind chills in the 30s. The rain may be slow to exit eastern Kentucky Saturday evening, and the NAM has another switchover by Saturday night…

Again, I’m not sold on this NAM solution as it does appear to be too aggressive with the cold. Still, it’s a good VERY early season test of the models. Nothing wrong with a good model fight. 🙂

Sunday is another cold day with highs in the 40s and wind chills making it feel colder than that. Leftover showers may be noted in the east with another flake chance in the high ground.

Another cold shot comes our way on Halloween and may bring some rain with it into day one of November…

In the medium range, the models are gonna struggle in a huge way. They always do during a seasonal transition, but that’s being enhanced by such a busy setup across the northern hemisphere.

I’ll be back with updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.


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4 Responses to A Fun Start To The Weekend

  1. bgbecky says:

    “The only reason this is noteworthy is because it’s still October.”

    Crazy Kentucky weather!

  2. Mike S says:

    I find this hard to believe but weather records show the last measurable (>=0.1″) October snowfall for Lexington was 45 years ago, in 1972 on the 19th.
    Even the heat island capital here in Louisville has recorded 2 instances since 1972, including the last time 24 years ago when 2.4″ fell on the 30th of October.

  3. Terry says:

    Yeah 1993 Halloween…I doubt Lexington missed that as it snowed region wide.

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