Friday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. Nice weather continues for Holiday travelers and all those Black Friday shoppers out there. It looks like the pattern remains calm for the rest of the weekend, even as a cold front drops in from the north. The longer range battle continues between the cold and mild signals.

Saturday is a very windy day with a cold front zipping in from the north. This doesn’t have much moisture with it, so any rain chances are very small.

Colder air comes in behind this for Sunday, with the coldest highs across central and eastern Kentucky. Here’s the NAM…

The models keep a few flurries flying awfully close to eastern and northeastern parts of the state…

Those chilly winds will mild up on Monday, as another southwesterly push of air moves in. Temps will then be mild through the middle of the week, but a bowling ball of a system moves in here by Thursday and Friday…

As you can see, it does tap some colder air into our region as it passes through here. Can that throw  wet flake into the rain at some point? Meh… We shall see.

Temps rebound behind that, but the cold signals I’ve shown you of late continue like they will win the battle as we head into December. It’s rare we get every single set of Ensembles to show the exact same setup, but they are doing that late in the first week of December.

Notice all the blocking over the top, with a deepening trough across the eastern half of the country…

European Ensembles

European Control

GFS

Canadian Ensembles 7 day average centered around the same time…

That’s pretty wild to see every single Ensembles package showing almost the same look across all of North America. This happens as our blocking signals actually grow stronger, while the current mild signals grow weaker and even disappearing. If they go away entirely… Look out.

Have a great evening and take care.


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2 Responses to Friday Evening Update

  1. Claydar says:

    540 thickness is so far north on those that we are going to need some impressive dynamics to get it cold enough for snow. My concern is cold air oozing in at the surface and warm air up and over. You know what that means… Thoughts?

  2. MarkS says:

    I may be the only one that feels this way, but can’t help but think after looking at some of these early patterns, that we maybe waiting for the “frontloaded” winter, as we waited on the “backloaded” winter last season, only to never really materialize….seems like we get in that rut in this area for a few years at time on occasion.

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