Good Thursday to one and all. We continue to trackย a strong weekend storm system rolling toward the region. This is a system we have talked about for more than a week now, and it’s likely to bring a little bit of everything with it. From strong storms and high winds to the chance for a few flurries, we have a lot to track.

As we get closer to the storm, we are finding the models going back toward a stronger area of low pressure heading into the Great Lakes. That drags a cold front across the state on Saturday, bringing some wild weather with it.

A line of low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely sweep through here with the potential for a few strong storms…

With or without the strong storms, wind gusts of 40mph to 50mph are going to crank during this time…

If you’re thinking of putting up those Christmas lights or displays, you may want to hold off a day or so. ๐Ÿ™‚

Temps ahead of the front spike into the 60s, then drop through the 40s and 30s directly behind the front. The cold air tries to catch the back edge of the line of showers, causing a few flakes to try and mix in Saturday night. The NAM is showing this possibility…

Northwesterly winds on Sunday will continue to usher in cold air, with highs in the 30s and wind chills down in the 20s. Depending on the exact trajectory of that northwesterly flow, a few flurries may fly, especially across the mountains of eastern Kentucky. The GFS Ensembles keep showing the flurry chance…

A few flakes possible… Nothing more… A few flakes possible… Nothing more… Got it? ๐Ÿ™‚

Speaking of flakes… those same Ensembles show the potential for additional flakes over the next 2 weeks…

Flakes.

I continue to watch the operational runs of the GFS, Canadian and European Models change from one run to the next… Sometimes in dramatic fashion. There’s so much action in the Pacific, they are going to keep struggling right on into Thanksgiving week.

Tonight at 6 is my winter forecast on WKYT. Last year broke my string of hitting 3 consecutive bold predictions, so I’m itching for my rematch with Old Man Winter. ๐Ÿ™‚

Speaking of winter’s around here, for those who aren’t paying attention, the majority of our winters over the past 10 years have been colder and snowier than normal, with NUMEROUS historic events. We’ve only had 2 dud winters, last year and the winter of 2011/12.

I know those facts don’t fit the agenda of the hit and run weather trolls in our region, but they keep trying. ๐Ÿ™‚

In terms of the winter ahead, the new seasonal run of the Jamstec is showing two positive signs for winter lovers. A weak, east based La Nina and a tongue of warmer water off the west coast of the United States…

I will have at least one update today, but it’s obviously going to be a little busy for me with the winter forecast tonight. Oh and it’s our station’s Thanksgiving dinner this afternoon, so if I’m a little groggy on air tonight… Blame the turkey. ๐Ÿ˜‰

Have a good one and take care.