Good Saturday, everyone. Our loooooooong Thanksgiving holiday weekend rolls on as a cold front drops into the region from the north. This will knock the temps back down for Sunday, but another bounce back is likely into the first half of next week. After that… we trend down, again.
Today is a windy day with our cold front moving in. It’s a mainly dry day, but a sprinkle or light shower can’t be ruled out.
The air coming in here for Sunday is a seasonal brand of cold, but the Hi Res NAM has trended a little colder with the afternoon temps, especially across the north and east…
Southwesterly winds will quickly kick in early next week, boosting our temps through Wednesday. This is when we find an interesting little system crossing the country, pulling down much colder air with it. The European Model has a rain maker later Thursday, with a mix of rain and snow for some on the first day of December…
The Euro has a colder than normal first few days of December…
The GFS is actually similar to the European Model, with rain on Thursday and the chance for a Friday mix…
The models have been trending deeper with that trough in recent runs, so let’s see if that continues in the coming days. I suspect we are seeing the blocking signals flexing a little muscle on the models.
Speaking of those blocking signals and flexing some true muscle, the Ensembles keep showing just that later in the first full week of December…
Yowza.
The CFS 7 day average from December 8-15 has the same blocking and shows a deep trough across the eastern half of the country…
I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Saturday and take care.
Good morning, folks. In my quest to understand… I know to pay attention to the “540 line” when I hope for snow. At times I see maps with a blue 540 line and with others, I see a red one. Do they mean different things? what’s that difference? I think it is something about the thickness of the atmosphere at certain pressures. (I think layers of a wedding cake were some layers are thicker than others…)
Any help?
Mike : This link may help http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/97/
Red isotherms are the warmer and the blue are the coldest.
This involves a lot of math, which makes it difficult for me to understand. LOL
Thelma Lou don’t know much about reading those models, but the last one has a lot of red in it, even if the blue is right on top of us. Sooner than later the blue temps are gonna move on. I would rather the first half of December be above and the second half below normal. But as The Stones say “You can’t always get what you want”
I just saw this, the US snow cover was at 26% 2 weeks ago and now it stands at a pathetically sad 4%. Until the plain states start to develop and maintain a snow cover it gets hard for us folks in the Ohio Valley to get a snow. You need the snow pack in the plain states to develop and help drive the storm track further south.
We still have time for all of that to change. I hope, I am trying to think positive for a snowy winter.
I would love to see some snow over the Christmas school break for the kids. I just wonder if this turns out as that front loaded winter but with little snow and then a lot of cold rain. Cold rain is a common thing here but it would be nice to at least hit some snow before things start staying warmer than normal.
I can say today has been great. Temps. seem to be higher than what I had seen anywhere. 64 at my place and feels great. Wondering if things can stay warm for a bit outside of the occasional 50 day. Then maybe a big cold spell with snow for the break.