Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night

Good Saturday, everyone. We are dealing with a fairly warm and windy weekend, but it’s all eyes on a big temperature drop into next week. To get to that point, we have a wet and stormy price to pay, and some of those storms may be strong Sunday night.

Let’s begin with the mild air we have out there today. A warm front is lifting northward through the state, allowing temps to take off yet again. Highs range from the mid 60s in the north to the low 70s in the south with the chance for a few showers and storms to go up…

Temperatures for Sunday will be pretty darn warm with many thermometers deep into the 70s. Winds will also be very gusty and could reach 30mph or greater. I can’t rule out a scattered storm, with much of the daytime action will be just to our north and west. That’s where a big time severe weather outbreak is likely…

All modes of severe weather are possible in those areas. All of that will likely congeal into a line of strong to severe storms that races into Kentucky Sunday night and Monday morning…

Damaging winds would be the primary player in that setup.

The front then stalls out across southern Kentucky, allowing for waves of low pressure to develop and roll eastward. This can deliver rounds of rain through the middle of the week, with the potential to carry us into late week…

Much colder air takes control for the middle and end of the week.

We should have a bit of a bounce back to follow that up, but it’s interesting to watch the Canadian throw a big storm system into the Midwest and Great Lakes, unleashing heart of winter temps behind it…

Looking farther down the road, the long range European Ensembles are showing a typical back and forth temperature pattern for the rest of November, but is now going all in on a colder setup for early December…

That’s actually a very cold look for an Ensembles mean from this far out.

The model continues to show a super active precipitation setup across our region through the first week and change of December…

With that much precipitation, it would be safe to assume the ensembles are picking up on some snow threats, right? You are correct…

This matches a lot of my analog years going forward. These are the same analogs that have been on fire from the tropical impacts we have had, to our recent October snow, to the upcoming severe threat. Will they keep it rolling into the winter months? We will soon find out.

By the way, the winter forecast comes out November 16th, so spread the word. I will keep dropping some nuggets leading up to it.

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.


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14 Responses to Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night

  1. MarkLex says:

    Looking at past data, we have so many more years (especially since I’ve moved here in 96) that have above normal annual precip than we do below. I think just a handful of years have been below normal –

  2. Mike S says:

    I know the severe setup is there, but my usually reliable top 15 analogs are not very bullish on widespread severe weather, best chance mainly north of Kentucky and scattered reports at best. Perhaps the best instability will begin to wane during the nighttime hours? But heavy rain a good bet for many. This time tomorrow will tell whether any other analogs will support severe wx.

    • Snowteach says:

      Mike do you know of any good blogs or twitter people that cover WV weather exclusively? Thanks in advance!

      • Mike S says:

        Sorry. I only follow a few weather blogs. Besides this one and a couple in my local area of Louisville, I do like to read legendary meteorologist Tom Skilling at WGN in Chicago. I do recommend NWS Twitter stream, however, which does include several WV weather offices.

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. We are in North Central Ohio visiting our daughter this weekend. I hope we can get back to Kentucky ahead of that severe weather! Looks like today is going to be s great day for football. Hope everyone’s favorite team wins. Have a great Saturday all, and go CATS!!

  4. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Cant wait for the winter forecast will spread the word!!!

  5. Cold Rain says:

    Big hail event also possible according to the spc..Northern border’s may need to keep an eye out because some model’s were trending a little south..

  6. LD says:

    “fairly warm”. Yeah, when you’re in NOV and the low temp is significantly higher than the normal high temp, you know nothing special about that. If it were reversed it would be hyped to death.

    So why did the normal temps data disappear from the WKYT main weather page earlier this year? Sure, anyone can find it elsewhere but it was an odd choice to do out of the blue. Oh, I mean, I’m sure I can guess as to the reason but I’d rather see something official.

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      *yawn

    • Chris Bailey says:

      You are about 2 seconds from posting your last comment here. You’re suggesting I control the wkyt news page??? Are you serious? You want banned? Keep it up

    • Chris Bailey says:

      Your commenting privileges have been revoked. I have had mid and upper 70s in my forecast for the past week and talked extensively about the warmth. Sorry that severe weather takes the top spot on my priority list. If you want to post again here, email me and we will see what happens. Otherwise… peace out.

  7. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger in Dodger back! He’s excited about long range prospects for cold but also been around long enough to know those maps will change in a heartbeat. Moral of the story -> Don’t get too excited until you see the snow falling in your backyard! Global warming is real! This is Rodger in Dodger.

  8. Angela Kidder says:

    Thanks Chris…I enjoy looking at your weather outlooks especially those long range… keep up the good work

  9. Jimbo says:

    If November is going to be an up and down temperature battle. I am betting there will be 4 up (warm) days for every 1 down (cold) day. The warm waves far outpace the cold snaps.

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