A Chilly Halloween

Good Tuesday and Happy Halloween. It’s a seasonally cold Halloween taking shape across the bluegrass state, but the focus of the forecast is on a very wet pattern taking shape. The transition from cold to wet may even mean a bit of a mix early Wednesday.

Highs out there today are generally in the 40s, with some low 50s in the south and west. Temps drop into the upper 30s by the time trick or treating is wrapping up, so wrap up the smaller kiddos. Things are dry, so we have that going for us. 🙂

Rain quickly increases later tonight into Wednesday, and it may start as a touch of frozen precipitation across the northern half of the state…

The best chances is across the far north, where a few hours of wintry mix will be possible. Chilly showers will then take over with temps in the 40s during the afternoon. Those numbers will actually climb all night and be in the middle and upper 50s by Thursday morning.

Mild temps settle in through the weekend and early next week, but it comes with a price. Rounds of showers and storms look to be common. Hefty rain totals are a good bet over the next week…

Once into the middle of next week, things continue to trend much colder…

Looking longer range at the precipitation chances, this is likely to be a VERY active fall and winter in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This includes both rain and snow.

If we look at strictly liquid precipitation through the next 6 weeks, we find the seasonal models going crazy across Kentucky. The long range European Ensembles through the middle of December is loaded with precipitation…

The CFS is nearly identical…

In addition to early season snow chances, this type of pattern would argue for some cold season flood issues to develop.

I will update things later today, so check back. Happy Halloween and take care.


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16 Responses to A Chilly Halloween

  1. TennMark says:

    Thanks, Mr Bailey.

    As we know, many other parts of the country are also having early snow/sleet and cold. The Dallas/Ft Worth area had some sleet late last week (not their earliest sleet, but for comparison Oct 30 1993 is their earliest trace snow). Waco TX just experienced one of their earliest freezes on record.

    I find winter events in the deep south to be particularly interesting. A good snow in Albany NY, Columbus OH or Augusta ME can be somewhat ho hum. A snow in Albany GA, Columbus GA, Augusta GA….that can really get one’s attention! Yes, all three Georgia cities and other southern locations were shut down by heavy snow in Feb 1973 even if the snow cover didn’t last long.

  2. LD says:

    I don’t know about Lexington specifically, but Berea and surrounding areas had snows of ~.75″ and ~1.5″ this decade during October. That discussion the other day about snow in October and whether it happened or not and how long ago was befuddling to say the least. If you read this blog daily during Oct through April each year, you couldn’t have missed those discussion as snow results are memorable in October.

    Nice comment section the other day!

    Hamlin’s choices in skirts are questionable but he’s still a literal life saver.
    https://i.imgur.com/YR6RkOc.jpg

  3. BubbaG says:

    Hopefully the snow to salt ratio is more on the snow side. Last winter was about 10:1 on the salt side.

  4. Schroeder says:

    In order to receive a major snowstorm in our area of the Ohio River valley, systems have to come together over the southern plains and move into the western Gulf of Mexico, collect moisture and move northeast through eastern Tennessee slowly. Cold Arctic air in the negative phase ( Polar jet stream ) and warm moist air in the positive phase ( subtropical jet stream ) have to be present for this event to occur. With the forecast for a weak La nina this coming winter, we will most likely receive more rain than snow or ice. If we have a developing weak El nino later in January which is still possible we may experience a cold and snowy February and March, lets hope so.

  5. Jeff Kidd says:

    Thanks to Schroeder I don’t have to read the blog anymore. He knows it all!! Is there anywhere I can subscribe to your brilliant weather predictions????

  6. Schroeder says:

    After looking at current water vapor loop, I have determined that the cold fronts of here lately are originating from the north Pacific rather than the Arctic. These fronts carry the characteristic of being fast moving and short live. We have now received our first freeze of the Autumn season, and now we can look forward to Indian Summer this weekend with temperatures in the low 70’s and hopefully sunshine.

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