Friday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. Thunderstorms rumbled across the state this morning and we have more on the way in the coming days. By Sunday night and early Monday, we will need to be on guard for a few strong or severe storms, with another heavy rain maker following that up, as we transition to colder.

Our cold front is slowing down on top of us right now and will return northward as a warm front. A scattered shower or storm is possible out there this evening…

Scattered storms will be noted on Saturday as temps spike into the upper 60s and low 70s for many areas. Winds will be gusty and those winds will continue to increase on Sunday. This is going to be a very active weather day across the Ohio Valley.

For some time now, I’ve mentioned my analog set pointing toward a fall severe weather outbreak in the Ohio Valley. Well, here it comes…

That could be a nasty outbreak just to our north, and I’m increasingly concerned we could get in on some severe weather Sunday night. We may end up seeing all modes of severe weather north of us Sunday afternoon, with that all coming together into a strong to severe line of storms. That line should move in here Sunday night into Monday morning…

The Canadian

The GFS…

That front stalls out on top of us, allowing heavy rain to develop Monday night into Tuesday…

Much colder air then sinks in behind this for the rest of the week. The GFS Ensembles keep trending colder…

The European Ensembles are also much colder…

This is a pattern where the cold shots will likely keep showing stronger as we get closer. I’ve mentioned how there is a ton of cold air available and that’s something we have NOT seen the past few winters, and have not seen this early in the season since back in 2010.

The Canadian Model just went nuclear with the cold late next weekend…

It also does this…

That’s probably not happening next weekend, but it’s something I think can happen before this month is over.

Speaking of later this month, I will share some new seasonal data for the rest of November into December. It matches my analogs and overall thought process. 😉

Enjoy the evening and take care.


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3 Responses to Friday Evening Update

  1. Codfeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Hoping to make it out of Ohio and back home Sunday ahead of the storms. We will see. Have a great Friday night everyone.

  2. Rickie H says:

    Now what was the analog years again? 2009 and 2013?

  3. Scott Browning says:

    Good Lord on that Canadian temp model.

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