Winter Temps Show Up

Good Friday, everyone. We are on the southern edge of an early season arctic air mass as we close out the work week. This is bringing frigid wind chills our way into early Saturday, with more chilly weather through the weekend. Beyond that, it’s a very interesting setup taking shape in the run up to Thanksgiving.

Highs today will range from 40-45 in the west and far south, to the mid and upper 30s for much of central and eastern parts of the state. Wind chill numbers will be much colder.

Lows by Saturday morning are deep into the 20s with a wind chill down into the teens for most of the region. Ouch. Clouds increase from west to east during the day and that keeps afternoon temps in check…

Those clouds will then produce a few showers into Sunday. That will keep the temps on the chilly side, especially across the central and east…

Seasonal temps will greet us as we head into another work week, but another cold front shows up by Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will bring more showers in here…

The lead up to Thanksgiving week continues to look very active, with a wintry look to it. Watch these deep troughs swinging through here as some major blocking develops in Canada…

That’s a lot of cold air coming into the eastern half of the country, potentially setting the stage for some early season winter events.

Speaking of winter, the snow cover across North America and the Northern Hemisphere is very impressive…

This setup is night and day different from last year, when snow cover across North America was about as wimpy as ever for this time of year.

Why is this important going forward? Because that expanding snowpack can really help create and sustain some major cold shots deep into the United states. The current shot is exhibit A. It’s not overly impressive in terms of the pressures, but it’s already breaking record low temps in the north and will do so into the northeast this weekend.

For months, I’ve said the ingredients are there for a fast-starting winter. We already had snow in October and I will be surprised if we don’t see snow before November ends. This could catapult us into a front loaded winter full of fun and games.

I will update things later today. Take care.


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19 Responses to Winter Temps Show Up

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    How do you think the weak La Niña affects things?

  2. Sam says:

    I like, I like, I like!

  3. JJTeach says:

    It’s been quite a while since we’ve had a front loaded winter. I’m excited!

  4. Rich says:

    Let’s hope for significant amount of snow this winter. Last year was a dud. (BOTS) It appears this may be an exciting winter for a snow lover.

  5. Angie McGlone says:

    when are you doing your winter forecast predictions? Always enjoyed your blog.

  6. Machell says:

    Sounds good to this snow lover. I’ll take it!

  7. Jeff Kidd says:

    There has been plenty of winters where a La Nina didn’t really affect our over all winter pattern. Some news/meteorologists are just lazy and put out a forecast of a basic La Nina winter. Thankfully Chris knows better and checks all the analog years with other factors thrown in to make a more accurate and thought out forecast. For example we have had very cold and snowy winters with a La Nina, but with a -QBO like we have now and will have this winter. So if someone is saying we are going to be warm and dry this winter it just means they are using a typical La Nina winter forecast and not factoring in anything else.

    • Terry says:

      Exactly….TWC for instance…..very annoying and the same type of forecasts are hammered into people’s minds with El Nino winter too!

      • TennMark says:

        Sometimes one can be pleasantly surprised by TWC.

        This morning as I was getting ready to head to the office, TWC presented a comparison of La Nina episodes since about the 1950s(?) and while somewhat more La Ninas may have relatively warm dry winters, there were some La Ninas that were very cold. Some were very dry, others wet/snowy. Seems TWC still thinks this winter in general will be warmer and dryer more like a traditional La Nina, but guess time will tell.

        Just like no two La Ninas are the same, likewise no two El Ninos (and more neutral condition episodes). How strong or weak is the episode? Is one side of the Pacific Ocean more abnormal than the other side, or is virtually all the Pacific along the equator affected? Of course, what about the other factors besides La Nina/El Nino? Yep, weather is never boring! 😉

        • Jeff Kidd says:

          Yep and it looks like the -QBO could play a big factor this winter and something we didn’t have the past two winters. A lot of good La Nina winters have come with a -QBO and this winter it looks to be very very negative. Although the La Nina might disappear by January and go neutral to maybe a weak El Nino. I’m hoping the -QBO helps us out and the last time it was negative for us in winter was January and February of 2015 and we had some bitter cold days with snow and ice.

  8. Rickie H says:

    Excited for all the fun….. thank you Chris Bailey!

  9. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger likes all this but the proof is in the pudding! He’s learned to not get excited until the flakes actually fly. This is Rodger in Dodger

  10. Schroeder says:

    Years with a weak El nino , such as 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78 and 2014-15. All of these winters were different. 1969-70 was the snowiest, 1976-77 was the coldest, 1977-78 was both frigid and snowy ( year of the blizzard ) and 2014-15 was a late winter with two major snowstorms, this was listed as a strong El nino. Two factors that were present in all of the above years a subtropical jet stream in the positive phase and the polar jet in the negative phase. What is missing this Autumn 2017 is the subtropical jet in the positive phase.

    • Schroeder says:

      2014-15 was a weak El nino and 2015-16 was a strong El nino. The 2015-16 was also a late winter with two major snowstorms. I stand corrected.

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