A Weather Fight Brewing

Good Friday to one and all. We have a heck of a weather fight taking shape amongst the weather indicies I look at from across the globe. It’s a battle between cold and mild signals that will have a huge impact on our weather over the next week or so.

I will get to that in a bit, but let’s talk about the short-term forecast first.

Today is a windy and milder day with temps in the 50s for those holiday shoppers. Gusty winds continue into Saturday as a weak cold front drops in from the northwest. This may touch off a shower or two, with wind gusts hitting 30mph at times.

Blustery winds knock our temps back into the 40s on Sunday, but another big wind change comes back early next week. That’s when we focus on a system rolling in from the plains states. The models show a bowling ball type system, with colder air behind it…

The European is similar, but with more in an interesting look…

I mentioned in my earlier posts about a big weather fight brewing amongst the various indicies I look at. We have some pointing cold, with some pointing mild over the next week and change.

In the cold corner, we have the AO and NAO. Both are forecast to be negative into early December…

 

Usually, that’s a healthy signal for significant cold across the eastern half of the country. But, we find the signals in the Pacific are fighting the blocking signals showing up. Look how positive the forecast is for the Western Pacific Oscillation…

 

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation isn’t as positive, and takes on more of a neutral look by early December. The WPO signal is usually a mild one for the eastern half of the country.

In recent years, I’ve been trying to learn more and more about the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is basically an index tracking the tropical precipitation anomalies, generally in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The placement and intensity of the MJO plays a big role in the overall weather across North America. The current MJO forecast is for it to enter into Phases 3, 4 and 5 over the next 2 weeks…

European

GFS

There isn’t much amplitude on either of those forecasts, and the lower the amplitude, the weaker the impact it has on our weather.

The various phases of the MJO give us different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the country, depending on the month of the year. The temperature composites for this time of year show a milder look for phase 3, with a weakening of that into Phase 4, with a colder look as it enters phase 5…

Again, though, the lower the amplitude of the MJO, the less of an impact it has on our weather and can be overridden by other forces like the NAO or AO.

The GFS keeps showing the cold signals winning the battle as we head into December. Watch the troughs dig in…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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17 Responses to A Weather Fight Brewing

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Headed out for a little early shopping. Have a great day evryone

  2. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Ah, Black Friday…..the great aligning of consumerist and capitalist greed.

  3. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, Hope you and your family had a great Thanksgiving Day. The weather couldn’t have been more perfect. Your weather blog this morning is extremely interesting and very educational. I have learned more about meteorology since I’ve been reading your weather blogs. All of us really appreciate the work and time you spend informing us on the Kentucky Weather Center. Everyone, have a safe and enjoy the holiday weekend.

  4. DJC says:

    If a fight is brewing between the heat and snow misers, Mr. Heat Miser always kicks Mr. Snow to the curb around these parts.

  5. MarkLex says:

    This post is way beyond my weather knowledge. LOL

  6. Mike says:

    Wow – I just wanted to know what today would be like… (Actually, I really like the techno weather stuff even if I don’t always understand it.)

    Now, my real question: When should we see our first flakes?

  7. Troy says:

    Looking forward to our first “festive flakes” and a couple of our usual (in my neck of the woods) “shoe sole biters”, and last but not least…even though winter hasn’t really begun, looking forward to an early spring.

  8. Cold Rain says:

    First week of Dec. does look mild..Long as the blocking keeps showing up should get rid of the troughing out west and the SE ridge..Believe as we head into better climo we may have something to track in the 2nd or 3rd week of Dec..Just a guess..Also should be about time for the GFS to start with it’s fantasy snow as the pattern looks good to me after the 7th..We shall see..

  9. Matt says:

    Goodness, what a beautiful stretch of weather we’re having. Sunny and 60.

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