Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a spring-like next few days ahead of us and that will be followed by a little blast of winter to start the coming weekend. That means we have thunderstorms and snow showers all rolled into one little neat forecast.
Today looks to be a rather windy and mild day with a mix of sun and clouds. Temps will run well into the 50s and may flirt with 60 before all is said and done. A couple of showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening… especially across the south and east. The Storm Prediction Center has even been talking about the possibility of a severe storm trying to fire up across the Tennessee Valley. Here’s the area they are keeping an eye on today…
The setup for Thursday is one that has a better shot at creating some strong or severe thunderstorms. Temps will really warm up with mid and upper 60s common. Some areas may touch 70 degrees before the day is over. Winds will be rather gusty as a storm system works into the Ohio Valley. Moist and unstable air will be drawn northward out ahead of this low pressure and that should be the spark to get some storms to pop.
The NAM model is showing this unstable air coming fairly far north into our region. Take a look at the Lifted Index forecast…
Negative numbers this time of year usually spell thunderstorms and can often help some stronger boomers to develop. We will keep an eye on this for late Thursday into Thursday night.
Much colder air them pushes in on Friday with temps falling into the 30s during the afternoon. This cold air will likely be accompanied by some snow showers and flurries and the GFS is even showing the potential for some sticking snow Friday night…
Nothing like thunderstorms and snow within a 24 hour period!
The pattern into next week is one that will feature a couple more big storms rolling their way across the country and those will need to be watched to see what kind of weather they bring our way.
Have a great Wednesday and take care.
I am excited to finally wear shorts again! Hoping for a big severe weather outbreak soon, I wanna chase! Get to feelin better Chris, and thanks!
BOTS!
(Bring On The Storms)
Bring on the snow 😉
Yea. We’re never really in any short supply of storms. We get those year round it seems. I’d rather have snow for now, storms later.
I wonder if the nam is too far north with the instability just like it was with the snowstorm last week.
I posted this article last evening on old thread just as CB started a new one, so perhaps few saw it:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/abovenormal-tornadoes-expected-1/61631
Interesting La Niña now forecast to be neutral by April, compared to earlier predictions it could last into summer. The pros can give their thoughts, but wonder if La Niña’s early decline may still be too late to negate KY/TN severe wx much this spring – March/April/May are the peak months. Just like when taking the kettle off the stove, it still boils for a while longer.
Of course, La Ni̱a/El Ni̱o is just one of many factors. Gulf waters are still very very warm and juicy. The cold snap not long ago made it well into the Gulf Рtemps dropped to upper teens in Florida panhandle Рbut the cold was perhaps too brief to cool the waters much.
Anyway, La Niña only tends to have a general tendency to produce larger, longer track tornadoes due to enhanced jet stream patterns. Otherwise, not a big difference in tornado numbers during La Niña and El Niño years. As has been pointed out, there have been big outbreaks during non-La Niña years.
Last year was a carbon copy. La Nina was “predicted” to go neutral by Summer, then return as a weak La Nina by Fall or Winter. So this sounds like the same song and dance to me.
I’ll say it again, March-May is going to be WILD for the eastern half of the U.S. You can already see the GFS run to run insistence on blowing up multiple storms in the Plains through mid-month.
Unless the rain and clouds get out of SE Kentucky shortly, then we will be lucky to hit 50 today. I would just about trade Sunday’s snow for a few dry days right now. All winter has been a washout. Would be nice to see a week of sunshine to clean up some vehicles in desperate need of a washing. I’ve had enough of rain.
No one said anything about snow today did they??? Haha. Up on Black Mountain right and its snowing at a pretty good clip. Maybe we can some thunder in this and I can get a shot of some thundersnow.
Thanks, Chris. Hope you are feeling better. Let the dog out this morning, and the air was full of bird song. Buds are a poppin’. Looks like Spring is not too far away. Just wish the weather would make up its mind one way or the other. Have a great day!
it feels like a storm to come spring day outside to me for some reason. i got my yaesu all charged up, and ready to report in any kind of damage if we get any storm damage this evening or tomorrow evening.
wxman, what is your call sign, if you dont mind me asking here on the blog. mine is KG4UKF . theys another ham that posts on here , shawn, who call sign is KG4KBU. hes a good guy, loves weather of all kinds. one of the first ham friends i met, and made the hobby a fun to place to be part of when i first got my license back in 02.
Calm before the storms?