Good afternoon, gang. My time is short, but the weather is super busy, so let’s get after it! 🙂

Today’s rains are blowing across the state and are packing a gusty punch. A few areas may see winds hit 30mph at times. The rains continue into the evening across much of the region…

The 12z model runs are trending back toward a stronger system for Friday night and Saturday. They have slowed the arrival of this storm down just a bit, with the bulk of the showers and storms arriving Saturday…

We will still need to watch for a line of low-topped strong to severe storms sweeping across the state on Saturday. With our without storms, winds can gusty between 40 and 50mph at times.

Colder air pours in Saturday night into Sunday with the chance for a few flakes to fly, especially in the east.

Canadian

GFS Ensembles

I’m not sure I’ve seen the operational models as confused as they are right now. They have ZERO run to run consistency, and are sometimes showing massive swings. The GFS last night lost much of the Thanksgiving week and weekend cold. A few hours later, the same exact model shows this…

Until the operational models show some consistent solutions, they are of little help.

In the meantime, the Ensembles keep doing their steady thing…

I will update things again later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.